Hurricane Matthew

[AderynCoch]

2 hours ago, matty40s said:

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Complete destruction in Baracoa, Cuba from a combination of extreme wind and storm surge. Sad situation here. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HurricaneMatthew?src=hash">#HurricaneMatthew</a> <a href="https://t.co/JgUtW0vGjf">pic.twitter.com/JgUtW0vGjf</a></p>&mdash; Mike Theiss (@MikeTheiss) <a href="https://twitter.com/MikeTheiss/status/783674236506284037">October 5, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

Sad sights in Cuba -  Lord only knows what Haiti looms like.

https://twitter.com/MikeTheiss

Plenty of stark images showing how hard Baracoa got hit, and that's on the north-facing coast (facing away from Matthew). It must have been even worse where Matthew first came ashore.

I can see Matthew hitting Andros Island but missing the rest of the Bahamas and heading directly for Florida instead (not that the other islands would escape the impacts, especially given the increasingly large size of the storm). A direct hit on Miami is probably the worst-case scenario - unlikely at this point but very much possible.

[summer blizzard]

It's Florida, it's always been Florida deep down..

That is the worlds best ensemble suite.

[Boro Snow]

Miami maybe 

[cheese]

Miami will be spared the first time, but if Matthew curves around and heads for the Bahamas again..

Orlando will probably be the biggest city affected by hurricane-force winds - or maybe Jacksonville depending on where exactly it goes.

Edited October 5, 2016 by cheese

[bobbydog]

21 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

Miami maybe 

the answer my friend, is blowing in the wind....

[bobbydog]

actually miami is right on the edge of the hurricane warning

[summer blizzard]

Recon is now in every 3 hours so we should have near continuous updates. Latest sampling has found 160KT at 890mb so there's massive power available to it as it strengthens. A cat 5 is not off the table, that would only require 140KT.

[summer blizzard]

Strong convection wrapping around..

[Snow Queen one]

I can run but I can't hide.  Currently in hurricane warning area.  Moving to west coast which was ok but now under tropical storm watch as well.  So will just have to hope it is not too bad.

[cheese]

WRF-NMM brings the entire eye over land, and puts the landfall closer to Miami - maybe around Ft Lauderdale.

[Gael_Force]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Strong convection wrapping around..

People talk about the 'fist' appearing when rapid intensification about to begin: not a good thing to see with the path he's on.

 

[summer blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

People talk about the 'fist' appearing when rapid intensification about to begin: not a good thing to see with the path he's on.

 

Eyewall repair is not far off complete. Could see the pressure and wind respond if that's the case.

[Love Snow]

Per AXBT ocean drop from Hurricane Hunters, waters only 12 mi east of #Matthew are in the mid 80s with 80+ degree waters down to 400 feet https://t.co/l7XIHhkF28

[Zephyr]

Dropsonde suggesting pressure is down to 958mb. Deffo starting to restrengthen again. 

[Iceberg]

Recon have just found pressure if 952/953. 

So pessure falling quite radiant now thanks to the strong cdo. 

[Iceberg]

Still a few solutions for Florida. Hwrf takes it up the coast as a major and ensures the Florida east coast has hurricane winds for nearly 24 hrs. 

Gfdl takes it in land up over Orlando and then back into the Atlantic. 

The three particular risks will be the wind and rains for the east coast, winds upto 140mph. But also the lesser talked about risk of the Jacksonville savannah tidal surges. Matthew will help funnel water into this area as it moves up along with rainfall there could be considerable flooding in this area. 

Winds to the north of the eye as Matthew moves up the Floridian coast will be a problem, coming from the west it will be straight off a very flat sea and so at full force. Normally this segment of a hurricanes landfall is only a small 20-50 miles but in the case of Matthew is likely to be/affect a 200 mile area with approx 2-3 hrs for each location in the 100+kt surface winds. 

Recon should be available again in  2 hrs thanks to the almost continual flights. 

[Iceberg]

Just checked and raw Dvorak t numbers are now 6.9 after rising from 6.6 30 mins ago. 7.0 is really cat 5 territory. With a pin hole eye and strong deep cdo I very much fear some very strong intensification 

[Zephyr]

Looks like the eye filling back in? 

[Iceberg]

The core is just coming into long range Miami Doppler. 

Recon 45-60 mins. 

[Iceberg]

Current eye looks closed. 

[Lauren]

In case no one has posted it this is a great Web came to watch on. They also do one for Port Miami and Lauder Dale. 

http://www.portnassauwebcam.com/

[Jack Wales]

Recon just recorded central pressures of 941mb. Surface level winds yet to respond to the pressure drop with max 115mph recorded so far this mission 

[Bristawl Si]

Any updates on how badly it affected the Bahamas?

[Jack Wales]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Any updates on how badly it affected the Bahamas?

Making landfall on Grand Bahama shortly.  Here is the weather station at Andros Town where pressures are now steadily dropping and winds at 80mph

https://weather.com/en-GB/weather/today/l/24.70,-77.79

[Singularity]

The eye has cleared out again and Matthew is starting to look a bit typhoon-like again, which is not good news for Florida. From the way the deep convection is whipping around I can see the max sustained winds being well into Category 4 range now. 

Recon just found a 941 mb core pressure and 130 knot flight level winds. That might be a pressure drop of around 10 mb in three hours based on the preceding NHC update (954 mb at 6 am BST).

New Providence and Nassau are in a lot of trouble now. Thoughts are with those in Matthew's path.