Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[Summer Sun]

Second Winter seasonal Model round-up from Gavin P

The main point from this update is a shift to a milder than average winter though some of the models go against this

[swfc]

On 28/10/2016 at 05:12, Weather-history said:

As soon as he mentioned the Hale cycle, I switched off. Has anyone else notice how the Hale cycle seems to mysteriously started at 1894-95? 

He does it in that report, I have never seen a winter mentioned before 1894-95 being described as a Hale winter. Why? Because it is all vague before 1894. The "pattern" seems to only for after 1894. Never bought the Hale winter cycle idea.

my grandfather told me about a buchanans cold spell which appeared in feb years gone by.alexander buchanan had several months in mind for various conditions ete

Edited October 30, 2016 by swfc

[virtualsphere]

10 minutes ago, swfc said:

my grandfather told me about a bucanans cold spell which appeared in feb years gone by

Possibly Buchan? 

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/179#Buchan

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, virtualsphere said:

Possibly Buchan? 

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/179#Buchan

sorry yes thats the one

[Methuselah]

I do love Gavin P's enthusiasm - whether it's mild or cold, he's always beating the drum, for us weather nuts!

My own thoughts? This winter will be a good bit more interesting (for us coldies) than the last three were. Not that that's all that difficult!

Edited October 30, 2016 by Ed Stone

[Summer Sun]

November to January outlook from WSI

Quote

For the upcoming November–January period, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, is forecasting slightly above normal temperatures across the United Kingdom and Western Europe, with more substantial positive temperature anomalies expected across eastern Europe.

“The colder weather in October, driven by a strong Scandinavian blocking ridge, is not necessarily a sign of things to come this winter,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist, The Weather Company. “We are monitoring this blocking pattern, and if it remains through November, it could indicate a weakened polar vortex that persists through winter, resulting in an increased risk of colder weather for Europe. For now, we are hesitant to embrace the idea of an unusually cold winter, but we do expect abundant intra-seasonal variability that will provide more spells of cold weather than we’ve seen in the last three winters across western Europe. All evidence suggests another unusually mild winter across eastern Europe.”

November Forecast by Region

Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal west, colder than normal east

U.K.* – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland* – Colder than normal

Southern Mainland* – Warmer than normal

December Forecast by Region

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

U.K. – Slightly warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal west

January Forecast by Region

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

U.K. – Slightly warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, colder than normal west

 

https://business.weather.com/blog/european-seasonal-outlook-colder-drier-winter-than-last-3-years-in-western-europe

[weirpig]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

November to January outlook from WSI

https://business.weather.com/blog/european-seasonal-outlook-colder-drier-winter-than-last-3-years-in-western-europe

Well  if the charts verify  as shown  then there forecast is bust before it has even started.    i suppose their forecast all depends on how much blocking we receive in November    lets see

Edited October 31, 2016 by weirpig

[lassie23]

I think that November won't be that cold and snow will arrive late December on wards, a Christmas Eve blizzard anyone?

[Dami]

I expect it will be one small cold snap in the next few weeks then the temperatures will go up till around the middle of January, when snow showers will be a 'possibly' and bedford is clear and sunny.  However come the start of February at approx 3:15 at any given day, it will do an useless heavy  snow shower and stop as we get home.

Christmas will be a mild and cloudy affair. 

Edited October 31, 2016 by Dami

[Guest]

Got a feeling we will see snow early December... A brief warm up before all hell breaks out over Christmas and new year... January will be a stonking month of brutal cold and snow then an early spring break out in Feb before winter roars back in for a grand finale...  failing that i would settle for one 7 day cold and snow outbreak...lol anything is better than last winter one light snowfall in January and that was it... 2014/15 was ok but nothing to get excited about...

[lassie23]

44 minutes ago, Dami said:

I expect it will be one small cold snap in the next few weeks then the temperatures will go up till around the middle of January, when snow showers will be a 'possibly' and bedford is clear and sunny.  However come the start of February at approx 3:15 at any given day, it will do an useless heavy  snow shower and stop as we get home.

Christmas will be a mild and cloudy affair. 

The last cold Christmas here was 2010, but it was just cold, the snow a week earlier had gone and Christmas pretty much marked the end of the cold spell for london, don't think it snowed again that winter have to go back to the time of the dinosaurs, for when we had falling snow on christmas day here.

[markyo]

Think we can safely say now this November will be the most interesting weather wise(model watching) for quite a few years.The ebb and flow of the charts will i suspect keep us all on our toes! Just hope not to many toys are lost when ejected from the prams 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I'd settle for a cold early start to winter like we had in 2010, even if it means a snowless Jan and Feb.  How long will the Atlantic be locked out for?  A largely westerly free Nov and Dec after what we experienced last December would be welcomed by many!

[MP-R]

22 minutes ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

I'd settle for a cold early start to winter like we had in 2010, even if it means a snowless Jan and Feb.  How long will the Atlantic be locked out for?  A largely westerly free Nov and Dec after what we experienced last December would be welcomed by many!

Absolutely! Given Atlantic weather patterns seem a lot harder to break in the first half of the winter when the PV is at its strongest, if we can get through the first half virtually Atlantic-less, we're in a very good position. I can only really remember a handful of completely Atlantic driven Februaries compared to November/Decembers.

[ArHu3]

33 minutes ago, markyo said:

Think we can safely say now this November will be the most interesting weather wise(model watching) for quite a few years.The ebb and flow of the charts will i suspect keep us all on our toes! Just hope not to many toys are lost when ejected from the prams 

I haven't watched followed the model and winter forecasts for very long, in fact only since last year but from what I understand is that 2016 is a year in which unprecedented, unpredicted things happened like the sudden reversal of the QBO, the very early SSW and PV split, immensely hot arctic and incredibly cold snowy Siberia and all the excited tweets from Matt Hugo and Judah Cohen, I think we are in for quite a surprise this winter and the models have no clue...

[markyo]

1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

I haven't watched followed the model and winter forecasts for very long, in fact only since last year but from what I understand is that 2016 is a year in which unprecedented, unpredicted things happened like the sudden reversal of the QBO, the very early SSW and PV split, immensely hot arctic and incredibly cold snowy Siberia and all the excited tweets from Matt Hugo and Judah Cohen, I think we are in for quite a surprise this winter and the models have no clue...

I agree,welcome to the forum! We COULD be on for a good winter,only time will tell. Hoping for that all these signs gel and bring in the goods!

[ArHu3]

16 minutes ago, markyo said:

I agree,welcome to the forum! We COULD be on for a good winter,only time will tell. Hoping for that all these signs gel and bring in the goods!

thanks for the welcome, exciting times, we are heading into the uncharted

[Dami]

I think a december 2010  but move it a week and bobs ya uncle Santa's your aunt 

[Gord]

My own thoughts for the upcoming season is that the thundery June will still win the title of the most interesting month of the year....November and December will have a lot of work to do to get that one.

As for the winter as a whole...not sure I've got the energy to get excited this time around. The last 3 winters have been exhausting in trying to keep some kind of interest.

 

Edited October 31, 2016 by Gord

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Gord said:

My own thoughts for the upcoming season is that the thundery June will still win the title of the most interesting month of the year....November and December will have a lot of work to do to get that one.

As for the winter as a whole...not sure I've got the energy to get excited this time around. The last 3 winters have been exhausting in trying to keep some kind of interest.

 

I'm not so sure, Gord - there are some very high SST's around the UK just now - I think that those of us in coastal regions might be in for something of a convective treat, once the cold uppers spread south?

[Gord]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm not so sure, Gord - there are some very high SST's around the UK just now - I think that those of us in coastal regions might be in for something of a convective treat, once the cold uppers spread south?

That sounds like fun. I grew up in Lowestoft and remember lots of winter convective treats blowing in off the North Sea during the 80s and 90s. You can get some fun weather during the winter on that coast.

[Frost HoIIow]

I think we should get a better Winter this time round, signs are tentatively building. As seen in the past we have had some spectacular Winter weather, I've seen some great snow events and brilliant cold so we can get it. So anticipation for Winter is quite high every year, of course if one lived in Portugal then you wouldn't have any at all (maybe that saves some stress and tapping the f5 button like a loon!) but at least we have a much higher prospect of interesting weather up here on these islands of ours. 

[sundog]

I think that at least the first half of the winter could be very interesting. A good sign in seeing the cold developing early over scandi. With the pv slow to get its act together its like getting a head start.

When the pv does get going as it surely will at some point perhaps it will be weaker then recent yrs and our normal atlantic regime wont have things its own way this winter. I think the atlantic could find it has a real fight on its hands when it does wake from its slumber. I think the cold will put up more of a fight this yr.

Atm its steady as she goes regards hopes for a cold winter.

[matt111]

Anyone seen fergieweather's latest post in the SW regional thread?

[Seasonality]

7 hours ago, matt111 said:

Anyone seen fergieweather's latest post in the SW regional thread?

You mean this one? In answer to being questioned if the atlantic will break through in the foreseeable? Don't be a tease!

7 hours ago, fergieweather said:

It may not (in any pronounced sense)... a very different probabilistic look to the coming weeks ahead ;-)