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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards

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It's back now - normal service resumed. lol

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7 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

No warnings showing for me, so it must be being changed as we type. lol

Edit: Read your last line as I was typing.

Haha yep, moved to tomorrow now (and placing me about 5 miles outside the warning lol)

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And it's back! And now for tomorrow. Obviously  The chief forecaster doesn't know what day it is. 

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Just to confirm yesterday:

CsONk3IWIAA8rtH.jpg

I didn't want folks thinking I was losing it. :diablo:

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Now there is a warning out for the cold front on Friday.

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It might be worth me heading up to the western-facing slopes of the Pennines later on this evening if things kick-off towards North Wales as predicted, i'll be watching the radar like a hawk into the evening hours.

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ESTOFEX Level 1 for the UK today 

A level 1 was issued for parts of UK mainly for excessive rain and isolated large hail.

... CNTRL UK ...

Latest surface data indicates dewpoints in excess of 15 °C, also visible on satellite data with broad areas of stratus cloudiness. 00 UTC soundings indicate pronounced capping beneath 800 hPa and moderately steepened mid-level lapse rates atop, as fading EML spreads north. With good diabatic heating, up to .5-1 kJ/kg capped MLCAPE seems possible. Regarding CI, models diverge with some showing robust initiation and upscale growth into a northward moving cluster, whereas others remain more reluctant - mainly due to varying thermodynamic conditions in the models. With upper flow becoming increasingly divergent and analyzed numerous more or less pronounced convergence lines, isolated to scattered CI seems plausible. Very weak DLS precludes organized DMS, but magnitude of CAPE should support numerous strong updrafts. Large hail and excessive rain will be the main hazard - the latter risk especially, if storms grow upscale into a cluster. This activity weakens during the night with loss of daytime heating, but isolated storms could continue well into the night with enough MUCAPE forecast until 06 UTC.
 

2016091506_201609141036_2_stormforecast.xml.png

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Cap is certainly in play. Pretty hot outside and not cloud in the sky!

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34 minutes ago, Ian Ballinger said:

In English that means?

storms all around but non for Telford:)  as it says really possibility for a storm or two tonight however i expect it  to be isolated in nature.  Thursday and Friday i think is were the action will be 

Edited by weirpig

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Anyone else in the NW/Pennines hearing what sounds like thunder? but obviously can't be as there's no storms are anywhere around here. Just heard what sounded like a Eurofighter go straight overhead aswell.

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2 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Anyone else in the NW/Pennines hearing what sounds like thunder? but obviously can't be as there's no storms are anywhere around here. Just heard what sounded like a Eurofighter go straight overhead aswell.

 I thought I heard  what sounded like a large boom  before, but I wasn't concentrating and had the windows closed so cannot be sure.  I certainly thought I heard  something strange, as I feel really on edge  afterwards for some reason. 

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8 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Anyone else in the NW/Pennines hearing what sounds like thunder? but obviously can't be as there's no storms are anywhere around here. Just heard what sounded like a Eurofighter go straight overhead aswell.

Strange a few of those around today, had two lot's or may be the same two twice fly by here this morning.

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3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Strange a few of those around today, had two lot's or may be the same two twice fly by here this morning.

Just had a heavy shower here. It's very dark over the westerns fells.Shower has now moved north and the sun is out again.

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Yellow warning of rain  and possible thunderstorms for tomorrow afternoon and evening been issued here

The seemingly invincible cap may be about to break!

Edited by Jcweather

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Going by xc weather, looks to me like winds are converging somewhat in the Cambridgeshire and Ouse valley region. This could well be a potential breeding ground in the next 2 hours if anything is going to pop off. 

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2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

For Northern parts of the country, yes.

Models have been struggling the last couple of day until it has been right on top of it. Thunderstorm development yesterday was underestimated going off Monday's info. 

No one in the Greater Manchester area expected to see one of the best storms of recent times going off Monday's forecasts.

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2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Models have been struggling the last couple of day until it has been right on top of it. Thunderstorm development yesterday was underestimated going off Monday's info. 

No one in the Greater Manchester area expected to see one of the best storms of recent times going off Monday's forecasts.

Depends where you source your information from though - a Slight chance of Severe thunderstorms that talks about the potential for hail 3-4cm and "any storms that do develop on Tuesday ... will produce quite frequent lightning" suggests that somewhere might get a decent storm?

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If anyone is going out chasing tomorrow and fancy having a crew from the One Show tag along and do some filming, please drop me a pm...

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32 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Models have been struggling the last couple of day until it has been right on top of it. Thunderstorm development yesterday was underestimated going off Monday's info. 

No one in the Greater Manchester area expected to see one of the best storms of recent times going off Monday's forecasts.

And people in Leeds didn't expect a storm at all - we were never in the primary warning area. I like being pleasantly surprised though!

Edited by cheese

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What a day yesterday and looks very hazy and milky skies now, usually means thunderstorms later, maybe later or tomorrow, also I thought I heard a distant boom earlier with a echoy rumbling  afterwards, coming from the north/northwest :/, very strange.

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A lot of reports of booms coming from the NW today. Is there an airshow anywhere up there soon? If so, it could be a fighter preparing

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45 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Models have been struggling the last couple of day until it has been right on top of it. Thunderstorm development yesterday was underestimated going off Monday's info. 

No one in the Greater Manchester area expected to see one of the best storms of recent times going off Monday's forecasts.

At least the MetO had put a warning for your out, your way,  a good 5 hours before anything turned up! convectiveweather.co.uk  had your area (and Leeds) in a 'severe' zone on Monday. Estofex were also on the money. The models showed clear potential days before, hence the chit-chat on here prior to it. I could understand if it was small margins, I would have been first to defend MetO warnings, but there was no excuse yesterday, particularly for Cornwall.
 

Edited by Mapantz

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