Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[Walsall Wood Snow]

6 minutes ago, stewfox said:

I mean 2016/2017 will follow 1683/4 ..  

1683/1684

""
In the leap year sixteen eighty-four arrived the greatest winter that was ever seen, both for its duration and its rigour. It started to freeze to ice from St. Denis' day, ninth October, which did not last; the freezing started again from the beginning of the month of December 1683, which eased a little before Christmas, and the day after Christmas Day snow started falling so abundantly that one could hardly go from one village to the next, and at the beginning of the said year 1684, the freeze started, so strong and so furious that there was no river that was not frozen, the pools and fishponds drying up as the ice thickened, even right along the coast and in the ports and harbours of St. Valery, Veules and Dieppe the sea was frozen as far as could be seen, The great rigour of the cold lasted until the end of April ""

2016/17

In the year two thousand and seventeen the greatest winter did arrive from mid December 2016 till end of April 2017.CET values that were bequeathed upon us were were -0.5c Dec -2.8c Jan and -1.6c Feb. Forum early melt down in late Nov 2016 based on the the ECM at T240  soon turned to despair as the cold did not relent. No pictures of daffodils were shown till May 2017. Displacement of the polar vortex at this time gave temps of 12c in New York on Christmas day but -4c in Birmingham. Tesco snow shovels did sell out and the following forum threads were open. 'why did the councils not do more', 'no this does not mean the end of global' warming and 'will you be buying the Daily Express for winter forecasts

Brilliant. Though to be honest such a Winter would go beyond even my wildest dreams. I mean every Winter month returning a sub zero CET figure. I can't even imagine.

[syed2878]

i would be happy with a winter like 12/13 anything else well less waight an see.

[cheeky_monkey]

as long as it is dry doesn't really matter whether it is cold or mild...days of cloud and drizzle or rain don't float my boat at all...actually a repeat of the winter 91/2 wouldn't b too shabby at all

[moorlander]

An overall  drier than usual winter with hard frosts would be ok for me.

Of course we would then have to put up with Express headlines of Stand pipes and water bowsers at the ready after winter drought

[summer blizzard]

11 hours ago, stewfox said:

I mean 2016/2017 will follow 1683/4 ..  

1683/1684

""
In the leap year sixteen eighty-four arrived the greatest winter that was ever seen, both for its duration and its rigour. It started to freeze to ice from St. Denis' day, ninth October, which did not last; the freezing started again from the beginning of the month of December 1683, which eased a little before Christmas, and the day after Christmas Day snow started falling so abundantly that one could hardly go from one village to the next, and at the beginning of the said year 1684, the freeze started, so strong and so furious that there was no river that was not frozen, the pools and fishponds drying up as the ice thickened, even right along the coast and in the ports and harbours of St. Valery, Veules and Dieppe the sea was frozen as far as could be seen, The great rigour of the cold lasted until the end of April ""

2016/17

In the year two thousand and seventeen the greatest winter did arrive from mid December 2016 till end of April 2017.CET values that were bequeathed upon us were were -0.5c Dec -2.8c Jan and -1.6c Feb. Forum early melt down in late Nov 2016 based on the the ECM at T240  soon turned to despair as the cold did not relent. No pictures of daffodils were shown till May 2017. Displacement of the polar vortex at this time gave temps of 12c in New York on Christmas day but -4c in Birmingham. Tesco snow shovels did sell out and the following forum threads were open. 'why did the councils not do more', 'no this does not mean the end of global warming' and 'will you be buying the Daily Express for winter forecasts in the future'

I'm not sure we'd see such despair. Many of us in 2010 surprisingly found that the excitement never waned.

[MP-R]

9 hours ago, syed2878 said:

i would be happy with a winter like 12/13 anything else well less waight an see.

I'd be happy to experience that winter too as I was living out of the country, perhaps without the mild wet second half of December though. That was really wet!

[phil nw.]

If any newer or younger members who would like a read up of the Winter of 62/3 as recalled by us,should i say,more senior members then there is an archived thread in the Historic weather section which was started by our Austrian based friend Corinthian-here

I arrived too late for the 47 Winter but as a 14 yo in that 62/3 Winter i thoroughly enjoyed it-what a classic! 

Like many i always hope for some lying snow-even at my age i appreciate it's beauty,although these days with the amount of traffic moving around i can understand there would be more problems for many.

If not snow then i would like some crisp frosty and bright weather under a cold high, but anything apart from the mild,grey and damp Atlantic dross would do.

[lassie23]

I can see the atlantic waking up as we approach November and then the westerly bombardment beginning with very little in the way of high pressure for next month and winter not arriving until January.

[cheese]

2012/2013 was a good winter - not very cold, but very snowy.

Edited October 3, 2016 by cheese

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I can see the atlantic waking up as we approach November and then the westerly bombardment beginning with very little in the way of high pressure for next month and winter not arriving until January.

I can see this year being slightly below average  with more in the way of snowfall then the past few years  however i still think the south will struggle again to see any meaningful snow.

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

I can see this year being slightly below average  with more in the way of snowfall then the past few years  however i still think the south will struggle again to see any meaningful snow.

Think I need to go to Norway for Christmas if I want a change from wind and rain.

[Mapantz]

If it can't manage to snow here, this Winter, i'll take a 2013/2014 style one quite happily.

[SMU]

Its worth noting that the current AO metric is tanking towards -4 which for October is very rare-

Also from a record perspective the most negative October monthly AO is I think 2012 - where the following 5 months were also negative, with March 2013 also record breaking

 

could there be a loose connection - 

Oct 12 record @- 1.5

Mar 13 record @ -3.18

keep an eye on it.....

[Optimus Prime]

You do get the feeling Nov/Dec could hold some decent prospects for at the very least 2005 style chills...mostly rather cold after a warm start with at least a couple good wintry outbreaks (Late November and December 2005 were quite impressive given what we'd gotten since 2000/2001 at the time) I would hope March 2013's 2.7c CET won't stand for all that much longer. Having said that it would be the coldest month if it were to be compared to the period February 1997-December 2009 so we might have to wait some time before it gets beaten.

Surely the odds are the books would have to be even just a little bit balanced after December 2015. The most extreme warmest winter month probably for around 3,200 years for England and Wales (someone did the maths and came up with those odds) Given December last year November was actually not so bad...we got a few cold days and sharp frosts towards the end. Hell this morning was colder than all but one or two December 2015 nights . This winter HAS to start on the cold side given last winter...ok Scotland and N.ireland it was nowhere near as warm as down here, where it never really recovered apart from some chilly spells in February but there's no excuse the start of the winter has to be at the bear minimum average (and I'm talking against 61-90 not 71-000!)

Edited October 3, 2016 by Optimus Prime

[Frost HoIIow]

2 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

You do get the feeling Nov/Dec could hold some decent prospects for at the very least 2005 style chills...mostly rather cold after a warm start with at least a couple good wintry outbreaks (Late November and December 2005 were quite impressive given what we'd gotten since 2000/2001 at the time) I would hope March 2013's 2.7c CET won't stand for all that much longer. Having said that it would be the coldest month if it were to be compared to the period February 1997-December 2009 so we might have to wait some time before it gets beaten.

Surely the odds are the books would have to be even just a little bit balanced after December 2015. The most extreme warmest winter month probably for around 3,200 years for England and Wales (someone did the maths and came up with those odds) Given December last year November was actually not so bad...we got a few cold days and sharp frosts towards the end. Hell this morning was colder than all but one or two December 2015 nights . This winter HAS to start on the cold side given last winter...ok Scotland and N.ireland it was nowhere near as warm as down here, where it never really recovered apart from some chilly spells in February but there's no excuse the start of the winter has to be at the bear minimum average (and I'm talking against 61-90 not 71-000!)

I will take the 5 inches of snow that we got here in early March this year - but double it and move it to this December. Then a rinse and repeat until April! if only.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

21 hours ago, stewfox said:

 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

As I said in an earlier post, this coming Winter will mark the 70th anniversary of Winter 1946/47. Weather History also made the point it will also mark the first centenary of the brutal Winter of 1916/17. There does seem to be quite a number of cold Winters that started in a year ending in 6 and ending in a year ending in 7. 1996/97 started off cold, though it went pear shaped in the end. 1986/87 had the famous January cold spell and I think 1976/77 was also the first cold Winter for a few years at the time. I'm not really sure about 1966/67 but the 60s were generally cold Winter dominated so I wouldn't be surprised if it was. Neither am I sure about 1956/57. 1946/47 of course goes without saying. Anything before that such as 1936/37 and 1926/27 is a mystery to me, but I have heard that Winters in the 20th century pre 1940s were generally average to mild. So even though 1916/17 was famously cold it was something of a anomaly and yet again 1906/07 I know nothing about. Of course bringing it back to the last Winter that started in a year ending in 6 and ending in a year ending in 7 we have Winter 2006/07 which didn't follow the rules and was quite mild. It did produce a good nationwide snow event though in late January and/or early February (in fact the best here at the time since late Jan/early Feb 2004 or maybe even late Dec 2001/early Jan 2002). All this is another factor giving me just a little hope that Winter 2016/17 will be better cold and snow wise than the previous 3.

Edited October 3, 2016 by Walsall Wood Snow

[stewfox]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Its worth noting that the current AO metric is tanking towards -4 which for October is very rare-

Also from a record perspective the most negative October monthly AO is I think 2012 - where the following 5 months were also negative, with March 2013 also record breaking

 

could there be a loose connection - 

Oct 12 record @- 1.5

Mar 13 record @ -3.18

keep an eye on it.....

Interesting times.

Also the warmth above 80N has not bee seen since records up their began up there in 1958.

 

Edited October 3, 2016 by stewfox

[Guest]

I tell you this Winter better be cold to kill the bastards because the insects keep doubling!

[Frost HoIIow]

14 minutes ago, BREIFMAN11 said:

I tell you this Winter better be cold to kill the bastards because the insects keep doubling!

Throw the rubbish out more often

[Rockrat]

Hi all, it's been a couple of years since i was active on any weather forum........seem to have been a lot of changes

I know it's too early for any type of reliable forecast, but i would love to see similar to Feb 2009 ( as in my profile pic)

Brought out the Big kid in me.......Happy days

[Optimus Prime]

1 hour ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

As I said in an earlier post, this coming Winter will mark the 70th anniversary of Winter 1946/47. Weather History also made the point it will also mark the first centenary of the brutal Winter of 1916/17. There does seem to be quite a number of cold Winters that started in a year ending in 6 and ending in a year ending in 7. 1996/97 started off cold, though it went pear shaped in the end. 1986/87 had the famous January cold spell and I think 1976/77 was also the first cold Winter for a few years at the time. I'm not really sure about 1966/67 but the 60s were generally cold Winter dominated so I wouldn't be surprised if it was. Neither am I sure about 1956/57. 1946/47 of course goes without saying. Anything before that such as 1936/37 and 1926/27 is a mystery to me, but I have heard that Winters in the 20th century pre 1940s were generally average to mild. So even though 1916/17 was famously cold it was something of a anomaly and yet again 1906/07 I know nothing about. Of course bringing it back to the last Winter that started in a year ending in 6 and ending in a year ending in 7 we have Winter 2006/07 which didn't follow the rules and was quite mild. It did produce a good nationwide snow event though in late January and/or early February (in fact the best here at the time since late Jan/early Feb 2004 or maybe even late Dec 2001/early Jan 2002). All this is another factor giving me just a little hope that Winter 2016/17 will be better cold and snow wise than the previous 3.

1966/1967 was a mild winter and actually the mildest of the 60's (1c above)

1956/1957 was an even milder winter, very mid (1.5c above)

1936/1937 was also very mild (+1.4c) part of the famous mild winters of the 30's

1926/1927 was average (+0.2c above)

1916/1917 was very cold (-2.4c below)

1906/1907 was cold (-1.0c below)

I don't think there's that much to go on.

[Snowyowl9]

On ‎10‎/‎1‎/‎2016 at 20:57, Weather-history said:

I hope not, seeing the Manchester Ship Canal, yes the Ship Canal,  burst its bank where I live on Boxing Day was unnerving. 

A drier winter than the last one for me.

2005-06 for the dry part would be perfect.

Edited October 3, 2016 by Snowyowl9

[Mapantz]

3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Its worth noting that the current AO metric is tanking towards -4 which for October is very rare-

This is from 2014, so it can't be that rare?

Note: I didn't put the circle on it.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Hoping for lots of snow and blue sky ice days, cant beat it.