autumn Autumn 2016

[Summer Sun]

Aboyne, Aberdeenshire, was the UK cold spot overnight at 0.9c

[Nick L]

Last night was the most comfortable one for sleeping probably since spring, gorgeous!

[Wildswimmer Pete]

Last night's min was 8.7C.  Maritime location (Mersey estuary), semi-rural, minor UHI

[I remember Atlantic 252]

reckon GFS is way off, with high pressure, expecting ECM/UKMO, to be right, with Autumn proper arriving Thursday, hope not though

[markyo]

For once this Autumn is squaring up to be a lot better than the previous few,more northern blocking coming out on more runs,maybe a start of a pattern,fingers crossed then!

[Methuselah]

35 minutes ago, markyo said:

For once this Autumn is squaring up to be a lot better than the previous few,more northern blocking coming out on more runs,maybe a start of a pattern,fingers crossed then!

Oh no! Does that mean we have some nasty, breezy, damp days of 7C to look forward to? I'd rather save the HLBs for winter proper.

[markyo]

58 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh no! Does that mean we have some nasty, breezy, damp days of 7C to look forward to? I'd rather save the HLBs for winter proper.

Probably the odd one! We shall see,just so hoping for a proper Autumn,bit of everything,not mild crap which we've had for way to long,the up coming season is in my opinion the best,natures colours at their finest......depending on the flipping weather though! Can live in hope

[stainesbloke]

31 minutes ago, markyo said:

Probably the odd one! We shall see,just so hoping for a proper Autumn,bit of everything,not mild crap which we've had for way to long,the up coming season is in my opinion the best,natures colours at their finest......depending on the flipping weather though! Can live in hope

Agree, a nice mix of weather types would be good, with less Atlantic low after low than in recent years. The indications of more blocking this autumn could be good in that we might see some decent anticyclonic spells with sun and fog/frost, very nice if so. Am completely over wind, that's for sure, had way too much of that in recent years.

Edited September 24, 2016 by stainesbloke

[cheese]

Mild days and cool nights, with not much rain and plenty of sun = best colours. A big Atlantic low will just blow the leaves off, and rain is rubbish. 

[Matthew.]

Looking at the CET data with Septembers hitting 16c and above does not mix with cold winters. All the 16's had a milder than average winter to follow. Will this year change the mould?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Looking at the CET data with Septembers hitting 16c and above does not mix with cold winters. All the 16's had a milder than average winter to follow. Will this year change the mould?

Nope

[Ravelin]

5 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Nope

Is that the seasons first "Winter's over" post? 

[markyo]

Looking good for proper Autumn weather this week,no 2 days the same,changeable to say the least. Lovely

[daz_4]

Unfortunately, the weather from summer 2015 has returned here in lighter, autumn version but this does not bode well for the coming winter. High pressure and southern winds all over again. Not good for folks who are already in extreme drought.

[MP-R]

Umm...

[sundog]

The coldest max of the season so far here today,14.1c. Its a nice clear and chilly evening here 8.6c currently after a day of sunshine and some heavy showers. i wish more sept days were like this.

 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

We dipped to 8.2c in Rugby. Nothing special, but the trend's heading the right way

[Turnedoutniceagain]

BTW, with 3 months to go until Christmas, the holly berries in my garden have finally turned red.

[Summer Sun]

 

[NorthYorksWeather]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Good, get this pattern out of the way now whilst its of no real importance (snow-wise).

Few spots down to 3/4c this morning, still no sign of a frost yet!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

 

[Summer Sun]

Weather online outlooks for October, November, and December
 

Quote

 

Valid from 01/10 to 28/10 2016

Mixed start

Issued: Sunday 25th September 2016
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

High pressure dominates, but a mixed month overall

October is expected to be dominated by high pressure. However, that does not mean that the month is going to be dry throughout. There will be spells of more unsettled weather, especially at the begging of the month and after mid month too. Things more settled in the midle of the month and again towards the month end.

*1/10/16 - 7/10/16*

An unsettled start to October. Low pressure brings wind and rain for many. The rain could be heavy at times, with gales in places. Feeling mild overall.

*8/10/16 - 14/10/16*

Hints of conditions beginning to settled down during this period. High pressure may build bringing drier weather and some reasonable spells of sunshine for most. Overnight fog could occur as could some local ground frosts.

*15/10/16 - 21/10/16*

Probably staying settled at first but then a tendency for more unsettled weather to arrive. This is focussed on Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England but it may spread to other areas too. Watch for heavy periods of rain and gales. Temperatures close to average.

*22/10/16 - 31/10/16*

Starting unsettled for the final week of the month. Further periods of rain and strong winds. It may be that by the end of the month higher pressure returns. This brings drier weather, but also the risk of some overnight fog and frost. Some days may be rather dull and drizzly as the fog lifts.

Pressure stays high

More unsettled December

Issued: Sunday 25th September 2016
Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Garry Nicholson

*November*

High pressure is a feature of forecasting models again through November. Note that confidence is low due to activity in the tropics at the time of writing.
High pressure would be bringing a drier month than average for many parts of the UK and Ireland. Days could be sunny although overnight frost and fog are likely to be a feature, not clearing from some places by day. However, for most it should be staying dry and bright. Uncertainty over temperatures. At the present time they are expected to be closer to normal although significantly cooler on foggier days. Turning more unsettled towards the end of the month and a general trend for northern Scotland to be more unsettled throughout.

*December*

Perhaps a more unsettled start to December for many. With a general west to southwest flow it is likely to be mild. Hints of pressure building into the middle of the month again, before falling significantly by the final stages of the month leading to windier, wetter weather. There will be gales at times too.

 

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&REPORT=seasonaloutlook&DAY=20160925

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&REPORT=205&FILE=tma&DAY=20160926

[weirpig]

well those two forecasts above are different one goes for mild wet December the other below average temperatures    think ill wait till December 

[markyo]

Fantastic day weatherwise for working,over 300 miles 6 calls,not sweating once,lovely refreshing rain to cool you off coming off site,car lovely and cool. Can easily stand 5 months of this!...Many i know hate it,sorry for the really selfish statement,must be vile after this August and early September. Fingers crossed for less Atlantic influence but i fear that's a for-lone hope.

[Matthew.]

There's a lot of anomalous warmth out there so I can't see a cold winter turning up at the moment just from my own perspective and pattern watching. October looks warmish to start. Really need a volcanic eruption to cool things down in the northern hemisphere this Autumn! A SSW in November could change things though but looking a low ish possibility. I'm going for a 5.8 December, 5.0 January, 6.0 February interesting weather watching! More seasonal than last year.

Edited September 26, 2016 by Matthew Wilson