Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[The PIT]

Good charts unless ypu have to do a lot of heavy physical work without air con. Not good at all. Hopefully we be modified down but a big swing from yesterdays GFS which was ideal for for me.

[Methuselah]

Not again, please! Can the models not produce some of those lovely autumn days (12C min, 22C max)? God, if next week's as sticky as this one has been, I'll jump off the roof...And sod the petunias that mother has just planted!

[knocker]

Excellent dry run for December

[phil nw.]

Yes it is quite remarkable that we seem to again be looking at another continental heat plume well into September-as CS said 30c quite possible based on the 12z charts.

GFS Tuesday

 

all courtesy of a shallow low around Biscay cut off from the main Atlantic trough slow moving to our west.If anything the UK model is a little further west with this feature on day 5 

which would pull the heat further north and west for a time.

Looking very pleasant after the week end again for much of next week with another promise of Summery conditions.

 

 

[phil nw.]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

Excellent dry run for December

Wrong statement or wrong chart Knocker?

[Glaswegianblizzard]

25 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Good charts unless ypu have to do a lot of heavy physical work without air con. Not good at all. Hopefully we be modified down but a big swing from yesterdays GFS which was ideal for for me.

15c temperature difference beween SE England and Central Scotland... 

That's a pretty big range I'd have thought.

[markyo]

Pretty certain that won't come off,again models just having a play with the data,very unreliable at this time of year especially.

[cheese]

3 minutes ago, markyo said:

Pretty certain that won't come off,again models just having a play with the data,very unreliable at this time of year especially.

It reached 26C here on Tuesday and Wednesday - but you said only low 20s for the north! 

Again, you're just letting your preferences influence what you post.

Edited September 8, 2016 by cheese

[markyo]

1 minute ago, cheese said:

It reached 26C here on Tuesday and Wednesday - but you said only low 20s for the north! 

Again, you're just letting your preferences influence what you post.

I fully agree i was out on tuesday and weds this week,i recorded 24c here in sheffield as max where i was,just always sceptical with charts showing temps either hot or cold so far out not backed by any real general consensus. Wait until winter,you will see my posts are just the same!! Think thats only fair don't you?  

[Summer Sun]

Between ECM and UKMO early next week is no clearer Monday they more or less agree the differences start from Tuesday

If ECM was closer it would still be very warm but a greater risk of thunderstorms

Edited September 8, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Scorcher]

36 minutes ago, markyo said:

Pretty certain that won't come off,again models just having a play with the data,very unreliable at this time of year especially.

 It may not come off (nobody can be 'certain' either way) but the evidence is weighing heavily in favour of a warm up next week- certainly not a lot of cool weather showing up in tonight's runs.

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Excellent dry run for December

Oh you are wicked! mind you I think we're using up all our southerlies for the year right at the moment, can't believe it will be like this for too much longer (in fact signs showing that troughing might break through into Europe properly later next week).

I think we can be fairly sure now that next Tuesday will be a hot day. I haven't seen a chart tonight to argue with that. Really touch and go what we'll get the rest of the week, though unlikely, as usual, to see the warmth persist to the weekend.

[mb018538]

Why would you even say that?? The recent hot weather was well modelled in advance and duly arrived - it almost reached 30c in the SE yesterday, and 27c the day before. There's nothing to suggest that it won't happen again. Letting personal preference take sway over what is shown is a bit silly really. But hey, each to their own. If anything, the UKMO run looks even hotter tonight, we could we'll see another 30c on the cards here.

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Excellent dry run for December

You're practising with the red crayons I see, Malcolm? Long may it continue!

[Summer Sun]

Something not right with tonight's ECM high-pressure returns for the weekend!

[knocker]

The subtle difference between the last two ecm det.runs at T144 is with the trough disruption. No longer a cut off upper low over Iberia as it has been absorbed into the next trough winging in from the west to form a new negatively tilted trough orientated just to the SE. Ergo the surface low is more adjacent and bringing with it some very warm, unstable, air Tues/WED ( possible 32C) before the temps drop 10C on Thursday. That's the theory but if the new Atlantic trough gets it skids on and travels a wee bit faster then this incursion of very warm air could be truncated.

Edited September 8, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

You're practising with the red crayons I see, Malcolm? Long may it continue!

Well I don't won't to be caught cold, Pete, So to speak.

Edited September 8, 2016 by knocker

[markyo]

34 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

 It may not come off (nobody can be 'certain' either way) but the evidence is weighing heavily in favour of a warm up next week- certainly not a lot of cool weather showing up in tonight's runs.

Shall we say interesting output then to say the least? Myself i'm betting for a change over the next 72hrs....but as usual could be wrong

[Man With Beard]

Can this ensemble set really happen in September? Obviously yes. In fact one or two runs think it's July 2006. General trend much cooler after about D7, though.

[Singularity]

Wow - I didn't expect to see such close grouping and so high up the 850 hPa temperature scale from GEFS.

Funny how ECM, which was among the first to show an ideally positioned low for 3-4 days of hot weather across a large part of England, has now produced two runs in a row with less effective positioning while the other models have trended strongly toward what it was showing 24 hours ago.

The run-to-run consistency has been poor from GFS and ECM, but UKMO and GEM are pretty resolute in their ideas for how this will pan out.

What a month this is turning out to be, if not always the most enjoyable (had some 96 hours of extensive cloud here until about 2 pm yesterday).

 

[Scorcher]

55 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Can this ensemble set really happen in September? Obviously yes. In fact one or two runs think it's July 2006. General trend much cooler after about D7, though.

Wow that really is remarkable at any time during the summer, let alone September. A very warm/hot spell next week now looks odds-on. But how long will it last? Amazing to see the highest 850 hPa temperatures in Europe over the UK (incredibly also including Southern Scotland) for midweek on the latest ECM run.

Despite pressure being lower than the recent spell, I imagine cloud would be less of a problem in that setup with more of a flow off the near continent. I imagine storms would be a possibility with that low over western France.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the ECM ens like the GEFs have jumped on a potentially hot Tuesday,

   

Mean 850s reaching 16C across parts of the UK. This coupled with the GFS suite would give rise to some confidence of getting at least one hot day, Monday looks pretty warm too for a good part of England and Wales away from the frontal systems in the north west. The ECM ens move the trough north east slowly throughout the rest of the week, that said the breakdown looks slow with the potential for further hot days.

[knocker]

The EPS is looking pretty reasonable this evening. The 4-8 anomaly, without the detail of the det. run, has the upper trough in a very favourable orientation vis. two or three days of quite warm weather before a transition at the end of the week which may well be relatively painless, although perhaps not for the NW, as the upper trough declines to be replaced with some ridging from the Azores.

Edited September 8, 2016 by knocker

[William of Walworth]

Weird month, September. I wonder where Frosty is, has he been posting of late?

 

I'm seeing a very summery week POSSIBLE for much of next week, for some,  on some synoptic updates today

 

My expectatons for a weekend (especially a weekend!) as far ahead as that of Sat 24th Sept are highly pessimistic, but IF as late as that in Sept can still retain some sort of HP influence then some types of sort of Autumn cool (but DRY!) can make me happy.

 

All depends on whether there's any chance that the lack so far of storms and washout rain can persist in the S. And if the Atlantic can contrive to  head elsewhere, Sorry NE Scotland!!

[Frosty.]

19 minutes ago, William of Walworth said:

 I wonder where Frosty is, has he been posting of late?

 

 

 

 

I've been lurking

It looks like Autumn is still on hold, potential for another summery spell next week according to the Ecm 12z with charts which look more like the height of summer!