Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[northwestsnow]

Yes i noted the high pressure cell at 168- i wonder if that was the catalyst for what followed.

Either way its a completely different run to the 0z so a very complicated set up unfolding.(And fascinating too )

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

Note the 1025mb high over scandanavia..

Edited October 31, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Summer Sun]

And sure enough colder air returning at D10

High pressure over Scandinavia once more

Edited October 31, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Ali1977]

Very interesting ECM, hard to believe that will happen going off some of the other models, but the chance is there when all the WAA is heading to Scandy over the next few days. 

[Frosty.]

Well isn't it nice to see the atlantic hitting a brick wall! These Ecm 12z charts would be most welcome indeed!

[northwestsnow]

The cold pooling way to the NE on the 240 ecm is pretty impressive!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

[karlos1983]

Oh my days, wasn't expecting that

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

The cold pooling way to the NE on the 240 ecm is pretty impressive!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

Mind you the mighty impressive stuff was a lot nearer at 168 hours.

[Eskimo]

Well, well, well...

[Jeremy Shockey]

a bit of a shock to the system with these projected temperatures coming very soon !

[Nouska]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Very interesting ECM, hard to believe that will happen going off some of the other models, but the chance is there when all the WAA is heading to Scandy over the next few days. 

 

Remember @bluearmy was talking about later stages of the ECM and FIM being similar. I posted the blocking forecast charts a few pages back.

 

[Summer Sun]

Inverness has got to 10 on the snow row next Monday

London hits 1 on the 14th

For those not familiar with the above the closer you are to 20 the higher the chance of snow

Edited October 31, 2016 by Summer Sun

[karlos1983]

I fear meltdown if those Fl charts disappear in the morning   

not sure I like the dartboard low west of Iceland @240 hrs on "That"  I mean The ECM , doesn't look very slider'esk, but I'm being damn right picky there to be honest. I think it's become normal practise now to figure out what could go wrong rather than what could go right. 

Edited October 31, 2016 by karlos1983

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean has increased the longevity of the weekend cold spell to almost next midweek and even thereafter the winds are generally north of west ( rPm / Pm ) with very little or no indication of tropical maritime influence. So the next few weeks are currently looking generally unsettled with below average temps for the most part and occasionally cold with more arctic influence bringing widespread frosts and even some wintry ppn, with a risk of wet snow, especially on northern hills..later this weekend and particularly early next week look very chilly for example. There is also indications of some settled intervals where frost and freezing fog would occur..This November looks like its going to be kinder to coldies than recent years!

Edited October 31, 2016 by Frosty.

[Scandinavian High.]

8 hours ago, abbie123 said:

Is there a hint that high pressure is  trying to pull up to Scandinavia there ???

Is there a hint that high pressure is  trying to pull up to Scandinavia there ??? And there is 

[phil nw.]

I don't think based on the ens, that this pattern of a weak Atlantic will suddenly disappear overnight.

Of course we know the PV is still cooling and expanding but looking at day 10 on the gefs and really little is changing.

 

 

Note the much tighter boundary layers across the Pacific side indicating a much stronger jet whereas downstream a much quieter Atlantic profile with continued evidence of ridging.Those +ve height anomalies still over the Canadian side.A colder than normal looking setup with the mean jet forced south east.

C.England ens graph continues to show the colder pattern setting in from mid week still with little rain expected over the coming period.

Yes surface details will likely change run to run beyond 4/5 days but overall there's little sign of our usual rampant November jet.

[Barry12]

Finally the good charts have made it into the reliable, a look at the ECM, GFS, UKMO at day 6-

All agree on a ridge building to our NW, and cold air sweeping into the UK from the East.

 

ECM and GFS agree on atleast -4 uppers for most of the UK

 

Pretty impressive for the start of November!

[knocker]

Interesting ecm run this evening. The divergence from the 00z and the start of some high jinks starts at T144, Here the mid Atlantic ridge extends further north and blocks the Canadian vortex eastward energy transfer. Not to be out done it redirects it SE and combines with the energy that has been tracking along the eastern seaboard to form a new trough in the western Atlantic. Thus we have this analysis with the combination of the ridge and European trough producing cold northerlies over the UK

From here until T216 the mid Atlantic HP is shunted NE into Scandinavia introducing some warm air into that area whilst the trough in the west reestablishes the strong link to the Canadian vortex and tracks east  Thus a strong upper trough is established in mid Atlantic, slight ridging over the UK with a cold pool central Europe.

In short we are looking at an unsettled, wet at times, cool bordering on cold weekend and the beginning of the next week before a brief quieter period as the HP pops in before the Atlantic says hello with a vengeance with the arrival of fronts from the west and strong winds.

Edited October 31, 2016 by knocker

[ANYWEATHER]

Happy Halloween Everyone. Both Ecm and Gfs show a continuation of last nights output with a potent shot of cold for the Uk during late week into the weekend . If these charts verify for late week it wont only feel like winter with a bitter wind chill but sleet and snow will be seen by some, perhaps the earliest November cold spell for many years!

[Mark wheeler]

Will it snow in my back garden? . Only joking . I can't help have the feeling of why now? can't we just wait another 3 weeks . Hoping the chances of this reoccurring a few times . Looking at the output over the last few days and in fact weeks it for once looks in the realms of possibility.

Edited October 31, 2016 by Mark wheeler

[Singularity]

Happy to see ECM finally joining GEM in questioning the notion that the tropospheric polar vortex will perform a straight-forward transition to Scandinavia in a bid to stay aligned with the stratospheric vortex.

With the trough disruption by a continued Scandinavian ridge, we have a means for the N. Atlantic pattern to become less like a La Nina setup - therefore bringing it more in-line with the ongoing Pacific setup - without placing us under a predominantly Atlantic regime that brings alternating milder and colder conditions and a fair bit of rain.

ECM does however show that there's a lot of work to be done if we're to not only shut out the westerlies but make good use of the impressive (for early Nov) cold pool over Scandinavia (i.e more than just a transient peripheral 'tasting' of the cold airmass); low pressure seems keen to develop in the Med. in 5-6 days time and move up through Eastern Europe, wiping out most of that particular cold pool by day 8 or 9. To be able to survive that attack, the cold pool would need to receive reinforcements from Siberia, which seems a bit of a long shot, but with such a bedraggled polar vortex, I'm not prepared to rule such things out. I can't rule out the westerlies either of course, but I prefer to think about the cold options more 

[Paul_1978]

I'm a regular in here and only in the last day or so have I heard people talking about "The FIM". What's that? 

Never heard it before!

[Ravelin]

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

I fear meltdown if those Fl charts disappear in the morning   

One thing for sure, when one model is showing this at d10....

And another is showing this....

The FI is going to change!

I'm not even sure there is a half-way house between those two.

[virtualsphere]

7 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

I'm a regular in here and only in the last day or so have I heard people talking about "The FIM". What's that? 

Never heard it before!

http://fim.noaa.gov/

Not sure how reliable it is, I haven't heard much about it so it would be interesting to get some views from the experts.

[Smiler1709]

7 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

One thing for sure, when one model is showing this at d10....

And another is showing this....

The FI is going to change!

I'm not even sure there is a half-way house between those two.

Lovely 240 on the ecm, my money is that low taking a south eastern track as it bumps into the block over Scandinavia creating a biter feel to the uk, maybe to early for snow but a great shock to the system.

[winterof79]

6 minutes ago, virtualsphere said:

http://fim.noaa.gov/

Not sure how reliable it is, I haven't heard much about it so it would be interesting to get some views from the experts.

I have been impressed whenever I have compared it.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/fime_cartes.php?&ech=150&mode=0&carte=0