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5 minutes ago, snowtimenow said:

Hate the word mild for Oct and Nov, mild in those two months is not seasonal, not for me anyway.

By mild I mean warmer than average.  Our Nov average high is 11c (20c in Sep, 16c in Oct).

 

We usually get our first frost in late November.

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35 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I can flush my theory down the toilet then:oops:

I was interested in this theory, especially last year when there quite a few fog instances in October, and went back through my records but actually found that the autumns with more fog more often than not led to more unsettled and more cold-devoid winters e.g. 2007/8 and 2011/12.

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On 24/07/2016 at 20:21, iapennell said:

Where I live near Nenthead, high up in the North Pennines, we used to get air frosts in August. The last time that happened was in 1999!

Certainly frost used to be more frequent (and more severe) in autumns gone by. I have recorded -3C in late September in 1995 and in October I have recorded -8C (in 1983 and 1993). However in the last 13 years I have recorded nothing below -3C in October and there have been seasons where not a single air-frost has occurred until November. That would have been unthinkable at over 400 metres up in the North Pennines at one time. We also used to have early snowfalls, there was an October evening in the mid 1970s (1974, I believe) when my parents rushed out to get the cows in on our farm (where I still live) because it was snowing hard and the poor cows had four inches of thick snow on their backs!! Yes, this was mid-October! We have now had no October snowfall for eight years. At another extreme we also used to get more severe gales- in early autumn. We would get gales in August and September and severe ones too,- on 27th September 1982 a really severe gale uprooted a tree in the little paddock nest to our home- severe gales are now rare before November.

The autumn storm tracks have shifted northwards to the Arctic and though the westerlies associated with them have become a bit stronger they miss all but NW Scotland until late in the autumn- so we don't get the autumnal equinox gales we once did. Instead these Westerlies- to the north- form a barrier preventing the penetration of very cold Arctic air over Britain for most of the autumn. Also the Arctic has also become a bit less cold in recent autumns.  All of which means less early snowfalls and less early sharp frosts. I suspect that a similar theme will unfold this autumn too.

Sorry for the late reply (busy with my thesis)

Thanks for this detailed reply. Its really interesting to know. My mom says that in the 80's when she used to start school again in September, it used to be quite chilly. 

 

Why have storm tracks shifted north?

I read an article the other day that clouds are moving north

Its amazing that over the last couple of winters, I can count of one hand the number of times I have seen the frost. 

On Christmas eve at night I remember I only had a jacket on!!

 

Do you think we could ever see a frost again in September? 

 

 

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18 hours ago, iapennell said:

https://nwf.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_2016_07/cansips_mslpa_global_3.png.3476fb12d55e63a0956236671ecfc47a.png

With respect to this outlook Autumn 2016 looks like it could shape up decidedly unsettled just about everywhere. Each of the three months depicts high-pressure over the Azores and a healthy Icelandic Low with strong Westerlies in between making a bee-line for the UK. Doesn't look like there will be any crisp frosty weather, judging by these charts I would be inclined to state that most parts of Britain will be waiting until November until they get their first air-frost! 

However I am not so pessimistic about a good deal of fine dry weather in most of England and Wales during September and early October, Scotland along with Cumbria and Northern Ireland will be wet and windy during this period. However with prevailing winds likely to be Westerly even in the South during this period there is unlikely to be any really crisp frosty weather! 

Evening iapennell :)
Weather front sweeping across the British Isles, leaving in their wake sunshine and showers I'll take!!:good:
Its the thought of these weather fronts clearing the UK, or stalling over it giving us yet more endless days of grey... Nah. *shudders* :nea:

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18 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Well if we get westerly gales in October, then we can rule out any snow in the winter, as fog will be limited, I go by how much fog we get in October as an indicated of how cold the winter will be, I know it's weather folk lore but it works for me. Had no fog for three years now and no snow. Had plenty of fog in 2008, 2010.

Now't wrong with weather folk lore... For a lot of localities, it works well Lassie 23 :good:

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Last severe gale in September I've recorded was 12th September 2011 - very windy day indeed. 

Last frost I recorded in October was 2012, incidentally when I was living in Spain. So before then, I last saw an October frost in 2010.

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1 hour ago, MP-R said:

Last severe gale in September I've recorded was 12th September 2011 - very windy day indeed. 

Last frost I recorded in October was 2012, incidentally when I was living in Spain. So before then, I last saw an October frost in 2010.

Evening MP-R :)
Yes... 12th September 2011 as a very windy day indeed!
We did have October and November frosts back in 2013... I need to check my records, but I'm sure that we even managed a frost day back in November 2013 as well.
But for the record, my last recorded frost in September was back in 2012... I think we dropped down to -2'C on the 22nd of September... But I'd have to check.:rolleyes:

... And I should point out that the -2 was recorded by me and not at an official weather station :pardon:

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On 25/07/2016 at 23:12, iapennell said:

@damianslaw You mention in your reply the Octobers of 2008 and 2012: Yes I did record snow (just a little) along with some air frosts late in each of these months. However these conditions only occurred during the last week of the month and I recorded extreme minima of -3C in October 2008 and just -2C in October 2012.

However I have recorded much more severe (and persistent) cold in Octobers past. In October 1992 there was air-frost on almost half the nights and there was significant snowfall on the 25th and overnight 30th/31st a minimum temperature of -6C was recorded. The average temperature for the entire month of October 1992 was a chilly 4.4C.

The next year, October 1993 was also cold with a similar number of air frosts. I recorded two nights mid-month a minimum temperature of -8C. Yes, this was in a Stevenson Screen 1.2 metres off the ground ; the ground temperature both nights fell to -14C. Overnight 28th/29th October 1983 also produced a severe air frost with a minimum temperature of -8C. That day, I watched the leaves which had lingered on the ash trees fall off as if cut off with a knife and all trees in the district were entirely bare by the end of that day 

 

Of course, my home is just over 400 metres above sea-level in the North Pennines, but even so we used to get much colder spells of weather from early in the Autumn onwards.

 

i think the warming of the arctic must be having some affect, probably as you say steering low pressure systems to our NW and locking us into westerly/southwesterly airstream, a colder arctic interacting with the warm tropical air pumped up from the SW, enhances a steeper temp gradient and thus creates the energy for deep depressions to form over north atlantic these then pulling down colder north and northwest airstreams behind and temporary ridge development - October 1993 saw such conditions with very cold northerlies. Oct 1992 was an anomaly mind, with persistant north easterly airstream which isn't the norm for October. 

A warmer arctic though can  be a conducive factor for a colder winter, but the effects don't tend to take affect until later in November at the earliest - 2010 being a good example, but not all years.. as recent history has shown.

It would be good to see a cold anticyclonic spell at some stage in October, but by then the atlantic traditionally has the upper hand, late October is traditionally a very unsettled period of the year. 

Our weather seems to have got stuck into lengthy similiar patterns in recent years, our summers have seen lots of northern blocking - again the warm arctic must be a key factor, but come October the atlantic has traditionally ruled the roost.. still think our winters are becoming more extreme and varied though - very cold or very mild... 

 

 

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Another sign that autumn is fast approaching, I've just heard the autumn song of the robin, from the woodland behind the horses stables. :D
They normally change their song after they've finished moulting.
The robin's autumn song is one of the soundtracks to shortening days, gathering mists and ripening fruit (as I heard it put on the radio 4 one morning) :D

(Not my photo by the way... It was just one I found after a quick Googling session)

Robin.jpg

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20 hours ago, Dangerous55019 said:

I have to say that today whilst sorting the horses out I noticed that a few of the trees are just starting to gain their autumn plumage!!
Just felt I'd share that with you all :acute:

Also a sign of dehydration. Have you had much rain?

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2 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Also a sign of dehydration. Have you had much rain?

Just the odd 'lite passing shower' virtually every day TONA. Lol :shok:
Which (as you can see) managed to softened the ground up a little. Lol :laugh:
I'll try and get some pics for you so you can see what I mean :D

IMG_6927.JPG

IMG_7463.JPG

IMG_5388.JPG

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4 hours ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Another sign that autumn is fast approaching, I've just heard the autumn song of the robin, from the woodland behind the horses stables. :D
They normally change their song after they've finished moulting.
The robin's autumn song is one of the soundtracks to shortening days, gathering mists and ripening fruit (as I heard it put on the radio 4 one morning) :D

(Not my photo by the way... It was just one I found after a quick Googling session)

Robin.jpg

They haven't been away, here. I get a Robin or two in the garden, practically every day.

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24 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

They haven't been away, here. I get a Robin or two in the garden, practically every day.

Evening Mapantz :)
I've just found the clip on the Radio 4 web page that explains about the autumn song of the robin.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b038qhyz

The robins are here all year round, but they change their song in the autumn/winter when compared to the spring and summer. :)

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I certainly noticed some browning trees before I came on holiday but that was mainly due to the dry June and July. I have a feeling, if the more recent charts are a sign of things to come, that everything will be as green as the end of May by the end of August!

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The other day I commented that I'd noticed a few trees starting to gain their autumn plumage... So today I managed to grab a few photos :)
Ok... There're not the best photos I know:pardon:
But I'd say that they're on the turn :good:

On The Turn (1).jpg

On The Turn (2).jpg

On The Turn (3).jpg

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I see that Gavs Weather Vids have just issued the Second Autumn 2016 model update :)

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

It does rather say that an Atlantic driven autumn is on the cards... But I do wonder if these computer models are picking up on the fact that the hurricane season could be about to start getting going? :unknw:

 

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^^^^^^^^^^

So a strong signal from the models for a warmer then average autumn,yet another autumn for the scrap heap so. Autumn just isnt autumn to me with mostly above average temps. The models are showing everything i dont want ,mild and wet. I would love a cool and dry autumn but thats looking like a long shot this yr yet again.

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Yep agree with the posts above. A continuation of the pattern we've seen, maybe the cyclone becoming more active later on. Nothing significantly above average maybe 1c or so at best, which would be similar to recent months. Maybe October staying warmer because of thermal lag which would be following a trend of recent years(bar 2/3 of last October). A change must eventually come though to a settled period, maybe a blocked winter, who knows:cc_confused:

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2 hours ago, Dangerous55019 said:

I see that Gavs Weather Vids have just issued the Second Autumn 2016 model update :)

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

It does rather say that an Atlantic driven autumn is on the cards... But I do wonder if these computer models are picking up on the fact that the hurricane season could be about to start getting going? :unknw:

 

The UKMO Model has surprising agreement to my earlier suggestion of a slightly cooler than normal and wet early autumn (September-early October) for the North and Scotland. A number of the other models indicate drier than normal weather in the South but there seems to be a consensus that it will be wetter (more so in the north) and drier in the South with prevailing Westerlies. With the weather likely to become wetter and stormier in late October-November the season could well end up wetter than normal in most places. Although I think strong Westerlies will largely prevent unusually cold weather (with night frosts) from the Arctic I do not think the season will be warmer than normal this year because of the specific orientation of the Westerlies over the UK. A significant patch of the North Atlantic remains colder than usual and this will modify the westerlies coming off it and I would also assert that the cold waters just west of Britain will encourage high-pressure there shifting the prevailing winds from south-westerly to westerly over most of the country, at least through to mid-October.

From mid-October onwards seasonal cooling over continental Europe tends to encourage more high-pressure there and with the strengthening Polar Vortex likely to switch to a three-wave model (with an upper ridge anchored to the Rockies through topographical locking) deeper depressions push east across the far North Atlantic and with high-pressure over central Europe and the Med a stronger more south-westerly airstream is certain to develop over Britain bringing not just wet to most of the country but also above-average temperatures. Even then, temperatures are not likely to be much above normal for late-October and November as the patch of cool NE Atlantic water extends to west of Spain;- tropical maritime air-masses would have to cross this before reaching Britain and these will arrive with a slightly lower temperature than they otherwise would as a result.

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47 minutes ago, iapennell said:

The UKMO Model has surprising agreement to my earlier suggestion of a slightly cooler than normal and wet early autumn (September-early October) for the North and Scotland. A number of the other models indicate drier than normal weather in the South but there seems to be a consensus that it will be wetter (more so in the north) and drier in the South with prevailing Westerlies. With the weather likely to become wetter and stormier in late October-November the season could well end up wetter than normal in most places. Although I think strong Westerlies will largely prevent unusually cold weather (with night frosts) from the Arctic I do not think the season will be warmer than normal this year because of the specific orientation of the Westerlies over the UK. A significant patch of the North Atlantic remains colder than usual and this will modify the westerlies coming off it and I would also assert that the cold waters just west of Britain will encourage high-pressure there shifting the prevailing winds from south-westerly to westerly over most of the country, at least through to mid-October.

From mid-October onwards seasonal cooling over continental Europe tends to encourage more high-pressure there and with the strengthening Polar Vortex likely to switch to a three-wave model (with an upper ridge anchored to the Rockies through topographical locking) deeper depressions push east across the far North Atlantic and with high-pressure over central Europe and the Med a stronger more south-westerly airstream is certain to develop over Britain bringing not just wet to most of the country but also above-average temperatures. Even then, temperatures are not likely to be much above normal for late-October and November as the patch of cool NE Atlantic water extends to west of Spain;- tropical maritime air-masses would have to cross this before reaching Britain and these will arrive with a slightly lower temperature than they otherwise would as a result.

All sounding very familiar and leading to another snow less winter down south no doubt. Your autumn/winter forecasts seem more accurate than your summer ones.

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