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Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2016-2017: The Refreeze.

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I really do not know what to make of it all Knock's???

After Feb's QBO flip surely we have to be open to unlooked for events occurring as warming impacts the workings of the Stratosphere? 

I wonder what the next week will bring?

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1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I really do not know what to make of it all Knock's???

After Feb's QBO flip surely we have to be open to unlooked for events occurring as warming impacts the workings of the Stratosphere? 

I wonder what the next week will bring?

I don't think you are alone GW. Unknown territory I feel.

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850hPa temperatures have fallen much closer to the long-term normal over much of the Arctic Ocean in the past few days, but the surface air temperatures at many sites remain very high, presumably due to the lack of sea ice.

I am continuing to closely follow Vize in the Russian Arctic for example: the 850hPa temperatures dropped from about -5C to -20C in the area over the past week, but the surface temperatures have only dropped from around -2C to -8C on average:

https://www.wunderground.com/ru/ostrov-vize

These compare with November normals of -20.8 and -18.5 for 1961-1990 and 1981-2010 respectively.

An upshot of this, though, is that the sea ice extent is starting to rise sharply.  I think we'll need an extended period of relatively quiet conditions over the Arctic Ocean to allow sea ice to recover to something within -2 standard deviations- if we can manage that then we may see surface temperatures coming out something respectably close to normal.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Am I over egging my concerns or will this Vortex split ( Canada/Western Russia) be a very bad thing for Sea ice over our side of the Basin?

We have hit another slowdown in ice gain with JAXA only putting on 18,000km2 on the 5th so are we arriving at a 'balance point where the anomalously warm peripheral Oceans/seas are now forming a limit to ice extent? Both Barentsz and Bering are constantly replacing their warm waters as does Baffin. With Hudson Bay seeing such anomalous low ice is this now the only place we can expect 'growth' from?

The Vortex split may serve to mess with our side of the basin even more? If the Eastern Seaboard keeps getting hit with Arctic outbreaks ( as forecast for next week?) then that cold will slip into an anomalously warm ocean just of the coasts there. This would set up a train of storms the same as we saw a few years back but , due to low solar, the UK could find itself behind a 'High Pressure Shield' forcing the storms north over Iceland and Svalbard and into Barentsz/Kara.

If this happens expect the ice there to suffer both from fragmentation from wind/swells/waves and so extent will suffer. Such a run of storms would also bring northerlies over Fram effectively losing all of that old, thick ice that was parked there in September?

We will see what we will see but I do have concerns for the next 6 weeks!

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54 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Am I over egging my concerns or will this Vortex split ( Canada/Western Russia) be a very bad thing for Sea ice over our side of the Basin?

We have hit another slowdown in ice gain with JAXA only putting on 18,000km2 on the 5th so are we arriving at a 'balance point where the anomalously warm peripheral Oceans/seas are now forming a limit to ice extent? Both Barentsz and Bering are constantly replacing their warm waters as does Baffin. With Hudson Bay seeing such anomalous low ice is this now the only place we can expect 'growth' from?

The Vortex split may serve to mess with our side of the basin even more? If the Eastern Seaboard keeps getting hit with Arctic outbreaks ( as forecast for next week?) then that cold will slip into an anomalously warm ocean just of the coasts there. This would set up a train of storms the same as we saw a few years back but , due to low solar, the UK could find itself behind a 'High Pressure Shield' forcing the storms north over Iceland and Svalbard and into Barentsz/Kara.

If this happens expect the ice there to suffer both from fragmentation from wind/swells/waves and so extent will suffer. Such a run of storms would also bring northerlies over Fram effectively losing all of that old, thick ice that was parked there in September?

We will see what we will see but I do have concerns for the next 6 weeks!

As November showed, there isn't so much that can impact the direction that sea ice is traveling in and we have now entered winter, as opposed to autumn.

Just to add though, no split is within the reliable modeled time and even the experts are confused about the month end.

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We are looking to see a cold dry desert swap into a cold version of the southern Ocean around Antarctica. We should have felt 'tipped off' that this was happening when the majority of new ice forming was changed to pancake ice ( as we see around Antarctica come re-freeze?) and the constant spikes from day zero through to day 100 on the DMI 80N graphs?

I never thought it'd go this way but then the odds of high energy events across the basin appear to be a winter thing with summer, clear Blue highs being far less energetic? So we end up with a pack so battered and poorly formed over winter forcing low ice levels , and lots of open water, over summer no matter the weather! Rinse and repeat.

 

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I guess this is a new normal for Atlantic side of the Arctic.

Arctic_AMSR2_visual.png

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1 hour ago, daz_4 said:

I guess this is a new normal for Atlantic side of the Arctic.

Arctic_AMSR2_visual.png

The ice edge at around 83N with Svalbard and Franz Josef Land both ice free a week before new year is insane. No wonder we can't get any worthwhile cold here when its around freezing just a few hundred miles from the pole. Utterly ridiculous.

Edited by reef

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2 hours ago, daz_4 said:

I guess this is a new normal for Atlantic side of the Arctic.

Arctic_AMSR2_visual.png

Weather patterns in the last few days has been perfect for a rapid retreat of the sea ice edge across Barents with very strong low pressure systems being recorded around Svalbard. The forecasts upcoming does suggest the ice should grow back somewhat but the trend or new normal of the sea ice struggling to touch Svalbard is continuing.

I have to say there is only one reason why there is alot of talk about the such high temps across the pole and that is because its Christmas so it makes a good headline because the temps across the pole has been well above average for most of the Autumn season.

The sea ice retreat on the Atlantic side of the Arctic is quite severe though and I think only 2006 saw anything this bad for the time of year. 2012 I think also had ice extent retreating quite far and the Kara sea barely froze over during the winter season. Despite December being quite cold across Kara, the ice is struggling to grow here fully

I also don't buy fully into the argument the current temps across the pole is all down to man made warming, natural factors are playing a part here such as deep low pressure systems across Svalbard which is causing a very tight southerly gradient which is pulling up warmth from the Southern latitudes. It is perhaps the strength of the winds which is causing the most damage rather than the temperatures.

 

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A drop of 174k on the daily NSIDC extent, which means it's down 238k in the last 3 days.

The 5 day average is also beginning to fall now, which isn't that unusual itself as it's happened on 11 other years. However, without increases of over 100k for the next 2 days, the 5 day extent will keep dropping.

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30 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Weather patterns in the last few days has been perfect for a rapid retreat of the sea ice edge across Barents with very strong low pressure systems being recorded around Svalbard. The forecasts upcoming does suggest the ice should grow back somewhat but the trend or new normal of the sea ice struggling to touch Svalbard is continuing.

I have to say there is only one reason why there is alot of talk about the such high temps across the pole and that is because its Christmas so it makes a good headline because the temps across the pole has been well above average for most of the Autumn season.

The sea ice retreat on the Atlantic side of the Arctic is quite severe though and I think only 2006 saw anything this bad for the time of year. 2012 I think also had ice extent retreating quite far and the Kara sea barely froze over during the winter season. Despite December being quite cold across Kara, the ice is struggling to grow here fully

I also don't buy fully into the argument the current temps across the pole is all down to man made warming, natural factors are playing a part here such as deep low pressure systems across Svalbard which is causing a very tight southerly gradient which is pulling up warmth from the Southern latitudes. It is perhaps the strength of the winds which is causing the most damage rather than the temperatures.

 

I felt it right to quote @Bring Back1962-63

"This will show that the record low ice extent has made a rapid recovery during December to only just below the record low of 2012 (it was well below) and it looks like it will overtake that during the next week or so. Earlier in December Svalbard recorded it lowest temperatures for nearly 3 years and fell to below the 30 year mean which is very rare these days (the mean max is around -12c to 14c for late December). Maximum temperatures recovered to around 0c last weekend but have fallen back since then and are forecast to fall to minus double digits during the next few days and beyond. In fact, "if" we do get a brief Arctic airstream in early January, the surface temperatures and 850s up there at that time will be a fair bit lower than we saw during the few brief northerlies that we had last Winter.

A bit of media sensationalism indeed with talk of a heatwave a little part of the arctic going near or above freezing point is surely not disastrous. 

Edited by Changing Skies
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17 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

A bit of media sensationalism indeed with talk of a heatwave a little part of the arctic going near or above freezing point is surely not disastrous. 

Maybe it does not feel disastrous now but we will need a lot of help to avoid record low next year. With the sea ice in such a poor state, even average summer will be enough.

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Unfortunately the beeb weather forecasters were pushing this this morning when asked and linking it to climate change.

Regardless of that the ice isn't doing well and that is a fact. Fingers crossed this summer will be a cool one up there helping the remaining ice along.

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34 minutes ago, knocker said:

He is a climate change skeptic/denier and misinformer with close associations with the GWPF

https://www.skepticalscience.com/Matt_Ridley_blog.htm

https://www.desmog.uk/node/9715

 

It's hardly surprising the activist attack sites don't like someone who doesn't stay on message, but what's wrong with the article.
There are some good points about the constantly postponed doomsday nonsense.
It's really not a good idea to make predictions unless  crafted it in a very flexible way or you will look stupid.
They should know y now they have been doing it for decades
 

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