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November 2016 C.E.T. Forecasts


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A bit earlier than I normally predict - due to other commitments in coming days. I'll go for a chilly 6.3 degrees. A colder than normal start looks likely, perhaps a slight warming mid-late month. There is a strong possibility of it turning out much colder, but I'll be conservative in my estimates. Significant chance of low level snowfall in the north and hard frosts.

A month more like 2008, 2010 and 2012, than 2009, 2011, 2014, and especially 2015.

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Sorry to be a bit dull but I'm going for average-ish: 7.2C. Cooler start but ensembles already suggesting high pressure to collapse towards the UK by 10th - also, I can see the PV getting itself together for the second half of the month and increasingly throwing in a W/WSW flow. Also, cooler-looking synoptics may not result in as cold as could be due to higher sea temps to the north - they'd have to be much more severe or a persistent straight E/NEly. However, the slightly dozy PV may allow a couple of cooler interludes all the same, and hence not an anomalously warm month.

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On 10/24/2016 at 12:28, Lettucing Gutted said:

Hyper Blowtorch Atlantic is the new norm!

 

Rest in pieces 'autumn' 2016!  13C  :(  Last sub 3C November in 1915.  Last sub 4C November in 1925.  Last sub 5C November in 1993.  Last sub 6C November in 2010.

I would absolutely love a synoptic explanation of your thinking.

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5.7C for me please, enough evidence to suggest a rather blocked month, so I suspect dryness will be the big headline, temperatures are hard to tell so I will go for a cool month with plenty of frost and fog, especially as we head deeper into the month. I will say there is an above average chance of a spell of well below average temperatures with the potential for snow.

Tough call really.

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Looking the the outlook charts and, having revised my prediction for November made back at the start of October, I will plump for a CET of 6.8C if I may (and if I may add I think there will be on average 90 mm rainfall over England and Wales as a whole).

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Not sure if right thread to ask but does anyone know where I can find daily averages for my nearest MetO official weather station, if they are even available?   Thanks

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