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Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Weather Online's monthly outlook

    Quote

     

    Valid from 10/12 to 06/01 2017

    Issued: Tuesday 6th December 2016
    Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

    Cool and mild air battling it out over the UK & Ireland through December

    A real weather battleground across the UK through December. Mild air to the west and cooler air to the east will be trying to establish dominance over the UK and Ireland. Current thoughts are that the cooler weather wins out, this bringing drier than average conditions to the east, although wetter in the west with the highest risk of rain, sleet and snow here.

    *10/12/16 - 17/12/16*

    A mixed week for all.

    Hints of conditions becoming cooler again through this week as higher pressure builds. Winds becoming more southeast to easterly again. There will be some dry conditions, but the risk of drizzle and patchy outbreaks of rain is also increasingly likely during the week.

    *18/12/16 - 24/12/16*

    High pressure may stay east of the country in the run-up to Christmas. Critically important is the positon of the high as this will dictate what the wind direction wil be. At this stage we expect an east to southeast wind and for conditions to be cool overall. A risk of some rain or sleet in the west.

    *25/12/16 - 31/12/16*

    Little change with the cooler, east to southeast flow dominating with higher pressure ot the east. Driest in the east, although bands of precipitation trying to get into the west which could turn to sleet and snow for some.

    *1/1/17 - 7/11/17*

    2017 begins chilly and perhaps with a brief more unsettled spell, which could include some sleet or snow. Generally plenty of dry weather again and feeling cool.

     

     

    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/month-ahead.htm

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Early figures show it's not quite a record breaking day but still very mild

    Hawarden 17.0c

    Lossiemouth 16.3c

    Magilligan 15.9c

    Bude 15.4c

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast

    Picture paints a thousand words. All this MOD madness for snow, in December too. I am mid 40's and can count on one hand the number of times there was settled snow on the ground.

     

    snowlying_average_1981-2010_171.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
    19 hours ago, Downburst said:

    Picture paints a thousand words. All this MOD madness for snow, in December too. I am mid 40's and can count on one hand the number of times there was settled snow on the ground.

     

    snowlying_average_1981-2010_171.gif

    If we were getting anything near average then it wouldn't be too bad, but in recent decades the frequency of lying snow has fallen massively. On that chart for 1981-2010 we're in the 5-10 days category, yet from 1988-2016 we've averaged only 2.2 days of lying snow in December.

    If you look at the 1961-1990 chart its considerably higher than the 1981-2010 chart and I imagine when we get the 1991-2020 averages they'll show an equally large drop too.

    It says a lot that we've only had lying snow in two months since December 2010 and nothing measurable on the ground for nearly 4 years now. Its highly unusual and hopefully not a trend of things to come.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Quite frankly it should not take that much for lowland UK to get a day or two of snow that settles in Dec on a regular basis, I mean it regularly snows in Greece, Southern Italy, Turkey, Ciprus, The holy land and Middle East Generally, Egypt, Lybia, Morocco, Iraq......The other day it was snowing on high ground in of all places Hawaii!!!

    Just seems that we lock in a mild patern that goes on and on for ever once it gets started, and we regularly end up with the juicy Winter set ups and charts just outside of Winter proper, look at the great charts we had in Oct/Nov 2016! Bet we see fab Northern blocking in April, May, June next year....

    And we don't even need a particularly negative AO, NAO or a mega Greenland High in the UK, remember Dec 1981 anyone? The PV just has to drop down over us once in a while instead of North America!

    archives-1981-12-4-0-0.png

    archivesnh-1981-12-12-0-0.png

    archivesnh-1981-12-12-0-1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
    30 minutes ago, reef said:

    If we were getting anything near average then it wouldn't be too bad, but in recent decades the frequency of lying snow has fallen massively. On that chart for 1981-2010 we're in the 5-10 days category, yet from 1988-2016 we've averaged only 2.2 days of lying snow in December.

    If you look at the 1961-1990 chart its considerably higher than the 1981-2010 chart and I imagine when we get the 1991-2020 averages they'll show an equally large drop too.

    It says a lot that we've only had lying snow in two months since December 2010 and nothing measurable on the ground for nearly 4 years now. Its highly unusual and hopefully not a trend of things to come.

    ill think you will find the chart is annual snow lying days not just December... in that case then 2.2 would be about right for December if the annual rate is 5-10.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
    14 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

    ill think you will find the chart is annual snow lying days not just December... in that case then 2.2 would be about right for December if the annual rate is 5-10.

    Yes, the mean number of days for December in Dublin Airport is 3, 1961 to 2000. However means are somewhat misleading since 2010 and one or two other periods drive that figure up. Checking Met.ie I can see that the mean number of years (Dublin Airport) between 2cm (or more) lying snow is 2 years. So from 1947 to 2011 one can expect 2 CM (or more) of SNOW in December on the ground about every two years. Figure for 10cm or more is every 7 years.

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    I'm moving back to Edmonton next month...there the average number of days of lying snow annually is an eye watering 133 days! :wallbash:

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    Posted
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim

    Looks like December 2016 is pretty much a right off as far as cold weather is concerned. Charts are dire now, right up until the 24th.

    Heck, even the BBC have said there's nothing remotely wintery on the horizon..

    I hope January is better, but I'm not optimistic, despite the long range "winter forecasts".

    Oh to live in somewhere like Edmonton.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Its as if on 1st of December someone switched a switch!:closedeyes:

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    Posted
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
    2 hours ago, snowray said:

    Its as if on 1st of December someone switched a switch!:closedeyes:

    Our switch started the Friday before. It was bright, cold and frosty up until then but cloudy and relatively mild since Friday the 25th.

    Winter has gone pear shaped after the really promising start. Temperature yesterday was up to 16C here

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Mobile at work, settled when I'm off :)
  • Location: Isle of Man

    There was lots of mention in the longer range seasonal predictions for a 'front loaded' winter, with blocking and cold more likely than not, and for a while there it was looking like it was happening, but we've just had this change to mild SW'ly's. I like a winter high overhead, with cold frosty nights, and calm bright days. It's a weather type we hardly seem to get these days, even in the 'traditional' slot of late winter/February. We're due some cold though, after the last few winters.

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    Posted
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
    1 hour ago, WeatherManx said:

    There was lots of mention in the longer range seasonal predictions for a 'front loaded' winter, with blocking and cold more likely than not, and for a while there it was looking like it was happening, but we've just had this change to mild SW'ly's. I like a winter high overhead, with cold frosty nights, and calm bright days. It's a weather type we hardly seem to get these days, even in the 'traditional' slot of late winter/February. We're due some cold though, after the last few winters.

    After a strong blocking high throughout most of October and November, I was optimistic about this winter, but it's all changed now. Those clear crisp sunny days were the frost didn't lift all day was what ii remember winters were like when I was young.

    We always got at least one or two snow events throughout the winter. A snowless winter was unheard of. Now they're common place and snow during the winter is rare. What has happened to our climate.

    The winter of 2009/10 was what all winters were like when I was young.

    I have the dreaded feeling this one's shaping up to be yet another snowless frost free affair.

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
    12 hours ago, reef said:

    If we were getting anything near average then it wouldn't be too bad, but in recent decades the frequency of lying snow has fallen massively. On that chart for 1981-2010 we're in the 5-10 days category, yet from 1988-2016 we've averaged only 2.2 days of lying snow in December.

    If you look at the 1961-1990 chart its considerably higher than the 1981-2010 chart and I imagine when we get the 1991-2020 averages they'll show an equally large drop too.

    It says a lot that we've only had lying snow in two months since December 2010 and nothing measurable on the ground for nearly 4 years now. Its highly unusual and hopefully not a trend of things to come.

    But it has been the trend for the past 3 decades, if not longer. The UK's climate is clearly warming, the frequency of snow and frost is decreasing.

    Are people really surprised? It's not just us. Places like Scandinavia and Alaska are warming faster than pretty much anywhere else in the world excluding the North Pole. I believe large parts of Scandinavia are expected to lose around 20 snow days by the end of this century. Helsinki would have a climate more like modern-day Budapest if current trends continue.

    Just the way things are.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Who wants to club together and fund a trip to Turkey, Italy or Cyprus next week?!

    Paul Stevens BSc ‏@Huddsweatherman

    "Looking further ahead towards Christmas & beyond there is little chance of cold & snow if any at this stage just patchy frost & fog. You are more likely to get sub-zero temperatures & snow in Athens & Cyprus & Sardinia than Hudds next week than in the UK"

    Back on Dec 1st when we were in the cold air he said

    "No signs of deep winter cold this side of Christmas just yet".

    You know he might well be right...

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
    12 hours ago, cheese said:

    But it has been the trend for the past 3 decades, if not longer. The UK's climate is clearly warming, the frequency of snow and frost is decreasing.

    Are people really surprised? It's not just us. Places like Scandinavia and Alaska are warming faster than pretty much anywhere else in the world excluding the North Pole. I believe large parts of Scandinavia are expected to lose around 20 snow days by the end of this century. Helsinki would have a climate more like modern-day Budapest if current trends continue.

    Just the way things are.

     

    Not really surprised and if anything it'll get worse over the decades if current trends continue. What's sad really is how such a small increase in background temperatures is having such a huge difference, especially at sea level and close to the coast. Unfortunately significant lying snow has always been pretty uncommon in said areas, but to get 4 years without anything when the average is around 7 days of lying snow per year on the most recent 30 year average shows how things have changed. I suppose the hope is that we'll get a strong cold setup at some point over the next few years to at least partially balance things out.

    The biggest difference to the 90s and 00s is that usually you could rely on the occasional 2 day toppler to give a couple of cm. These now seem to either be too marginal (due to well above average temperatures to the north), or get shunted out of the way too fast to give anything due to a stronger jet stream. Mild and more importantly, record-breaking mild in winter seems to be more common too.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
    On 12/8/2016 at 13:41, reef said:

    If we were getting anything near average then it wouldn't be too bad, but in recent decades the frequency of lying snow has fallen massively. On that chart for 1981-2010 we're in the 5-10 days category, yet from 1988-2016 we've averaged only 2.2 days of lying snow in December.

    If you look at the 1961-1990 chart its considerably higher than the 1981-2010 chart and I imagine when we get the 1991-2020 averages they'll show an equally large drop too.

    I completely agree that lying snow has become less frequent, but surely the 1981 - 2010 chart for December would be skewed by the inclusion of both Dec 1981 and 2010 in the data?  So it wouldn't really be that realistic to expect that much lying snow in December anyway?

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    The past 5 Decembers have in the main seen very limited or zero lying snow in many lowland parts of England away from the far north, and even here, only a few mornings. Indeed its rare to see lying snow last anything more than a day or two before christmas in an average year. Chances of days with lying snow increase markedly as we reach christmas and are more likely in January and February.

    Overall though since around winter 87/88 the average number of mornings with snow cover has reduced significantly, largely due to a greater dominance of mild westerly/southwesterly airstreams and less in the way of colder continental influences, or arctic influences. The likes of Dec 09, Jan 10 and Dec 10 have been the exception to the rule. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

    Starting at winter 87/88 our winters overall just havent been the same since. The cold spell of jan 87 was the last winter cold spell of our old climate thats the way i look at it,things changed after that.

    We need the sun no to do us favours now which it did 08-10, so on that line of thought i would not be surprised if we dont get a decent winter again until the early 20s.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    18 hours ago, cheese said:

    But it has been the trend for the past 3 decades, if not longer. The UK's climate is clearly warming, the frequency of snow and frost is decreasing.

    Are people really surprised? It's not just us. Places like Scandinavia and Alaska are warming faster than pretty much anywhere else in the world excluding the North Pole. I believe large parts of Scandinavia are expected to lose around 20 snow days by the end of this century. Helsinki would have a climate more like modern-day Budapest if current trends continue.

    Just the way things are.

     

    Its all happened before.... lets come back in a thousand years, and see where a few decades sits in the cycle of peaks and troughs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Just come across this

     

    So according to Madden next week we should be seeing a number of snow events

    And his winter forecast

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
    4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Just come across this

     

    So according to Madden next week we should be seeing a number of snow events

    And his winter forecast

     

    The guy is just dillusional lol but it is entertaining.Think he is talking about North America lol!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
    44 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

    Its all happened before.... lets come back in a thousand years, and see where a few decades sits in the cycle of peaks and troughs.

    I don't intend on living for thousands of years I'm afraid. Good luck to you though!

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