Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

Yes Frosty, if the GFS is to be believed then the supply of cold air from the east is going to be petering out- it's just too early to get anything of note from that direction. On this latest run we pick more of a southeasterly, which would raise the temperatures, particularly further south. Still plenty of time for a proper cooldown when it's actually supposed to happen- November onwards!

Yes Scorcher, a subtle change in the wind direction makes a big difference from a chilly easterly off the north sea to a southeasterly from the warm near continent..I won't complain if we have another pleasantly warm spell before autumn really digs in!

[Frosty.]

There is some support for the mid october warm up shown on the operational Gfs 12z from the Gefs 12z perturbations, even a few very warm long draw southerlies.

[Scorcher]

If it happened it would continue the trend of warmth occurring well into October and even November last year- the last 2 years have had very warm finishes to October, particularly further south. 

[Mucka]

44 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Yes Frosty, if the GFS is to be believed then the supply of cold air from the east is going to be petering out- it's just too early to get anything of note from that direction. On this latest run we pick more of a southeasterly, which would raise the temperatures, particularly further south. Still plenty of time for a proper cooldown when it's actually supposed to happen- November onwards!

It would take something special to give the UK a cold blast in mid October. I think people are probably more interested in the general synoptic and how far West and how well maintained the snowline will be for continental Europe.

If there is to be a traditional return to something more zonal I would take a stab that it won't manifest itself until we get into the last 10 days of October.

If and when we do get a return to Westerly flow it will be very interesting to see how long lived it is and whether the PV and atmosphere allow for relatively quick return to some form of blocking pattern.

I guess there are more tangible and important events across the Atlantic right now though. Another few weeks and speculation proper for early winter can begin I guess.

 

Edited October 6, 2016 by Mucka

[Frosty.]

Although mid october could be rather warm further south, towards late month there are some arctic maritime shots to take into consideration on this evening's GEFS 12z perturbations..some juicy looking charts for coldies

It's even got spocks attention

Edited October 6, 2016 by Frosty.

[Matthew.]

Just look at all that blocking for next week! The Azores high is no where! Get ready for the AO to go positively negative next week:

Edited October 6, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[Matthew.]

The ECM is astonishing tonight. The blocking is so strong to the North it's pushing away the Atlantic    as a feather If this keeps up we'll have snow in November!

[SMU]

Spectacular ECM tonight -

Perfect easterly peaking at 168 with a scandi retrograde out to 240....

if only it was Winter !

- Vortex? what Vortex?

s

 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows what would be perfect wintry synoptics next week with a persistent chilly Easterly flow day after day, really interesting charts despite it only being early october and I hope it will be repeated during the winter because those charts in winter would produce sub zero maxima and snow showers spreading in off the north sea..

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

The ECM is astonishing tonight. The blocking is so strong to the North it's pushing away the Atlantic    as a feather If this keeps up we'll have snow in November!

 

It's a case of right setup wrong time of year from ECM another 6 weeks or so down the line we'd have much colder air and snow coming in off the north sea

[blizzard81]

It really is an incredible ECM tonight but like others have said, too early. However, if the ECM is anywhere near the money, some impressive and widespread cold will build to our east and that has to be a positive for us.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

It really is an incredible ECM tonight but like others have said, too early. However, if the ECM is anywhere near the money, some impressive and widespread cold will build to our east and that has to be a positive for us.

I completely agree, we must look at the bigger picture as russia and eastern europe would markedly cool down and if the easterly lasts long enough..so would we!

[Matthew.]

Yes a bit early but surely can't be a bad sign going through Autumn. Time will tell but the retrogression on that chart looks like something out of winter 62/63

[johnholmes]

I think a touch of realism is needed with some folk. What happens in autumn has absolutely nothing to do with what happens in winter, be it temperatures, ppn. For every case someone can show that it did in a particular year, there must be 3, 5, 7 instances that it did not.

I remember decades ago as a young meteorologist, in quiet night duties poring over 100's of charts and numeric data trying to show some kind of link. I never did and that  was after a very experienced senior forecaster suggested very early on I would not find a rule that could be applied-sorry.

Perhaps looking at very compex predictions even now from places like ECMWF and others, including UK Met, and they still find it hard to get things correct routinely. Yes, now and then, maybe 1 in 3 seasonal predictions are close to the mark. That leaves 2 out of 3 that are not. Once a season can be predicted say 2 in 3 then that will be a huge step forward.

[blizzard81]

22 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I think a touch of realism is needed with some folk. What happens in autumn has absolutely nothing to do with what happens in winter, be it temperatures, ppn. For every case someone can show that it did in a particular year, there must be 3, 5, 7 instances that it did not.

I remember decades ago as a young meteorologist, in quiet night duties poring over 100's of charts and numeric data trying to show some kind of link. I never did and that  was after a very experienced senior forecaster suggested very early on I would not find a rule that could be applied-sorry.

Perhaps looking at very compex predictions even now from places like ECMWF and others, including UK Met, and they still find it hard to get things correct routinely. Yes, now and then, maybe 1 in 3 seasonal predictions are close to the mark. That leaves 2 out of 3 that are not. Once a season can be predicted say 2 in 3 then that will be a huge step forward.

I agree but it is still fun trying :-)

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I agree but it is still fun trying :-)

Agreed, it's getting to the interesting time of year for the majority on here and a bit of fun is fine to lift the generally sober tone...models are fascinating viewing at the moment!

[johnholmes]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I agree but it is still fun trying :-)

oh I agree it is

[carinthian]

Interesting latestMaybe this chart tells a story. Still a lot of the Arctic ice free and above average temps forecast from Greenland to Siberia. Note the contrast in the land mass negative anomaly temps. This could be a new thing  for October with landmass cooling faster than Arctic region . What effect this has on the coming months , I have no idea, but interesting though.

 C

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Agreed, it's getting to the interesting time of year for the majority on here and a bit of fun is fine to lift the generally sober tone...models are fascinating viewing at the moment!

I love the build up to winter on this forum :-)

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I love the build up to winter on this forum :-)

Me too, I've been looking forward to this and the models are certainly not dull are they.

[Matthew.]

2 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Interesting latestMaybe this chart tells a story. Still a lot of the Arctic ice free and above average temps forecast from Greenland to Siberia. Note the contrast in the land mass negative anomaly temps. This could be a new thing  for October with landmass cooling faster than Arctic region . What effect this has on the coming months , I have no idea, but interesting though.

 C

Thats a great chart showing the whole picture I wonder too what impact it will have on the Jet. Anyway before i get too excited this is something good to sleep on

[blizzard81]

Just now, Frosty. said:

Me too, I've been looking forward to this and the models are certainly not dull are they.

Absolutely. Many of our harsh winters have been preceded by blocked Octobers - the Octobers of 46, 62, 78, 85, 09 to name just a few :-)

[carinthian]

10 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

TThats a great chart showing the whole picture I wonder too what impact it will have on the Jet. Anyway before i get too excited this is something good to sleep on

Unchartered territory this Mathew with so much open water in the Arctic Ocean at this time of year. The jet is likely to be meridianal rather than full frontal zonal. You could even get a Continental Polar vortex more prominent than Arctic location for a short time. Now that would play havoc with all sorts of prognosis.

 C

Edited October 6, 2016 by carinthian

[damianslaw]

Beyond the reliable timeframe, GFS indicating hints of a northerly blast in around 14 days time, as I said a very long way out, ECM suggesting retrogression of heights towards Greenland which would increase the chances of such a scenario.

Much will depend on the interaction of ex - tropical storm activity, which is continuing to be a major player in our weather this autumn.

My hunch is we may see a northerly of sorts, nothing potent but it will topple and the ridge will become a mid atlantic one, with the azores high displaced NW somewhat during the latter part of the month, meaning a more westerly/northwest airstream bringing quite chilly wet conditions to the north, drier and more near average conditions further south. Longer longer term those heights could very easily ridge back towards Greenland. 

Edited October 6, 2016 by damianslaw

[summer blizzard]

Tonight's Euro goes for retrogression. It's a thing of beauty for those of us who like a chill in the air.