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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards

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4 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Very humid along the southcoast Christchurch/Bournemouth  area and Dark clouds keep trying to form!  

20160915_130439.jpg

Especially a little inland i.e Ringwood way.

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I am unsure about today. There are so many different possibilities on the table at the moment. It seems like some storms could develop somewhere across Southern England this afternoon, but GFS is showing storms breaking out further north across the Midlands too. These storms are likely to be quite intense if they do happen, but it is a big if.

Overnight the storms become more widespread but will not have the same intensity of anything that develops today (in terms of lightning).

 

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3 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

What direction will these storms be moving, meto graphics seem to show forming East heading west

It looks like the initial storms that MAY develop will be moving from SE to NW and then they merge with a W to E moving band of rain (the cold front). Eventually we have a W to E moving band of thundery rain overnight and into tomorrow.

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I'm also unsure about today.. Euro4 less keen to break things out for the western risk area i.e Dorset until later into the evening/night now (this for Midnight):
 16091600_1506.gif 

though it does also seem to be showing lower temperatures than are already occurring. 
I wouldn't mind some after dark lightning photo opportunities if I do venture into Dorset later though.

Then it seems keen on stuff for the SE

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/09/15/basis06/ukuk/prec/16091606_1506.gif
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/09/15/basis06/ukuk/prec/16091609_1506.gif

(no idea why those links won't embed as a picture like the top one)

 

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very uncertain on what will happen today. All dependent on how hot it gets and where and when the cold front moves in tonight.

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8 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

I'm also unsure about today.. Euro4 less keen to break things out for the western risk area i.e Dorset until later into the evening/night now (this for Midnight):
 16091600_1506.gif 

 

Just a small but probably quite important point if you want timings for precipitation. The chart above is not for midnight tonight but rather the expected precipitation accumulation between 9pm and midnight tonight :)

Alex Deakin really ramping up the storms for later today into tonight!

Edited by Supacell
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5 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Just a small but probably quite important point if you want timings for precipitation. The chart above is not for midnight tonight but rather the expected precipitation accumulation between 9pm and midnight tonight :)

Alex Deakin really ramping up the storms for later today into tonight!

Does he still go for the same areas highlighted?  havnt got access  to aTV

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BBC 1pm news weather was showing lightning symbols over the West Mids from Midnight onwards through until at least 5-6 am

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hmm, going by the euro4 and chatter on other forums, the focus for storms seems to be adjusting towards SE counties as opposed to the west country as predicted on the overnight runs....I'm now rather less optimistic from an IMBY perspective, too far west I fear

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14 minutes ago, Darren Bown said:

very uncertain on what will happen today. All dependent on how hot it gets and where and when the cold front moves in tonight.

Yes and  I still can't figure out whether there is a risk for us or not.  I have a good feeling though, and I think something will happen near the cold front  overnight if nothing else. I do like days like today because you just never know. 

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6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Does he still go for the same areas highlighted?  havnt got access  to aTV

Some storms could break out this afternoon from about Bristol to Milton Keynes and then they become more widespread overnight with everywhere from Dorset to Cardiff up to Derby (haha as if) and east.

EDIT: That is not my forecast, that is what the BBC forecast said :D

Edited by Supacell

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1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

Yes and  I still can't figure out whether there is a risk for us or not.  I have a good feeling though, and I think something will happen near the cold front  overnight if nothing else. I do like days like today because you just never know. 

Nothing I've looked at suggests storms for our area unfortunately. 

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Just now, Supacell said:

Some storms could break out this afternoon from about Bristol to Milton Keynes and then they become more widespread overnight with everywhere from Dorset to Cardiff up to Derby (haha as if) and east.

Ha  Still in the game then  i suspect at the moment its a little like pin the tail on the Donkey   Thanks also Mr Nexus.

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Out I've ventured to the A14. Currently having a coffee. Think I'm going to stay put for the meantime and keep my eye on the radar and sky. Things certainly looking better now all that fog has cleared! 

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2 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Some storms could break out this afternoon from about Bristol to Milton Keynes and then they become more widespread overnight with everywhere from Dorset to Cardiff up to Derby (haha as if) and east.

EDIT: That is not my forecast, that is what the BBC forecast said :D

Sounds about right! Some parts of central and east Midlands could do well.

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1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

hmm, going by the euro4 and chatter on other forums, the focus for storms seems to be adjusting towards SE counties as opposed to the west country as predicted on the overnight runs....I'm now rather less optimistic from an IMBY perspective, too far west I fear

Agreed - latest high res models (UKV and EURO4) continue the trend to nudge things further SE, broadly in a zone where we see the wind convergence right now, i.e. Swanage NE-wards to Medway. This would still place some parts of Dorset at risk, but would put more of the Home Counties and London within the 'zone of potential'. Of bigger concern might be the impacts from thunderstorms that develop later in the night over London and SE England which could have some notable impacts on the morning commute, for example. Treated with a low probability in any one specific place for now, but certainly something to keep an eye on...

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One small shower just popped up in the south east - Can see it just to my north, very isolated, the only bit of cloud I have in the sky. 
Hope to get out overnight should anything develop :)

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If everything is going to transfer to the East as usual, then I pray its close enough to watch some lightning from my location after dark at least.

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1 minute ago, staplehurst said:

Agreed - latest high res models (UKV and EURO4) continue the trend to nudge things further SE, broadly in a zone where we see the wind convergence right now, i.e. Swanage NE-wards to Medway. This would still place some parts of Dorset at risk, but would put more of the Home Counties and London within the 'zone of potential'. Of bigger concern might be the impacts from thunderstorms that develop later in the night over London and SE England which could have some notable impacts on the morning commute, for example. Treated with a low probability in any one specific place for now, but certainly something to keep an eye on...

So my initial target of around Oxford may not be a good idea then? I think I may stay put for now and see what it is looking like in a couple of hours.

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An overnight storm even if its in the distance will be very welcome here , apart from a couple of distant strikes over Kidderminster I managed to see earlier this year we've had nothing overnight .

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