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Polar Maritime

Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

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1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

fearing the worst, think we'll have to pay for this dry/settled weather, Atlantic to wake up late Nov, leading to one of wettest ever December's, who knows winter like '13-'14, homes flooded for Xmas, always seems to even out, some places maybe had one of driest 0ctobers

Agree things could balance out but with a cold pool of air to tap from and no credible sign of any change we could get one of the snowiest periods in the last few years if conditions allow. 

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You know, all this talk of 'things averaging out', well by the very definition of average it's inevitable that they will. The thing is though, how long will they take to average out? A month? Three months? A year? A decade? If we knew that then long term weather forecasts would be much easier i.e it was drier than average last month therefore it's got to be wetter than average this month, or it was warmer than average last winter so it must be colder than average this winter. It just doesn't work like that though.

It's a bit like the example of tossing a coin. On average if you toss a coin 100 times you'd expect to get 50 Heads and 50 Tails. If you've just had 6 Heads in a row though, although you intuitively might feel that the next toss is more likely to result in Tails, it's not. The probability of a Heads or a Tails on any single throw is still 50/50. There's no 'memory effect'.

Edited by Ravelin
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I don't buy the averaging out either, just look at the last few winters- there was nothing averaging out about them, just wind & rain especially for my region.

 

Snow is a distant memory, only starting getting frost in March this year, the whole Winter was frost free. Where's the averaging out there.

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5 hours ago, Essex snowman said:

I just seen on model thread couple posters saying blocked pattern has vanished overnight on model runs typical for uk looked so good for this winter :-( 

lol that didn't take long to happen, so another mild winter it is then:unknw:

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5 hours ago, Essex snowman said:

I just seen on model thread couple posters saying blocked pattern has vanished overnight on model runs typical for uk looked so good for this winter :-( 

Go back and have another look. They were in the minority and blocked weather is still the form horse. Calm down. It isn't even November.

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The model thread is hilarious reading once it gets to November even though I don't understand any of the charts and clever forecasting stuff!

Regardless, I think I'm right in saying that the chance of a train of typical November storms in the next couple of weeks is fairly unlikely?

 

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2 minutes ago, ManiaMuse said:

The model thread is hilarious reading once it gets to November even though I don't understand any of the charts and clever forecasting stuff!

Regardless, I think I'm right in saying that the chance of a train of typical November storms in the next couple of weeks is fairly unlikely?

 

It's unlikely, but it is still far our and flip flopping isn't that unusual. But it would seem safe to say no signs until the 10th, at least.

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Very unlike me but i think we may be on the cusp of a special winter,there seems to be a well entrenched pattern that continues well into November,not seen that for a long time. I always verge on the side of caution with relation to model output with its broad swings but this October has seen something very different. Due to my travels due to work i have always taken a very close note of the weather,it's been a long time since I've seen such a stable forecast pattern at this time of year. There was nothing like this in 2009 and 2010. This coupled with earlier cooler pooling over Europe means November could be a very very interesting month of model watching!:)

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On 28/10/2016 at 13:24, ManiaMuse said:

The model thread is hilarious reading once it gets to November even though I don't understand any of the charts and clever forecasting stuff!

Regardless, I think I'm right in saying that the chance of a train of typical November storms in the next couple of weeks is fairly unlikely?

 

No body can predict beyond  7-10 days ahead but at least the back ground signals are more interesting this year. Re ,will it rain in two weeks time is still beyond us , which makes it more interesting.

Imagine if we knew with 99% certainty how each of the next 3 months would play out wouldn't that be boring. You may have to talk to the misses rather then catching up on 10 pages of model output potential at T240 when you got home. :)

 

 

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It really is a different set up this  year compared to last. There's hardly a breeze blowing today as I was out walking the dog. Been like that for most of  this month.

Last year was very wet and windy and no sign of anything settled, let alone cold. At least this year we are settled and dry - just need the cold to come our way.

I think what I'm basically trying to say is, I feel we have a better chance of seeing something more of a proper Winter like the one's we used to know:cold-emoji:

Edited by SteveB
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1 hour ago, SteveB said:

It really is a different set up this  year compared to last. There's hardly a breeze blowing today as I was out walking the dog. Been like that for most of  this month.

Last year was very wet and windy and no sign of anything settled, let alone cold. At least this year we are settled and dry - just need the cold to come our way.

I think what I'm basically trying to say is, I feel we have a better chance of seeing something more of a proper Winter like the one's we used to know:cold-emoji:

Too early for cold/snow yet for low southern areas, not sure of date when decent snow becomes possible for south low levels, but reckon around 15th Nov, but late Nov really for deep cold

gonna suck from 1st Nov (south) dismal 6° max temps, rain likely at times, dull and damp! who wants that, I would like Indian Summer

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5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Too early for cold/snow yet for low southern areas, not sure of date when decent snow becomes possible for south low levels, but reckon around 15th Nov, but late Nov really for deep cold

gonna suck from 1st Nov (south) dismal 6° max temps, rain likely at times, dull and damp! who wants that, I would like Indian Summer

I prefer to see what unfolds from this current setup, the fun and games have started a little earlier this year.

As for snow in the South (particularly South West) it is hard to get it, so seeing mega Northern blocking & a disorganised  polar vortex is what I need in order to deliver the goods to my neck of the woods, I can wait for another month, some frost and fog in the meantime is far better than wind and rain

Edited by SteveB

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6 minutes ago, SteveB said:

I prefer to see what unfolds from this current setup, the fun and games have started a little earlier this year.

As for snow in the South (particularly South West) it is hard to get it, so seeing mega Northern blocking & a disorganised  polar vortex is what I need in order to deliver the goods to my neck of the woods, I can wait for another month, some frost and fog in the meantime is far better than wind and rain

but surely the blocking will be waning by the time snow becomes possible 20th ish Nov?

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6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Too early for cold/snow yet for low southern areas, not sure of date when decent snow becomes possible for south low levels, but reckon around 15th Nov, but late Nov really for deep cold

gonna suck from 1st Nov (south) dismal 6° max temps, rain likely at times, dull and damp! who wants that, I would like Indian Summer

Agreed. All this talk and excitement of a cold spell in...early November. Like you said, I'd prefer it to wait for another two weeks and arrive mid month, but that's just me being picky. Ultimately, the weather will do what it wants and if we can get a few flakes and frosts out of it it will be better than nothing. 

My preferred window for proper cold is mid November to Mid March, as it can be severe at any time during that four-month period. Yes, it can get cold and snowy outside of that, but it's normally a bit half hearted, bar exceptional stuff like March 2013, which was colder in the second half. 

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2 minutes ago, March Blizzard said:

Agreed. All this talk and excitement of a cold spell in...early November. Like you said, I'd prefer it to wait for another two weeks and arrive mid month, but that's just me being picky. Ultimately, the weather will do what it wants and if we can get a few flakes and frosts out of it it will be better than nothing. 

My preferred window for proper cold is mid November to Mid March, as it can be severe at any time during that four-month period. Yes, it can get cold and snowy outside of that, but it's normally a bit half hearted, bar exceptional stuff like March 2013, which was colder in the second half. 

Northern members though with elevation, though different story, If I lived there, then bring it on!

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My hopes are generally for cold winters.  However, despite a westerly QBO we have many factors that can assist in a very interesting winter ahead and I think there will be several severe winter events throughout this winter, some 'localised' and some widespread.  A generally negative AO is looking a good bet at the moment and October snowcover in Asia has been very impressive, indeed for me a negative NAO wil; be apparent for a good chunk too .  A very strong Siberain High is likely to hold in place.  The sun is past its peak in this cycle [and its been a weak cycle].  

Even the next week is looking intriguing.  We are going to see us under a very mild regime quickly changing to a much cooler theme and getting even cooler.  We don't get that under a flat jetstream.  Very loopy jetstream to be the general theme aiding blocking and LPs that do attack us to come from steep angles from NW.  Episodes of a displaced Polar Vortex likely

 

BFTP

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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Northern members though with elevation, though different story, If I lived there, then bring it on!

I can do well here from NW winds, in fact some of my biggest falls of snow have come from the NW, polar maritime flows. Early November, though, would probably just bring rain and feel raw. 

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5 minutes ago, March Blizzard said:

I can do well here from NW winds, in fact some of my biggest falls of snow have come from the NW, polar maritime flows. Early November, though, would probably just bring rain and feel raw. 

I know, snowy location that from NW winds

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14 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

but surely the blocking will be waning by the time snow becomes possible 20th ish Nov?

Probably, but nowt any of us can do about it. And as I was once politely told by a fellow work colleague, if you like cold and snow so much, and complain about the fact you don't get any, why don't you f*** off to Siberia.

 

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1 minute ago, SteveB said:

Probably, but nowt any of us can do about it. And as I was once politely told by a fellow work colleague, if you like cold and snow so much, and complain about the fact you don't get any, why don't you f*** off to Siberia.

 

0r Buxton! closer

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Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

0r Buxton! closer

I said I would prefer to go to North America or Canada:D

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Nobody expecting the UK to be in the depth of a deep freeze in mid November, but it's surely good to see the signs that could happen come the end of November, anyway the transition from mild'ish to cold could be quite sudden come nextweek and especially the weekend, who needs the crappy Atlantic.... now where's that scrapper :cold:

 

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In the past, some northern and eastern parts of the UK, including my homeland of South Tyneside, used to pick up lying snow events from northerlies even in most mild winters; 2003/04 particularly sticks out for this.  But with the Arctic seemingly sliding into its second insanely warm winter in a row, it may well be that those areas struggle to see any lying snow even when they catch a northerly straight from the North Pole.  A couple of ridiculously tame northerlies in February 2016 particularly stick out in the memory, when even at Durham, traditionally England's snowiest city, any snow struggled to settle.

On the other hand, if we maintain a lot of cold pooling over Eurasia, there is the potential to pick up some potent easterlies.  But in the meantime, it's currently pretty warm out there for the time of year with temperatures widely in the mid teens by day and holding up above 10C overnight, and despite the cold synoptics October looks set to come out with close to average temperature for the UK.

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Some similarities to the dry Autumn of 2007, La Niña being the main difference, looking Neutral for 2016. October 2007: 10.9CET, November: 7.3CET, December:4.9CET. The Vortex weaker this year so far.

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Edited by Matthew Wilson
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1 hour ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Some similarities to the dry Autumn of 2007, La Niña being the main difference, looking Neutral for 2016. October 2007: 10.9CET, November: 7.3CET, December:4.9CET. The Vortex weaker this year so far.

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Let's just hope we don't get a repeat of Winter like 2007/08 though. I wouldn't mind a repeat of the following Winter of 2008/09 though as that was the first half decent Winter in years at the time.

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