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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
17 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

ECM operational is run at much higher resolution, the GFS operational and perturbations all run at the same lower resultion

Not true

there is a thread somewhere which explains all the model output in this regard

ecm is the highest resolution of its peers at both operational and ens level but the GFS op is also running at quite a high res.

incidetnally, the latest FIM is smelling some Atlantic amplification by day ten

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Not true

there is a thread somewhere which explains all the model output in this regard

ecm is the highest resolution of its peers at both operational and ens level but the GFS op is also running at quite a high res.

incidetnally, the latest FIM is smelling some Atlantic amplification by day ten

Okay, ECM was upgraded recently (after last years winter at least) but oper still runs at higher resolution (9 km grid spacing vs 18 for ens)

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JS  

The means charts are never any good when the operational picks up a change-

however with the ECM being a tad volatile you end up with a mixture of the Op being correct then when the Op is wrong ( IE over amplified ) then the mean looked correct.

The op picked out the undercutting clearly before the mean - also the mean was WAY to bullish on pushing the atlantic through...

look at todays 06z GFS for instance -a huge turnaround from westerly to pretty much a dead halt in the atlantic at 144...

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
11 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

^^^ I seem to be forever consigned to quoting blizzard

Anyway, GFS 6z is much further East with the slider than the 0Z at t132

0Z gfsnh-0-138.png    06Z gfsnh-0-132.png?6

Edited by Ravelin
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

^^^ I seem to be forever consigned to quoting blizzard

Anyway, GFS 6z is much further East with the slider than the 0Z at t132

0Z gfsnh-0-138.png    06Z gfsnh-0-132.png?6

Try posting the empty quote and then hiding it? Then start again. It works for me. I think.:D

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

yes the 6z showing gfs to be swinging wildly even pre 150 hrs.i have to say IF did say the other day to watch for the volatility in the output but still!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Just now, johnholmes said:

This post and others like it does suggest I get on my annual soap box

Stop looking at every run and comparing to the last one. For time scales greater than about 144-168h. Compare like with like. By this I mean 00z-00z, 12 to 12 etc. You should get a somewhat less volatile comparison this way. As we head into 'real' winter it might just save some folk from needing to visit their GP for some kind of tranquiliser. It does very little to decrease the nejoyment either. In most cases a comparison at 240h with what the 500mb clutch of anomaly charts shows is also a productive exercise. With a few notable exceptions (the clever bit is deciding which these are!) a synoptic model showing little similarity at 500mb to the 6-10 anomaly charts, especially the NOAA version, will likely be totally different on its next same time output.

end of jh sermon for the winter!

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
5 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

^^^ I seem to be forever consigned to quoting blizzard

Anyway, GFS 6z is much further East with the slider than the 0Z at t132

0Z gfsnh-0-138.png    06Z gfsnh-0-132.png?6

You mean further west!!that is a massive change at such a short time frame!!

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
24 minutes ago, shaky said:

You mean further west!!that is a massive change at such a short time frame!!

Yeah, West , ooops!

More amplification approaching d10...

0Z gfsnh-0-240.png    6Z gfsnh-0-234.png?6

But I'm not taking much from anything this morning until the volatility settles down somewhat. Encouraging though with the ECM going full out amplified and the GFS perhaps trending the same way compared to yesterday. 

Oh, as for the here and now, heavy showers between the sunny spells have been a combination of rain, hail and even sleet here so far this morning and we don't have any real altitude either.

Edited by Ravelin
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Posted
  • Location: SW London
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: SW London

I hope this isn't deemed off topic, but wanted to take the opportunity to share the Winter Special episode of a podcast I created with another NW member. (Which includes model discussion :))

It's called Weathercocks, and the three of us take a lighthearted and hopefully informative look at all things weather.

This week we talk on the storm of '87, White Christmases in the UK and a discussion of recent output, and the physical omens for the coming winter.

There's also a weather-themed quiz "Just Teleconnections", which is in no way at all a clone of Only Connect :D

It's available at: http://weathercocks.buzzsprout.com/ and on iTunes.

Please listen and let me know your thoughts! Thanks.

Weathercocks Img.png

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3 hours ago, bobbydog said:

Challenge accepted....

I give you... 1962

archivesnh-1962-11-20-0-0.png

Then 1965 and '77 for good measure

archivesnh-1965-11-20-0-0.png

archivesnh-1977-11-20-0-0.png

Back to today, great ECM at day 10

ECH1-240.gif

Very different to the GFS

gfsnh-0-240-1.png

Another fun day ahead!

Hello, all, long-term user, not- until now poster.

Indeed, bobbydog, with the vortex like that in 1962, who'd have thought that we'd get the winter which followed?

 

I've done my own reasearch on historical anologues as well, and what I find frustrating is that the colour scheme changes for each year, much like it does sometimes on the operational runs. By this I mean that deep red might signify a particular geopotential height on one run, but another (albeit similar) height on another. It makes trying to compare winters frustratingly difficult!

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

^^^ I think the complaints were with what happened after Nov 9, say the 11th when ECM maintained heights in the Scandi region which we are now clear will not happen. There will be few that argue that ECM rules up to around D7 as the GFS always over does the Atlantic, but D8-10 in the current setup it doesn't lead us up the garden path, because of the seemingly default Atlantic bias. Here is the ECM today v two days ago and GFS 2 days ago:

ECM1-144.gifECM1-192.gifgfs-0-192 (1).png

You can see where the bias is clear. ECM over does heights, GFS overplays the Atlantic, and in the end the middle ground is the solution (possibly). So neither is great, but more importantly when ECM is wrong it is a downgrade for cold lovers as heights tend to never be as strong as their D8-10 charts promise.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

can't post a chart but come Monday night we could see some seriously low temps......double digit sub zero in Scotland anyone?

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

can't post a chart but come Monday night we could see some seriously low temps......double digit sub zero in Scotland anyone?

BFTP

I think I may of got to minus 2 last year - it would be nice to beat that 3.5 weeks away from winter!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

can't post a chart but come Monday night we could see some seriously low temps......double digit sub zero in Scotland anyone?

BFTP

Monday night / Tuesday am does look the frostiest according to the Gfs 6z..I love frost obviously:D

ukmintemp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
17 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I think I may of got to minus 2 last year - it would be nice to beat that 3.5 weeks away from winter!! 

Certainly a decent chance of that I'd say 

IMG_3546.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Those charts are completely undercooked as usual...there will certainly be temps threatening or even breaching minus double digits in Scotland. :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
31 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Those charts are completely undercooked as usual...there will certainly be temps threatening or even breaching minus double digits in Scotland. :cold:

I agree about the gfs, over the snow fields in the highlands will drop to at least minus 10 celsius 14F.:cold-emoji:

 

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
25 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Those charts are completely undercooked as usual...there will certainly be temps threatening or even breaching minus double digits in Scotland. :cold:

they sure are -10c here is quite common  without snow on the ground so more like -15c in the highlands i cant help but think this mornings ECM has gone of on one like a few days ago it did much the same thing then folded as it did last year also:yahoo:

 

ECM1-240.GIF

gfs-0-240.png

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