Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

[stainesbloke]

Hail, thunder and lightning being reported by a friend in Bracknell, Berkshire.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

@stainesbloke yep did you see that flash of lightning?  Wow! The thunder was epic too. A nice surprise! 

[stainesbloke]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

@stainesbloke yep did you see that flash of lightning?  Wow! The thunder was epic too. A nice surprise! 

Didn't think that was in the forecast lol!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just now, stainesbloke said:

Didn't think that was in the forecast lol!

Nope lol! Good old British weather 

[Windblade]

22 hours ago, TropicThunder said:

Yes same here, May and early June were pretty good but since then the last two months have been dire, with barely even a hint of a storm.  Looking at the US lighting up like a Christmas tree on Blitzortung every day makes it so frustrating, really wish I lived there!

I also have to agree. May was rubbish but June was promising and things were looking up for a while after seeing that night time storm and a day of constant rumbles that month. However, since then its been a complete and total dismal letdown, with absolutely nothing in July and things do not look to pick up anytime soon this month so far. I'm not sure why we don't get epic storms anymore like we used to in the 80's, 90's and early 00's?

Edited August 9, 2016 by Windblade

[Dangerous55019]

Just been having a look and cherry picked this chart for next Tuesday afternoon 
I know its a long way off and that the chances of this happening are pretty remote, but hey... Its a nice chart to look at 

... Memo to self: Please remember that I'm still receiving counselling after the last Spanish plume event failed to deliver anything more than one poxy clap of thunder for my area  

Edited August 9, 2016 by Dangerous55019
Typo

[alexisj9]

50 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Just been having a look and cherry picked this chart for next Tuesday afternoon 
I know its a long way off and that the chances of this happening are pretty remote, but hey... Its a nice chart to look at 

... Memo to self: Please remember that I'm still receiving counselling after the last Spanish plume event failed to deliver anything more than one poxy clap of thunder for my area  

I'm forgetting the charts, somewhere got a surprise thunder storm yesterday, not much but it's something. You really never know what will happen sometimes.

[Windblade]

2 hours ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Just been having a look and cherry picked this chart for next Tuesday afternoon 
I know its a long way off and that the chances of this happening are pretty remote, but hey... Its a nice chart to look at 

... Memo to self: Please remember that I'm still receiving counselling after the last Spanish plume event failed to deliver anything more than one poxy clap of thunder for my area  

One clap of thunder? Consider yourself fortunate - that's more than I got. All I had for an entire week was stifling hot temperatures and pretty much no sleep that week due to it. What was most frustrating for me is we were the hottest part of the country by some margin, yet there was absolutely cloudless skies the entire week. All that heat and nowhere for it to go. I do not welcome another plume like that.

Edited August 9, 2016 by Windblade

[alexisj9]

12 minutes ago, Windblade said:

One clap of thunder? Consider yourself fortunate - that's more than I got. All I had for an entire week was stifling hot temperatures and pretty much no sleep that week due to it. What was most frustrating for me is we were the hottest part of the country by some margin, yet there was absolutely cloudless skies the entire week. All that heat and nowhere for it to go. I do not welcome another plume like that.

I never even got that lol, still waiting for the brake down which has come silently.

[Weather-history]

A few showers today

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

15 hours ago, Windblade said:

One clap of thunder? Consider yourself fortunate - that's more than I got. All I had for an entire week was stifling hot temperatures and pretty much no sleep that week due to it. What was most frustrating for me is we were the hottest part of the country by some margin, yet there was absolutely cloudless skies the entire week. All that heat and nowhere for it to go. I do not welcome another plume like that.

Yep. Still smarts to think about it and if there's any justice the north won't get all the storms this time round.

We've only had one proper storm so far this year in my neck of the woods and even that was a bit on the quiet side. We deserve one summer storm at least, and especially if we have to endure most of the warm muggy nights and excessive temps.

[Shane Wheeldon]

On 09/08/2016 at 12:57, Dangerous55019 said:

Just been having a look and cherry picked this chart for next Tuesday afternoon 
I know its a long way off and that the chances of this happening are pretty remote, but hey... Its a nice chart to look at 

... Memo to self: Please remember that I'm still receiving counselling after the last Spanish plume event failed to deliver anything more than one poxy clap of thunder for my area  

I will take that to the bank! The last plume event was a bust round here (well Telford anyway!)

[Speedway Slider]

BBC Weather intimated of some warmer weather over the weekend, and warming further in the early part of next week, in fact I'm sure they said last night that we could have some high numbers next week....?

Any truth.....  no, is their much confidence in this warm-up?

[Convective]

Heeeeeeere we go again......!

[cheese]

7 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Yep. Still smarts to think about it and if there's any justice the north won't get all the storms this time round.

We've only had one proper storm so far this year in my neck of the woods and even that was a bit on the quiet side. We deserve one summer storm at least, and especially if we have to endure most of the warm muggy nights and excessive temps.

We've had no storms at all here this year, and just one day with thunder, so you've had one more than me.

Edited August 10, 2016 by cheese

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Really hope we can brew something out of this plume coming up. We are so overdue a proper full on MCS, it's been too long. 

Just been on that site which showed MCS's from 1981 to 1997 and there's 32 of them in total! That's an average of two per annum between those years. 4 of those systems covered an area over 100,000km2 too believe it or not. That is monstrous! Incredible. Whatever has gone wrong, I'll never know. 

Heres the site. Well worth a look and especially to those who claim that the 90's memories is just a case of 'selective memory'. It really isn't! It's gospel truth. 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1998.tb06352.x/asset/j.1477-8696.1998.tb06352.x.pdf;jsessionid=6A893CD724E922B94303ACDB94149BD0.f01t03?v=1&t=iprg36xy&s=3f6e2ed50981601a31a5386341a8c6d95940bc2c 

Edited August 11, 2016 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Chris K]

1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Really hope we can brew something out of this plume coming up. We are so overdue a proper full on MCS, it's been too long. 

Just been on that site which showed MCS's from 1981 to 1997 and there's 32 of them in total! That's an average of two per annum between those years. 4 of those systems covered over 100,000km2 too believe it or not. Incredible. Whatever has gone wrong, I'll never know. 

Heres the site. Well worth a look and especially to those who claim that the 90's memories is just a case of 'selective memory'. It really isn't! It's gospel truth. 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1998.tb06352.x/asset/j.1477-8696.1998.tb06352.x.pdf;jsessionid=6A893CD724E922B94303ACDB94149BD0.f01t03?v=1&t=iprg36xy&s=3f6e2ed50981601a31a5386341a8c6d95940bc2c 

What I like about this coming plume is a possibility of low pressure increasingly behind held back like in winter charts as it tries to go against High pressure to our E/NE. That spells stalling, or at least slower moving, weather front into warm/moist airmass and if/where it stalls it could be an interesting light show. Interesting few days to watch models to see just how quickly the cooler air is ushered in. It looks to still do so, but maybe not without a fight.

Current charts remind me of little bit of 9th May 2008 where much of the SW. W country, Wales were battered under a slow moving cold front. Although back then a blocking high was situated over Greenland and the CF actually got pushed back West thanks to blocking high building over scandi. In this case it looks to keep pushing through.

Edited August 10, 2016 by Chris K

[Windblade]

Not building my hopes up but its looking good at the moment for mid next week for the south east. About time we had a proper storm in these parts. I really don't know whats gone wrong this past decade with regards to storms. They used to be very frequent and last for hours in my area during summertime with a lot of storms coming after dark and still rumbling away at 8am the next morning. Nowadays were lucky to get the odd cloud fart or 1 or 2 pulse storms per year.

Edited August 12, 2016 by Windblade

[Chris K]

Following on from my post above on Weds, although heat has been forecast down a tad, the weather front from the West does want to make slower ingress into the UK. However in all honesty the low-resolution model runs show it to be quite a weak affair for Southern areas at this time, apart from some potential downpours along this front. (particularly further North and perhaps SE corner)

Looking at the Fax charts, the times in question are just coming into range. This currently shows a surface trough feature (just sat off the west coast  and up through Ireland in this image) moving in on Tuesday afternoon, followed behind by that rather lengthy trailing front west of Ireland associated with that LP between Iceland and Greenland.

For storms, we need to see enough instability present for this feature to engage and if this were to occur, the timings will determine the key areas most likely to see any downpours. It will also be interesting to see how those LP systems way down in the Atlantic develop as they swing up NE and the consequences this may cause to the overall Western Europe/UK pressure pattern.

If heights are buffered to our E/NE and LP starts to stall to our W/SW, chances of storms could increase given the right set up.

 

Edited August 12, 2016 by Chris K

[William Grimsley]

Good evening, guys! I am back! Interesting bit of convective weather coming up! Looks like the potential of elevated thunderstorms on Tuesday Night for SW areas but haven't looked in detail and certainly not getting hopes up at this range.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, William Grimsley said:

Good evening, guys! I am back! Interesting bit of convective weather coming up! Looks like the potential of elevated thunderstorms on Tuesday Night for SW areas but haven't looked in detail and certainly not getting hopes up at this range.

good to see you back William! yes thunderstorms possible Tue/Wed, Wed now looking more likely and hottest day

[William Grimsley]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

good to see you back William!

Thank you, just needed some time away to rethink my actions on the forum.

[stainesbloke]

On 10 August 2016 at 19:27, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Really hope we can brew something out of this plume coming up. We are so overdue a proper full on MCS, it's been too long. 

Just been on that site which showed MCS's from 1981 to 1997 and there's 32 of them in total! That's an average of two per annum between those years. 4 of those systems covered an area over 100,000km2 too believe it or not. That is monstrous! Incredible. Whatever has gone wrong, I'll never know. 

Heres the site. Well worth a look and especially to those who claim that the 90's memories is just a case of 'selective memory'. It really isn't! It's gospel truth. 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1998.tb06352.x/asset/j.1477-8696.1998.tb06352.x.pdf;jsessionid=6A893CD724E922B94303ACDB94149BD0.f01t03?v=1&t=iprg36xy&s=3f6e2ed50981601a31a5386341a8c6d95940bc2c 

Excellently put. My weather interest really started in 1981 with storms and then snow. I clearly remember many of these MCS's, they used to happen every few years at least. Makes the last 10-15 years really stick out as being different. One aspect to the lack of thundery episodes in recent years seems to be due to the strength of the jet and the rapid sweeping east of any plumes, before they have a chance to deliver anything. Next week looks quite interesting as the breakdown is slower/more amplified.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

20 hours ago, William Grimsley said:

Thank you, just needed some time away to rethink my actions on the forum.

Good to see u back dude. Since you've been away we haven't had any storms - do you have some sort of secret weather control machine hidden away you haven't told us about?

[William Grimsley]

21 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Good to see u back dude. Since you've been away we haven't had any storms - do you have some sort of secret weather control machine hidden away you haven't told us about?

Thank you. Not at all, in fact I'm not really going to be posting until we get any actual thunderstorms, I've got excited over nothing too many times!