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Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17


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Hoping for a cold winter.   Not only because I do like cold, snowy and frosty weather rather than the mild windy wet mush of the last 3-winters but also because I do feel a cold frosty winter may kill off some of these garden pests.  I seem beseiged by slugs and snails and have an awful problem with vine weevil this year - will need to name the house Slug Hall or Weevil Manor soon :D Heres hoping to a cold one.

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As always folk anticipate the onset of winter either with dread or glee and given how the charts are not really showing any real trend as yet,only hints it's probably a good idea not to get to giddy or despondent as of yet,only ma nature knows what's in store and she is a remarkably good keeper of secrets! Patience is required:)

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A little bitof a generalisation for me but it seems as though the seasons have moved along a little,once again we havehad weather in Autumn which has been more summer like and i feel winter months will be more autumn and spring months more winter .We certainly have had patches of this pattern in recent years.

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Living in the southeast I would love a 1987 set up with a scandi high, strong north east winds, sea effect snow and sub zero days followed by a few channel lows for good measure. Not too much to ask?

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Really? And there was my bones screaming 1963 at me! But if we can't have either of those years I suppose I'll just have to settle for 1947 ⛄⛄ sorry, that was in reply to gavin hannah!

Edited by wishfulwinter
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I had a reminder at work today how many people view the weather. Someone said they remembered last winter being really cold in the UK. I had to stifle a laugh. Also seeing the way how people are saying nice seasonal autumn weather is 'freezing cold.' It always makes me smile when I see people at this time of year dressed up like Sir Ranulph Fiennes making an attempt on a fastest antarctic crossing just because the temperature has nudged down a little.

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Don't get me wrong, I do believe Iapennell is a very knowledgeable forecaster. However he is one that is very pessimistic about cold weather in this day and age. This does of course drive his thoughts a lot when it comes to forecasting the Autumn and Winter seasons. He's by no means alone of course and indeed he has been right during the last 3 Winters as they did indeed lack cold weather. He does put forth ideas of course to possibly counter mild Winters. This type of thinking alone shows a lack of faith for cold Winters to occur naturally these days (despite such Winters been as recent as 4 years ago). This alone shows a forecasting bias when it comes to seasonal forecasts. And I therefore feel he's unlikely to produce a cold Winter forecast unless somehow it's glaringly likely ones about to occur. There are others of course who almost never forsee a mild dominated Winter and are prone to make sensationalist forecasts, which often don't verify. Of course I do admire his efforts and he's undoubtedly knowledgeable enough to give it a good go. I don't have anything near the skill to do it personally. For that matter I can't even independently interpret the short range models and have to rely on more knowledgeable posters in the MO thread to get a feel for what to expect. So my hat goes off to him in that regard.

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33 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I had a reminder at work today how many people view the weather. Someone said they remembered last winter being really cold in the UK. I had to stifle a laugh. Also seeing the way how people are saying nice seasonal autumn weather is 'freezing cold.' It always makes me smile when I see people at this time of year dressed up like Sir Ranulph Fiennes making an attempt on a fastest antarctic crossing just because the temperature has nudged down a little.

I also remember last year overhearing people talk about how we're supposedly expecting a very cold Winter (clearly believers in Daily Express tosh). In the end it couldn't have been more opposite. I also remember in December 2010 overhearing a colleague state that she was disappointed that her boyfriend was getting her a Winter coat for Chrismas and her complaining that this would be pointless as Winter would be over soon after then (clearly somebody who doesn't realise there's 2 months of Winter after Christmas). Though in fact for that particular Winter she wasn't really wrong as the harshness of that Winter ended on the 27th with the extreme cold behind us by then.

Edited by Walsall Wood Snow
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So....

based on the assumption that the AO comes in sub -1.5 for the month the winter best fit analogue would be 2012/13-

The wildcard being the QBO - as it was recorded westerly again in September - although it didnt change that much from August > Sept toward any more positive-

Also the solar flux this winter will be lower-

as it stands ( as a prediction based on the oct monthly AO ) theres an above average chance of at least one Winter month with an AO below -2.5, correlating around 0.7 to the NAO state...

if I was a betting man there appears to be an above average chance of at least 1 below average month -

A bit like last year - December a very high probability that it was going to be +VE

its not about definates - its about probabilities-

 

S

Edited by Steve Murr
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There we have it guys. We've finally sent someone nuts by moaning about mild rampers!!!! 

Nice one Ian. I for one think that sounds like a well balanced, thought out forecast. With a fair chance of it coming into fruition. . . . Let the dream continue guys°°°° 

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On ‎04‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 18:47, MidnightSnow said:

As much as I love snow more than anything, all I hope for is some proper cold, frosty mornings. Snow would just be a bonus.

Your right there mate.  Post April 2013 I have nary even seen an air frost at the crack of dawn let alone an ice day or snow day.  It feels like the Atlantic is deliberately conspiring to deprive us of any sort of cold snap these days, even the sort of throwaway topplers you could take for granted that would occur at least once a month are now as rare as hens teeth..

Edited by Lettucing Gutted
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1 hour ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

There we have it guys. We've finally sent someone nuts by moaning about mild rampers!!!! 

Nice one Ian. I for one think that sounds like a well balanced, thought out forecast. With a fair chance of it coming into fruition. . . . Let the dream continue guys°°°° 

Don't know about nuts but does have the ground work for a good sci-fi novel set in some post apocalyptic world.

-40 is ok if you have the gear but even the most up to date building regs in the UK don't cut the mustard for those temps.

I think my wife would force me at gun point to head for southern Italy.

Spent many a happy time in the Arctic and on the Greenland ice caps but alas can't get my beloved to go for winter hols in the Alps or Scandi anywhere at anytime.  

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1 minute ago, moorlander said:

Don't know about nuts but does have the ground work for a good sci-fi novel set in some post apocalyptic world.

-40 is ok if you have the gear but even the most up to date building regs in the UK don't cut the mustard for those temps.

I think my wife would force me at gun point to head for southern Italy.

Spent many a happy time in the Arctic and on the Greenland ice caps but alas can't get my beloved to go for winter hols in the Alps or Scandi anywhere at anytime.  

Sounds great but I might have to upgrade to double glazing for that event.. :rofl:

I do recommend everyone experiencing a sub -40c at least once though it is quite an amazing experience and does strange things to your clothing as everything becomes crunchy and brittle.

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12 minutes ago, Nights King said:

I do recommend everyone experiencing a sub -40c at least once though it is quite an amazing experience and does strange things to your clothing as everything becomes crunchy and brittle.

couldn't agree more. should be on everyone's top ten bucket list. plus you get to see the MOST amazing light show that nature has in her locker

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2 hours ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

There we have it guys. We've finally sent someone nuts by moaning about mild rampers!!!! 

Nice one Ian. I for one think that sounds like a well balanced, thought out forecast. With a fair chance of it coming into fruition. . . . Let the dream continue guys°°°° 

This, unfortunately is NOT my prediction for Winter 2016-17 which one can read here: 

 

It is, instead a description of my Utopian Winter, the sort of weather that would fill me with great excitement. Alas, it is not going to happen either this year or next but let's see what this Grand Solar Minimum (the Solar Constant falling, on average, to it's lowest in the 2030's) actually brings. Hopefully a major volcanic eruption will coincide with this decade of the Cool Sun, and the combined cooling effects much more than overwhelm the effect of CO2 concentrations that by then will be approaching 500 ppm by volume of the atmosphere. Then we could get a couple of very severe winters indeed, although I doubt it will become as extreme as the winter described above!! 

Edited by iapennell
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The February disruption in the QBO looked like putting the spanner in one of the possible cold influencing factors of this winter, here's a recent paper published on it, unfortunately its not accessible in full without an "institutional access" which I don't have.

Quote

Abstract:

One of the most repeatable phenomena seen in the atmosphere, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) between prevailing eastward and westward wind jets in the equatorial stratosphere (approximately 16 to 50 kilometers altitude), was unexpectedly disrupted in February 2016. An unprecedented westward jet formed within the eastward phase in the lower stratosphere and cannot be accounted for by the standard QBO paradigm based on vertical momentum transport. Instead, the primary cause was waves transporting momentum from the Northern Hemisphere. Seasonal forecasts did not predict the disruption, but analogous QBO disruptions are seen very occasionally in some climate simulations. A return to more typical QBO behavior within the next year is forecast, although the possibility of more frequent occurrences of similar disruptions is projected for a warming climate.

 

I think it is of great interest for those with a liking for cold (me included as I want to see a big freeze on the veg patch to get rid of this year's slug plague) with Siberian snow cover advancing very quickly in early October, increased late hurricane activity and what should have been an easterly QBO phase, what effect this will have on the potential for a colder than average winter.

If anyone does have an OpenAthens type subscription, I'd love to see the whole paper. http://science.sciencemag.org/content/353/6306/1424

 

Edited by David Morse
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