Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

[weather09]

Also, just to clarify, I meant Estofex issuing a forecast tomorrow, not for tomorow.  Although there will be a lot of CAPE tomorrow afternoon, likely to be free of storms pretty much everywhere until late Tues evening when destabilisation arrives for NI and then Scotland.  Weds morning sees second round over SW/Wales/poss. W Midlands, moving NNE. 

Edited July 18, 2016 by weather09

[sn0wman]

11 minutes ago, weather09 said:

Would imagine Estofex will indeed go with a level 2 tomorrow for Wales, N England, and Scotland, where all factors relevant for severe convective weather will coincide.  For here, best case scenario we might just scrape it lol. ECM and 00z GFS have slightly more veer to the winds aloft, but destabilisation really occurring over aforementioned regions, so.. Who knows.

Next few meso. model runs should be interesting.

Can I just say that your posts are always extremely informative and accurate during convective periods! Thanks very much for them  I'm going to be studying meteorology at uni and this forum has definitely helped a lot with understanding the science behind weather.

Very interesting to see that my area may be in the running for thunderstorms. It's been 10 years since we've had anything more than a pulse storm here - the last proper thunderstorm was May 2006, when an amazing MCS developed. July 1st last year was probably the best potential my area could have but the thunderstorms sadly developed to the east of here. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

What's the closest place worth chasing to in terms of people residing in the London area? Bristol? South Wales?

my real concern is that most storm activity is going to be in the far north overnight and then Wales and Midlands during rush hour and into the afternoon. This would make chasing anything unjustifiable for me :-(

[ChezWeather]

Will the eastward shift happen!? Its all to play for yet...

I can see it now, Derbyshire gets a biblical storm whilst im here in Lincolnshire.

[Ben Sainsbury]

24 minutes ago, sn0wman said:

Can I just say that your posts are always extremely informative and accurate during convective periods! Thanks very much for them  I'm going to be studying meteorology at uni and this forum has definitely helped a lot with understanding the science behind weather.

Very interesting to see that my area may be in the running for thunderstorms. It's been 10 years since we've had anything more than a pulse storm here - the last proper thunderstorm was May 2006, when an amazing MCS developed. July 1st last year was probably the best potential my area could have but the thunderstorms sadly developed to the east of here. 

Hey man, I'm in a similar situation as you and being on this forum for 4 years it's being an amazing experience to be part of this forum and have learnt very much! I hope we see an MCS clatter the whole west of England hehe!

[Raidan]

5 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Hey man, I'm in a similar situation as you and being on this forum for 4 years it's being an amazing experience to be part of this forum and have learnt very much! I hope we see an MCS clatter the whole west of England hehe!

Now that would nice but to be honest i dont expect to see anything tomorrow hope im wrong.

[StormChaseUK]

BBC lunchtime weather mentioned 35c max possible tomorrow.

[MrNooo]

12 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

What's the closest place worth chasing to in terms of people residing in the London area? Bristol? South Wales?

my real concern is that most storm activity is going to be in the far north overnight and then Wales and Midlands during rush hour and into the afternoon. This would make chasing anything unjustifiable for me :-(

I would think, head up the M4, then A419/417 towards M5, good spot up by the Air Balloon roundabout (on the Cotswold edge, so good views), from there you could then go up the M5 if needed or head onto the A49 to Hereford and then up to the A5, you'd be well North West of Brum then.

[The PIT]

20 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Will the eastward shift happen!? Its all to play for yet...

I can see it now, Derbyshire gets a biblical storm whilst im here in Lincolnshire.

The trend seems to be northwards and westward so unlikely to switch back east.

[AWD]

32 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

What's the closest place worth chasing to in terms of people residing in the London area? Bristol? South Wales?

my real concern is that most storm activity is going to be in the far north overnight and then Wales and Midlands during rush hour and into the afternoon. This would make chasing anything unjustifiable for me :-(

Bristol!!!!!!

Good Luck there.

Don't think anyone has ever chased anything in Bristol, except perhaps George Ferguson.

Edited July 18, 2016 by AWD
Add on.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Seeing what looks to be a line of towering cumulus over Lincs way! Something to keep an eye on this afternoon and into the evening. 

[bigguscumulus]

Sweltering , well at least I should be awake if a storm passes nearby.

[Summer Sun]

Moderate shower this came from nowhere

Edited July 18, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Boro Snow]

Yep soaked outside school nothing on radar yet 

[Summer Sun]

Just now, Boro Snow said:

Yep soaked outside school nothing on radar yet 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

43 minutes ago, MrNooo said:

I would think, head up the M4, then A419/417 towards M5, good spot up by the Air Balloon roundabout (on the Cotswold edge, so good views), from there you could then go up the M5 if needed or head onto the A49 to Hereford and then up to the A5, you'd be well North West of Brum then.

Sounds like sound advice, and also sounds like a fair way but I'll do anything for a good storm!

[Azazel]

looks like the heat is going to fizzle out with a whimper here. Ahhh well, at least I got some summer weather finally!

[Windblade]

4 hours ago, John Hodgson said:

Yes! It bugs me as much as when the media use "mini tornado" etc. I get it on a spring pulse storm like day when there's the odd crack of thunder, but not when there's a risk of severe thunderstorms. 

"Mini Tornado"  or "What appeared to be" (a tornado)  Grrrrrr.

Edited July 18, 2016 by Windblade

[Windblade]

Is there any chance of anything down south further into the weekend? I know its a way away yet, but I need some hope dammit! I'd even settle for some pulse storms at this point!!!

Edited July 18, 2016 by Windblade

[Guest]

I was cheering the Netweather update this morning as they mentioned 'thunderstorms' for Tuesday. I read on and see the vocabulary switch to 'thundery downpours' for Wednesday's forecast. Don't go all BBC on us Netweather!

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, ChezWeather said:

Will the eastward shift happen!? Its all to play for yet...

I can see it now, Derbyshire gets a biblical storm whilst im here in Lincolnshire.

We can but hope!

[weatherobsuk]

Manchester TAF short-term is going for rain showers into the evening tonight.

Just as I say that, there looks to be a small cell towards the Stockport area, very localised.

Edited July 18, 2016 by SNOW_JOKE

[Stormraider]

1 hour ago, MrNooo said:

I would think, head up the M4, then A419/417 towards M5, good spot up by the Air Balloon roundabout (on the Cotswold edge, so good views), from there you could then go up the M5 if needed or head onto the A49 to Hereford and then up to the A5, you'd be well North West of Brum then.

Birdlip has a fantastic view to the West. Ideal for storms.

[Mesoscale]

Oh no I sense a 2012 situation coming again, super cells in the north and down here it will be hot and sticky with wall to wall blue sky! 

[Weather-history]

Is it notable that GFS even at 6am Wednesday, still have -ve LI values across England and Wales? 

 

Edited July 18, 2016 by Weather-history