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Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17

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On 3/16/2017 at 15:16, Gray-Wolf said:

I take it we're done here? Are we just to expect the vortex to fade away from here on in?

Meanwhile how is our QBO reversal coming along? I do not know what another failure to do so would signal for forecasting beyond 2 days as we've seen repeatedly over winter?

So QBOe allows for a wonkier polar Jet and more SSW's or is that not true under these new low ice forced wonky jet/SSW's?

-QBO looks to be coming along nicely now as it strengthens in the upper layers and gradually lowers. More importantly we now have a more normal look vs last year when we were all funky.. Look at the equator on the charts below..

ecmwfzm_u_f240.gif

ecmwfzm_u_f240.gif

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19 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

-QBO looks to be coming along nicely now as it strengthens in the upper layers and gradually lowers.

I posted a tweet from Sam Lilo on the last page, he sees a pretty static situation. 

yP7W71b.jpg

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A final statospheric warming to take place this weekend.

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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So is that us done for another year? And what about the QBO? is that reversal still trundling along as it should?

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https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra2/wind/u60n_10_2016_merra2.pdf

On 4/11/2017 at 12:26, Gray-Wolf said:

So is that us done for another year? And what about the QBO? is that reversal still trundling along as it should?

Slow progress on the QBO but the final warming has occured.

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On 2017-4-28 at 19:00, knocker said:

 

I assuming this is some kind of scoring representation for QBO?  If so, the thing i notice is that the values have been at an extreme (ignoring those during nose dive/plummet to the center in may-jul 16) for about two years now! 

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15 minutes ago, swebby said:

I assuming this is some kind of scoring representation for QBO?  If so, the thing i notice is that the values have been at an extreme (ignoring those during nose dive/plummet to the center in may-jul 16) for about two years now! 

Yup, the multivariate QBO index (MQI) is a method of monitoring the interannual oscillation in equatorial stratospheric zonal winds MQI phase space -the annotation on the plot indicates the pressure level of the relevant wind extrema (e.g. W50 is a westerly wind max at 50mb). I'm afraid if you require a more in depth analysis you will need to consult the strat. experts.

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Without the previous strong EN offsetting things then the eQBO should be far more favourable for next winter. And with solar output descending hopefully we shall see better conditions for wintertime northern blocking. I am already thinking that 2019/20 could be another cold one, but next winter 'less above average' .

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13 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Without the previous strong EN offsetting things then the eQBO should be far more favourable for next winter. And with solar output descending hopefully we shall see better conditions for wintertime northern blocking. I am already thinking that 2019/20 could be another cold one, but next winter 'less above average' .

I find it quite striking that the last few winters have coincided with an uptick in solar activity (relative to levels seen around the last cold winter cluster) and the propensity for striking ENSO events. 

Fitting like a glove come to mind.

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On 5/5/2017 at 19:22, CreweCold said:

I find it quite striking that the last few winters have coincided with an uptick in solar activity (relative to levels seen around the last cold winter cluster) and the propensity for striking ENSO events. 

Fitting like a glove come to mind.

Solar activity this year is going to be between the level of 2010 and 2007 (08 and 09 were completely dead), we have an atmospheric weak Nino (i say atmospheric because i think it's more down to the lack of a Nina rather than a massive ocean driven event in 2015) and if we can end up with a -QBO by winter then actually things would be pretty good looking i think. 

Edited by summer blizzard

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H/t MV

The summer Stratospheric ridge is slightly weaker than normal when compared to the 30y climatology. Not sure what it means, any thoughts?

59171a89643d3_Stratridge.thumb.jpg.6f49b52bc6afdfaf1e08bf3ccf3ffb37.jpg

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4 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Solar activity this year is going to be between the level of 2010 and 2007 (08 and 09 were completely dead), we have an atmospheric weak Nino (i say atmospheric because i think it's more down to the lack of a Nina rather than a massive ocean driven event in 2015) and if we can end up with a -QBO by winter then actually things would be pretty good looking i think. 

I don't think we'll end up with a -QBO at the lower levels but further up the QBO will be easterly. Slight concern is that I've read (on here) it's the QBO in the lower levels which has the greatest effect on the trop as the previous QBO state is 'flushed out' ahead of the reversal.

I don't profess to be a QBO expert though

:unknw:

What I will say though, going beyond next winter...next year could very well be another '8' summer i.e washout. Peak E'ly QBO will probably coincide with summer onset. Funny how these things line up.

Edited by CreweCold

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1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

I don't think we'll end up with a -QBO at the lower levels but further up the QBO will be easterly. Slight concern is that I've read (on here) it's the QBO in the lower levels which has the greatest effect on the trop as the previous QBO state is 'flushed out' ahead of the reversal.

I don't profess to be a QBO expert though

:unknw:

What I will say though, going beyond next winter...next year could very well be another '8' summer i.e washout. Peak E'ly QBO will probably coincide with summer onset. Funny how these things line up.

Just from memory I think summer 1989 was peak easterly QBO and was a great summer so obviously many other factors play there roll too.

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The QBO looks to weaken from it's westerly phase over the next few weeks. EPS Control Zonal Wind Anomaly below. 

+00

IMG_0950.thumb.PNG.3421c6f5fbc4a5f23016a25267a471de.PNG

+360

IMG_0951.thumb.PNG.574cdd71b905fa63c7acd0f688a5822a.PNG

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What surprises me more than anything is that there's no mention which I can find on the web of the strength of this Easterly QBO. The preliminary data for the first two months of the phase at the 10mb level, the first two months at the 15mb level, and the first month at the 10mb level, suggest, taken as an average, that this is very much the strongest Easterly on record. Also, the fall in wind speed between the penultimate and final month of the Westerly at the 30mb level is the second largest on record, and this Easterly may be the first to propagate from the 30mb to the 50mb level in less than 2 months.

 

 

Edited by snowwman

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Good point snowwman, I have been surprised by the pace of both strengthening and downward propagation with this E QBO.

Only recently I was reading an article that suggested the most major contributor to the unusual 1962-63  winter was an exceptionally strong E QBO (if only the Berlin data archive went back that far!).

Let the hype begin :shok::p

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34 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Good point snowwman, I have been surprised by the pace of both strengthening and downward propagation with this E QBO.

Only recently I was reading an article that suggested the most major contributor to the unusual 1962-63  winter was an exceptionally strong E QBO (if only the Berlin data archive went back that far!).

Let the hype begin :shok::p

It does! :)

Read numbers from right (10hPa) to left (70hPa) for progression downwards. Months are the second column on the left.

75bfffa8e097f006d50f00d6ccb5a51c.png

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat

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I recall reading that an Easterly QBO renders the vortex weak only during low solar activity; Karin Labitzke did some research on this. I've noted that when geomagnetic indices have been anomalously weak for a few years or when there's a sudden plunge in said indides (e.g. Ap index), cold winters tend to occur. At the moment, it seems to me that cosmic ray monitors suggest that we're at the sort of level we experienced in 2009 and 2010.

Edited by snowwman
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looking at the table above  if im reading it correctly  it does show a strong easterly qbo at 30Hpan  after only 2 months of a easterly being recorded at 10hPan    is this a good sign?.  or am i reading the chart totally ockerd.

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