Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I think the 'mobility' will be a tad more interesting than mundane zoneality.  The ECM is only disappointing if one expects the here and now northern blocking.  I thought it is a fab run and pretty much on the money generally and t240 is Atlantic shutdown after that.  Funny how we get such an update from Fergie today and one or 2 runs have caused folk to wobble.  

 

BFTP

No wobble from me BFTP, I just agree with Geordiesnow in as much as I think expectations need to be tempered somewhat. Even if the overall pattern of late Nov into Dec is a blocked one, we still can't be sure that the UK will benefit. Nice to feel that we at least have a ticket into the raffle though!

[mcweather]

1 minute ago, ITSY said:

History should be a warning that the models can show whatever they want, but unless the folks at the Meto are aligned, it's all pretty much academic. After Fergie's update, and subtle hints on the ECM and GFS of height rises somewhere to our NW in low res, I would be far happier now than at any stage in the last few winters. 

Good post Itsy.  The basic facts have been that Fergies updates and the Glosea and ECM long rangers have all pointed to the end of the month as being the time when things could get interesting and if that's the case one wouldn't expect to any spectacular winter charts showing up until after mid month really. So its case of sit tight and wait for the start of hopefully good things to show up on the medium range charts probably in about 7-10 days time.

There are lots of things in our favour for cold.  What would be great to see would be an ensemble graph like the ones that appeared in mid November 2010 which showed the 850 hpa temps falling of a cliff. That's when we knew it was game on for that amazing December.

[Day 10]

I am interested to see where we are from around about 20th November, will this be the time that we really start to get excited? Any near term vortex organization appears to be short-lived. And by the time we get to day 10 we are into the last part of November, ever closer to winter so any cold outbreaks will be getting colder. I mean just look at the vortex from last year to what is being forecast in 10 days time! Yes I know it's day 10 but I am purely showing how much better things STILL look heading into winter proper. LONG MAY IT CONTINUE...

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z indicates sunshine and showers on thursday followed by a spell of rain slowly pushing in from the west during friday into saturday but the Azores high ridges into the uk during the weekend which continues into early next week with a few days of more settled weather, especially across the south although not completely dry as a band of showery rain pushes southeastwards on Monday but the main feature is it's turning much milder for a time..but lowering heights from the NW during next week pushes cooler / fresher and increasingly unsettled weather down across the uk.

Edited November 8, 2016 by Frosty.

[phil nw.]

I guess today's runs are a reminder that although we have +ve ht anomalies over the pole against climatic norm- at this time of year we still see lower pressure to our north unless those anomalies are outstandingly high.

GEFS T240hrs for example Anomalies and actual 500hPa pattern

 

Looking at that would signify a slightly -ve AO but not enough to expel the cold far enough south hence we are in a cool cyclonic pattern.'

Stronger Arctic heights and therefore a more deeply -ve AO would push the jet much further south putting us on the polar side of the pattern.It's early days yet and the weaker pv is certainly something different for mid-November which should keep us all interested.

 

[bobbydog]

14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

No wobble from me BFTP, I just agree with Geordiesnow in as much as I think expectations need to be tempered somewhat. Even if the overall pattern of late Nov into Dec is a blocked one, we still can't be sure that the UK will benefit. Nice to feel that we at least have a ticket into the raffle though!

On the flip side of that, I'm not sure why people think we need to have a blocking high constantly in place throughout autumn, or at least November, to get a decent winter. It doesn't work like that. (Which of course you know) the vast majority of our 'memorable' winters have  actually been a few (or even just a couple of) weeks of decent snowfall. Consistency is very rare. The chances this winter however, are looking better than they have done probably since 2010. Just to make a point for those who are pessimistic (Not suggesting you are CC) but based on the 'constant blocking' theory, who would have had confidence about winter based on this from 2009?-

Similar to charts we see modelled now but we all know how that turned out...

[Gael_Force]

10 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Similar to charts we see modelled now but we all know how that turned out...

Aye, and great blocking charts for mid November don't always lead to a great winter.

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

40 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

No wobble from me BFTP, I just agree with Geordiesnow in as much as I think expectations need to be tempered somewhat. Even if the overall pattern of late Nov into Dec is a blocked one, we still can't be sure that the UK will benefit. Nice to feel that we at least have a ticket into the raffle though!

Indeed not Aaron and of cse it is a lottery.....but we are in the lottery this time which is fun

 

BFTP

[A.J]

model discussion only please.....cheers

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All! Even if you go out to T+240 hrs you will see gfs and ecm show rather cold unsettled conditions and of course that is normal for November .All that is a long off and in between time blocking to our east is likely! A blocked pattern is a very interesting one with more twists and turns than I can sneeze!

Edited November 8, 2016 by ANYWEATHER

[Mattias]

44 minutes ago, mcweather said:

Good post Itsy.  The basic facts have been that Fergies updates and the Glosea and ECM long rangers have all pointed to the end of the month as being the time when things could get interesting and if that's the case one wouldn't expect to any spectacular winter charts showing up until after mid month really. So its case of sit tight and wait for the start of hopefully good things to show up on the medium range charts probably in about 7-10 days time.

There are lots of things in our favour for cold.  What would be great to see would be an ensemble graph like the ones that appeared in mid November 2010 which showed the 850 hpa temps falling of a cliff. That's when we knew it was game on for that amazing December.

I also think we should have some patience, the signal for the end of November and beginning of December is indeed very promising. Of course the reliability in the extended range forecasts is limited, but it should also be remembered that the predictability is highly flow dependent. Even though the models have shown some large spread lately I think there are some good reasons to believe in the quite strong signals that are shown in the outer range of the 10 days forecasts now. One reason is that we are seeing an increased amplitude of MJO in phase 6-8 which is correlated with rising heights in the Greenland area with a lag of about 10 days, which is consistent with the signal in the models.

It has also been shown that the skill in the extended-long range forecasts is increased when there is a significant MJO-amplitude in the initial state, which is the case right now.

Secondly the weak stratospheric vortex and the displacement towards Scandinavia and northern Russia should favor some high latitude blocking in the second half of November. The zonal winds at 10 hPa 60N today is actually weaker than all years in the Era interim record for this date! To me the evolution in the stratosphere seems to be quite similar to 2009 when we we had a strongly displaced vortex in the mid November.  

[Geordiesnow]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I think the 'mobility' will be a tad more interesting than mundane zoneality.  The ECM is only disappointing if one expects the here and now northern blocking.  I thought it is a fab run and pretty much on the money generally and t240 is Atlantic shutdown after that.  Funny how we get such an update from Fergie today and one or 2 runs have caused folk to wobble.  

 

BFTP

I just feel what we seen in today's output is quite simply that the PV over Greenland could be more stubborn than people may suggest it will be and that a proper ridge towards Greenland and Greenland blocking is not a gurantee where you felt in some posts it was looking like it was a virtual gurantee.

On the face of it, the ECM is dissapointing for the reasons I given, it does show what people have been highlighting but its too far out and I'm always wary about the ECM at that range when it comes to amplification as many people are.

Certainly not going to expect any wintry charts in the short to medium term because the trends are for mild to even exceptionally mild with the Azores high nearby but I like to hope the Russian high is not going to retreat back to its normal place thus shoving the cold block/PV way back towards Siberia. Something like this morning's ECM or even to an extent this afternoon GFS run will be fine because at least then its something different and if that cold block is there you can't ever rule out it could head westwards if things fall into place.

 

[bluearmy]

the updated eps extended are changed from previous runs whereby post day 10, the marked w European upper trough has gone and there are no amolmolys to our west and slightly raised euro high anomolys. Given the change from previous continuity, suspect we need to wait for the next run before drawing any  conclusions . 

 

[Ice Day]

Apologies if this has already been posted, but it's BBC weatherman Simon King's take on the current state of the polar vortex and the potential effect it could have on our upcoming winter.  Whilst it's a bit 'dumbed down' for the masses, it's interesting all the same.

https://twitter.com/hashtag/PolarVortex?src=hash

They also ran the story on Radio 5Live earlier so expect screaming headlines from the Daily Express tomorrow.

 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the updated eps extended are changed from previous runs whereby post day 10, the marked w European upper trough has gone and there are no amolmolys to our west and slightly raised euro high anomolys. Given the change from previous continuity, suspect we need to wait for the next run before drawing any  conclusions . 

 

Hmmmm, not keen on that Blue, i did notice the cold beginning to 'bottle up' over Greenland on the ecm12z. Interesting nonetheless..

[Banbury]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I think the 'mobility' will be a tad more interesting than mundane zoneality.  The ECM is only disappointing if one expects the here and now northern blocking.  I thought it is a fab run and pretty much on the money generally and t240 is Atlantic shutdown after that.  Funny how we get such an update from Fergie today and one or 2 runs have caused folk to wobble.  

 

BFTP

Totally agree with that , as I say Fergie's updates are worth their weight in gold .......................especially with the volatility of the models

[winterof79]

47 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Indeed not Aaron and of cse it is a lottery.....but we are in the lottery this time which is fun

 

BFTP

PV attempts to muster some fight around 96z but alas it is too weak

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=96&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

Same on GEM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=1

 

Steady as she goes.....no worries here and a dumping of snow tonight here in the Southern Pennines

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmmm, not keen on that Blue, i did notice the cold beginning to 'bottle up' over Greenland on the ecm12z. Interesting nonetheless..

Yes, that's horrendous news, wasn't expecting that, there is some good news, the greens are showing up on the radar just a tiny bit east of us now replacing some of the blues.

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmmm, not keen on that Blue, i did notice the cold beginning to 'bottle up' over Greenland on the ecm12z. Interesting nonetheless..

Greenland uppers remain above average with slightly raised anomolys in that area. 

[Ali1977]

It's just one 10 day ECM, and FI GFS , they will be different tomorrow - but the NH still looks good - just need some luck now.

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

It's just one 10 day ECM, and FI GFS , they will be different tomorrow - but the NH still looks good - just need some luck now.

Over analysis will always be an issue and lead to Prozac increase unfortunately

[Methuselah]

I generally have more faith in the stuff that Fergie posts, than I do with what any of the 'usual' models are predicting 10+days hence.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

I generally have more faith in the stuff that Fergie posts, than I do with what any of the 'usual' models are predicting 10+days hence.

Agreed, and he was saying colder late Nov not middle so even FI isn't there yet. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the updated eps extended are changed from previous runs whereby post day 10, the marked w European upper trough has gone and there are no amolmolys to our west and slightly raised euro high anomolys. Given the change from previous continuity, suspect we need to wait for the next run before drawing any  conclusions . 

 

I am detecting a change of emphasis in the nearer term, blue. I think (given what Ian F has said) it may well be very end of Nov into Dec before we have another shot at trying to get a cold pattern developing.

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

It's just one 10 day ECM, and FI GFS , they will be different tomorrow - but the NH still looks good - just need some luck now.

not really - the continuity up until this point on the 10/15 day eps has been pretty solid so to suddenly see a run singing a different tune is notable.  It's the 7th and 15 days takes us to the 22nd. remembering that the longer range forecasts are referencing the end of November for the onset of blocking, a more mobile period shouldn't be a surprise.  Having said that, I note the ECM spreads at day 10 showing a mid Atlantic ridge!