Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[jules216]

15 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Link to the site please nice charts

I am not sure, copied it from a weather discussion forum in Slovakia, they seem to be very knowledgeable people and seem to have access to few interesting charts, here is precipitation anomaly for weeks 45 and 46 

[bluearmy]

Btw ,  its days 45 and 46

 

[karlos1983]

17 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Correct but it shows the cold air marching WEST

Well that is a little misleading, the reason the cold uppers get there is because of the LP heading SE into  Eastern Europe/Western Russia and dragging the Cold air around it. It's not because of high pressure to our NE and cold uppers heading west, they wont head further west from what the 06z GFS pumped out. We are influenced by the High pressure, cooler, but not cold.

Edited October 28, 2016 by karlos1983

[weirpig]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Btw ,  its days 45 and 46

 

Is It?   I thought it says 432  hours  which is  i think 18 days to 25 days   away   or am i simply having a moment .

Edited October 28, 2016 by weirpig

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Well that is a little misleading, the reason the cold uppers get there is because of the LP heading SE into  Eastern Europe/Western Russia and dragging the Cold air around it. It's not because of high pressure to our NE and cold uppers heading west, they wont head further west from what the 06z GFS pumped out. We are influenced by the High pressure, cooler, but not cold.

In many respects, what you say is correct, karlos...But, then, if it were not for the HP being where it is, said LP wouldn't be heading SE. Would it?

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Is It?   I thought it says 432  hours  which is  i think 18 days to 25 days   away   or am i simply having a moment .

correct, that's what my calculator said, and I checked it 3 times 

[drm]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Is It?   I thought it says 432  hours  which is  i think 18 days to 25 days   away   or am i simply having a moment .

no jules was right those are weeks 45 and 46 of 2016

[weirpig]

Just now, drm said:

no jules was right those are weeks 45 and 46 of 2016

Yep thought so   Im with Karlos  calculator tapping.

[feb1991blizzard]

Either way I wouldn't pay too much attention to PPN type charts at 432 or 600 hours away.

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

In many respects, what you say is correct, karlos...But, then, if it were not for the HP being where it is, said LP wouldn't be heading SE. Would it?

Thanks for clearing that up Ed... lol. But I was just stating that the Ensemble posted earlier wasn't really a true reflection of what we might expect in a few days time, because that cold pool wont be heading our way......not this time anyway. Good to look at when we are chasing the Beast from the east.

[bluearmy]

Ok - didn't check the small print!!

they are ens means of 51 runs so should be a decent stab at what can be expected, even at three weeks out 

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

38 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Link to the site please nice charts

I think this is the place

https://www.met.hu/idojaras/elorejelzes/europai_elorejelzes/

Took some digging!

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Ok - didn't check the small print!!

they are ens means of 51 runs so should be a decent stab at what can be expected, even at three weeks out 

They definitely the ens and not the control run?   can anyone be brave enough to put up the H500 chart and risk incurring ECMWF's roth?!!

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Ok - didn't check the small print!!

they are ens means of 51 runs so should be a decent stab at what can be expected, even at three weeks out 

I didnt realise it was the mean of the ens.  Very impressive charts for mid November.

[Frosty.]

There are plenty of wintry GEFS 6z perturbations to sink our teeth into this afternoon.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

53 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Link to the site please nice charts

Here is link to correct page.

http://www.met.hu/en/idojaras/elorejelzes/europai_elorejelzes/

And its anomaly for 1 week at a time not per day. 

Edited October 28, 2016 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[jules216]

11 minutes ago, Essex Easterly said:

I think this is the place

https://www.met.hu/idojaras/elorejelzes/europai_elorejelzes/

Took some digging!

Well done,I would have found it eventually, just too busy at the moment,I have some other interesting links from Slovak weather forums,when something interesting comes up I will share it with u guys

[Frosty.]

These GEFS 6z mean charts indicate to me an increasing chance of cold and showery NWly / Nly winds as time goes on with the high slowly retreating westwards towards mid atlantic..so more of a wintry flavour to our weather is currently favoured by the models again today.

Edited October 28, 2016 by Frosty.

[Ali1977]

Those with access to the EC46, does it show anything unusually cold later in Nov or is it just chillier and drier than the norm ? Lets hope the 12z follows the 06z and we finally start getting some kind of idea what happens early next month. 

[jules216]

I have found a link to ECMWF seasonal T2m and precipitation anomaly which was issued on October 1st which covers Oct,Nov,Dec,Jan, anyone interested in those? or was it already linked here before,sorry not sure

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ens mean also shows the high heading out towards mid atlantic with increasing scandi trough influence so I think as we go through next month we are looking at predominantly cold & showery NWly / Nly winds with the showers turning more wintry with snow on high ground and increasingly widespread night frosts as the GEFS 6z mean shows longer term out to mid November..even at this range, November looks like a below average month temperature wise which for coldies is much better than the usual mild wet and windy mush isn't it?

Edited October 28, 2016 by Frosty.

[jules216]

Here we go, it looks a bit meh, although January looks interesting

http://forest.jrc.ec.europa.eu/effis/applications/long-term-forecast/seasonal-forecast/

[Nouska]

26 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Here we go, it looks a bit meh, although January looks interesting

http://forest.jrc.ec.europa.eu/effis/applications/long-term-forecast/seasonal-forecast/

Looking at October to date, that did not work out so well.

I'm going to have a closer scrutiny of this new model when it updates next month. This model accounts for Arctic ice variability besides many other climatological factors.

 

Edited October 28, 2016 by Nouska

[Mucka]

We are still seeing quite big run ti run swings in the ensemble mean temperature in FI - GFS 06z set a couple of C cooler than the 00z for 2nd week of Nov, which is a lot for a mean.

That is reflected by better blocking overall throughout the set than recent runs.

There is still potential for a lot of changes upstream and it has already been mentioned by other posters that another tropical cyclone could be thrown into the mix, though currently appears to be just GFS going with this.

I imagine that, if we were in Winter, there would be some frustration that any cooler/cold signal remains in FI.

Thankfully we are still in Autumn and hopefully we are all enjoying the clement weather and promising developments in the NH.

So long as we maintain blocking and the European snow cover marches West unhindered then we should be happy to maintain the holding pattern for now - just so long as we don't run out of fuel. 

[fergieweather]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Those with access to the EC46, does it show anything unusually cold later in Nov or is it just chillier and drier than the norm ? Lets hope the 12z follows the 06z and we finally start getting some kind of idea what happens early next month. 

You'll have seen the 2m temp and PPN anomalies from EC Monthly posted above (via Hungarian Met Service). The temperature anomalies weaken substantially after week 2 and are thus of limited significance thereafter, whilst conversely, 500hPa GPH anomalies continue leaning towards +ve heights to the NW of the UK throughout November. However, bear in mind that nearer-term, forecast confidence is low on outcomes beyond circa 4th November, with a widening synoptic spread having emerged in the 00z EC ENS beyond 1st week or so of the month (albeit underpinning a continued theme of temperatures a bit below normal). Glosea favours those -ve temp anomalies to generally remain this month, with -ve AO/NAO considered by UKMO the more likely outcome onwards into early winter. But as repeatedly stressed, respective high-low centre(s) positioning remains very low confidence (& ditto re possible strat-related matters late Nov and/or early Dec) and consequently so do the weather outcomes for the UK. So in short, no confidence can really be expressed for now beyond week 1 of November.

Edited October 28, 2016 by fergieweather