August 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 16.2C warmer days offset by colder nights.

[Dancerwithwings]

Last month I jumped from 17th to 6th in the overall summer comp table, with my guess at 16.9c for August.....well you never know 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

3 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Last month I jumped from 17th to 6th in the overall summer comp table, with my guess at 16.9c for August.....well you never know 

 

I'm gunning for 2 titles in a row, so I'm hoping for a late month cool down with large corrections to get close to my 16.1C guess.

[Dancerwithwings]

5 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

I'm gunning for 2 titles in a row, so I'm hoping for a late month cool down with large corrections to get close to my 16.1C guess.

Yes! you took my Summer title from me back in 2014....emmm or was it 2013...Anyway not like I take it too seriously and all that  

Edited August 16, 2016 by Dancerwithwings

[Summer Sun]

16.6 to the 16th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average

0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 11.2C while maxima look like reaching the high 23s, so we should be on 16.6 or 16.7C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

16.8C to the 18th (18.9: +2.3)
16.8C to the 19th (16.8: -0.1)
16.8C to the 20th (16.8: +0.1)
16.8C to the 21st (17.0: +0.6)
16.9C to the 22nd (19.4: +2.9)
17.0C to the 23rd (18.5: +2.4)
17.0C to the 24th (17.0: +0.9)
17.0C to the 25th (17.1: +1.4)
17.0C to the 26th (16.8: +1.1)

Remaining slightly above average for the next 7-10 days it seems. By the update to the 18th we should be up to the 81-10 average, and ahead by the 20th.
We're now at the time of year where the CET average begins to drop away, from 16.9C on the 19th to 15.7C on the 26th. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 16.2C should be a slow drop for the next few days looking at the local forecast values.

[Summer Sun]

16.7 to the 17th

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The 06z GFS again teasing with record breaking heat toward the end of the run, with the 22nd to the 27th averaging 21.3C, and several daily records being set. I'll do a full update tomorrow.

[Roger J Smith]

If we reach 17.0 by Sunday 21st which seems possible (especially after corrections) then the outcome would be:

for 16.0 rest of month, 16.7.

for 17.0 rest of month, 17.0

for 18.0 rest of month, 17.3

for 19.0 rest of month, 17.6

for 20.0 rest of month, 18.0

so it's now looking good for the 17 to 18 forecasts. Looking at the current output I would estimate 17.5 (more like after than before adjustments). 

[Man With Beard]

3 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

If we reach 17.0 by Sunday 21st which seems possible (especially after corrections) then the outcome would be:

for 16.0 rest of month, 16.7.

for 17.0 rest of month, 17.0

for 18.0 rest of month, 17.3

for 19.0 rest of month, 17.6

for 20.0 rest of month, 18.0

so it's now looking good for the 17 to 18 forecasts. Looking at the current output I would estimate 17.5 (more like after than before adjustments). 

Oh dear - one of those hot GFS runs will devastate my attempt on the CET challenge...

[DAVID SNOW]

5 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

If we reach 17.0 by Sunday 21st which seems possible (especially after corrections) then the outcome would be:

for 16.0 rest of month, 16.7.

for 17.0 rest of month, 17.0

for 18.0 rest of month, 17.3

for 19.0 rest of month, 17.6

for 20.0 rest of month, 18.0

so it's now looking good for the 17 to 18 forecasts. Looking at the current output I would estimate 17.5 (more like after than before adjustments). 

Agreed regarding current output, but, do you think Roger,  when the models have 'peaked' some 5 days plus out, whether that be hot or cold, the  actual weather on the day(s) is  very  much 'down graded'

Seems to happen an awful lot 'here' ,.

[Roger J Smith]

I suspect the GFS may be a bit over the top when it brings 570 dm thicknesses into the UK, it did that a week ago for yesterday's warmth then backed off a little. However, the ECM and GEM are also running quite warm next week.

I had a look at the 12z GFS and it would give an end of month 17.5 to 18.0, ECM looks around 17.5 by 28th and GEM similar.

So it is certainly looking very well supported, in terms of the contest, anything over 17.0 will have almost the same results on scoring anyway if you look at the actual forecasts, one or two in the higher 17s are not very highly positioned so I think if the month ends up above 17.0 the order will tighten up again, Don and myself will benefit the most from that (not sure how many if any positions we might stand to gain, perhaps one or two). So for that reason alone, this will probably fall apart fairly quickly.

 

[Summer Sun]

16.8 to the 18th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 14.7C while maxima look like reaching the high 18s, so remaining on 16.8C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

16.7C to the 20th (15.9: -0.8)
16.8C to the 21st (17.4: +1.0)
16.9C to the 22nd (19.5: +3.0)
17.0C to the 23rd (20.4: +4.3)
17.3C to the 24th (22.4: +6.3) [Record High: 21.5C]
17.5C to the 25th (22.0: +6.3) [Record High: 20.9C]
17.6C to the 26th (22.2: +6.5) [Record High: 20.6C]
17.8C to the 27th (21.0: +5.6)
17.8C to the 28th (20.0: +4.9)

The GFS still going for an exceptional warm spell to finish off the month, with several record breaking days.
The warmest final 10 days of August on record is 19.3C from 1955. If the 06z GFS comes off, the final 3 days would need to average just 15.4C to beat that record.

[Relativistic]

1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Minimum today is 14.7C while maxima look like reaching the high 18s, so remaining on 16.8C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

16.7C to the 20th (15.9: -0.8)
16.8C to the 21st (17.4: +1.0)
16.9C to the 22nd (19.5: +3.0)
17.0C to the 23rd (20.4: +4.3)
17.3C to the 24th (22.4: +6.3) [Record High: 21.5C]
17.5C to the 25th (22.0: +6.3) [Record High: 20.9C]
17.6C to the 26th (22.2: +6.5) [Record High: 20.6C]
17.8C to the 27th (21.0: +5.6)
17.8C to the 28th (20.0: +4.9)

The GFS still going for an exceptional warm spell to finish off the month, with several record breaking days.
The warmest final 10 days of August on record is 19.3C from 1955. If the 06z GFS comes off, the final 3 days would need to average just 15.4C to beat that record.

Based on these estimates, the week-long period commencing on the 22nd would have a CET of 21.1C, and would make it one of the hottest  August weeks on record. Only six years are able to match or beat this figure, those being 1893, 1911, 1975, 1995, 1997, and 2003. The hottest ever such period is tied between 5th-11th August 2003, and 3rd-9th August 1975, with CETs of 22.3C.

If the forecast for the week commencing on the 22nd were to come off, it would be really quite remarkable given how late it is. The next warmest August week to start as late or later was 25th-31st August 1930, with a CET of 19.9C (miles behind!), followed closely by 22nd-28th 1955, and 23rd-29th 1990, both of which were 19.8C.

[reef]

If this month were to finish on 17.8C then this summer would be the 10th warmest since 1900 and joint 19th warmest in the entire CET series!

Like a lot of other good summers it would have a disappointing June (rain and sunshine-wise) and good July and August aswell. 

 

Edited August 19, 2016 by reef

[DAVID SNOW]

On ‎18‎/‎08‎/‎2016 at 23:18, Roger J Smith said:

I suspect the GFS may be a bit over the top when it brings 570 dm thicknesses into the UK, it did that a week ago for yesterday's warmth then backed off a little. However, the ECM and GEM are also running quite warm next week.

I had a look at the 12z GFS and it would give an end of month 17.5 to 18.0, ECM looks around 17.5 by 28th and GEM similar.

So it is certainly looking very well supported, in terms of the contest, anything over 17.0 will have almost the same results on scoring anyway if you look at the actual forecasts, one or two in the higher 17s are not very highly positioned so I think if the month ends up above 17.0 the order will tighten up again, Don and myself will benefit the most from that (not sure how many if any positions we might stand to gain, perhaps one or two). So for that reason alone, this will probably fall apart fairly quickly.

 

The ECM, easing off the gas somewhat, but the GFS still foot to the floor.

And now its blown a gasket...

Edited August 20, 2016 by DAVID SNOW

[BornFromTheVoid]

After the extreme warmth show in recent days, this mornings 0z GFS has shifted most of the exteme heat into the south east corner of the UK, with no more record breaking days but still a lengthy warm spell. The start of a trend or will the 06z runs bring back the record breaking heat?

[Summer Sun]

16.8 to the 19th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

12z GFS is a very warm run and I would estimate 18.0 as a finishing point, some days would be 21-22. 

[Roger J Smith]

But the ECM estimate is 17.2 -- still a significant gap. 

[DAVID SNOW]

At this point then, a final figure of 16.9, after corrections, could be close?

[Roger J Smith]

Would say 17.2 to 17.5 is the core of the most probable finish zone (after corrections) but 16.9 is by no means out of the running.

[DR(S)NO]

On 19 August 2016 at 16:56, reef said:

If this month were to finish on 17.8C then this summer would be the 10th warmest since 1900 and joint 19th warmest in the entire CET series!

Like a lot of other good summers it would have a disappointing June (rain and sunshine-wise) and good July and August aswell. 

 

With 11 days of the month left I think there is still quite a large range of possible outcomes when it comes to the final temp.

Apologies for picking your quote Reef....it may well end up being the 19 th warmest in the CET series but it just goes to show the great differences in weather experienced  around our country.

Could be wrong but I guess there are many who would dispute the idea that this has been a good Summer ... And, indeed , whether it's been a good July and August.

The only statement I could make about this Summer in my neck of the woods is that it's been better than last Summer.