Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

[Mesoscale]

1 minute ago, Essex Easterly said:

For hinting at a comparison and potential for development or playing down the chances earlier? I'm not sure which one lol

For the potential for development, they have that sort of roll cloud look about them. 

[William Grimsley]

1 minute ago, Wivenswold said:

I like your youthful exuberance but it's that type of comment that leads to disappointment. There won't "definitely" be thunderstorms over the SE, there's a risk. 

The UK is not an ideal location for storms but they do occur from time to time. But every time a risk is forecast we then have days of pointless complaining that people didn't see lightning and that the weather here is disappointing. It's not, it's just UK weather doing what it does. 

Yes, I know that, but I highly doubt there won't be any thunderstorms tonight over SE England.

[weatherobsuk]

The cold-front currently passing overhead here, not doing much but the front is noticeable as a deep-convective line of CU clouds darkens the daylight beneath it, to my east and west is clear skies.

[Windblade]

2 hours ago, Harry said:

Very true, however I'm basing my expectations on a median point of all the various models (which on closer inspection diverge quite significantly). Some initiate storms very early and then repeatedly through the night, others develop very isolated cells in the night followed by an MCS around 06z-07z onwards, while others are keen to keep the bulk of the storm activity (take MetO rainfall projections as an example) south of line say from Brighton to Rochester.

Exciting period coming up, but as should be expected the models are struggling with the detail (albeit the broader consensus is about there)

Fair enough my friend, very valid points. Just getting quite excited by the possibility of proper storms at last and even supercell formations! Lets keep an eye on the skies and forecasts and fingers crossed we get something.

[Mapantz]

Here's my effort..

[Guest]

People with more knowledge than me (ie, everyone), is it worth basing myself around the SE Mids tonight and waiting to see what arrives from the south? Seriously thinking about chasing tonight and I'm a stones throw from the M1 south

[Wivenswold]

5 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Yes, I know that, but I highly doubt there won't be any thunderstorms tonight over SE England.

I'm in the sweet spot for tonight and I remain skeptical.  

[Hodgheg]

16 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

I have some nice comparisons here,

So this was July 3rd 2015, that night we had one of the best thunderstorms I have ever seen in the UK.



And here is todays sky...



I might be eating my words later........ 

This came to mind too. It was a miserable grey day all day, around 7pm the clouds did start to lift and then  accas started streaming up from the south. It was a late event, nothing popped until about 11pm if i remember correctly.

[Windblade]

44 minutes ago, titchjuicy said:

Question from a newbie regarding Central London. Does the urban heat island effect have the opposite effect in these kind of situations than it does in the winter?

Whereas in the winter the slightly higher temps can have an effect on snowfall; at times like these can it encourage more intense storms?

 

Thanks

Hi there and welcome. Interesting question you raised and I must admit I've never given the scenario much thought until now. If I were to make an educated guess I would say every bit of heat counts when building storms but also remember there are a lot of storms that develop elsewhere and some travel over london. Does the added heat from a busy city help? I would have to say it cant hurt. I'd be interested to hear other peoples thoughts on this who may have a better insight in such things than myself.

[MrNooo]

Its' been a miserable totally overcast day here all day, slight convection going on under the top cover and a few very dark areas/bases but that's it. Not expecting anything ce soir but good luck to those further East.

[Allezwasps.]

Brittany and Normandy lighting up nicely , northern Spain getting a hammering also .

[Wet'n'Dry]

18 minutes ago, Stephen James said:

People with more knowledge than me (ie, everyone), is it worth basing myself around the SE Mids tonight and waiting to see what arrives from the south? Seriously thinking about chasing tonight and I'm a stones throw from the M1 south

In the interest of not blowing too much money on fuel I would be heading towards Kings Lynn. Going due South might not produce anything.

Basically we're currently looking at a slice drawn between the IOW to the NE and eastwards anywhere along that line.

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

never mind the storms.. Anyone got the Portugal Hungry game on wow!

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Wet'n'Dry said:

In the interest of not blowing too much money on fuel I would be heading towards Kings Lynn. Going due South might not produce anything.

Basically we're currently looking at a slice drawn between the IOW to the NE and eastwards anywhere along that line.

 

Cheers. Yes that would be a good starting place  Fuel's not a problem as I get 70mpg on the faster routes (only a little 1.2l!). Just a case of finding a good viewpoint to the south and east. 

[stainesbloke]

4 minutes ago, Surrey said:

never mind the storms.. Anyone got the Portugal Hungry game on wow!

Come on Hungary!!

[MR CB]

Plenty of various varieties of Altocumulus spewing up from the south west - weather is definitely changing. Had plenty of low cloud and mist earlier, so much better now with warm and very humid conditions.

[Windblade]

Just checked the sky a few mins ago as I was eating (my curtains in my bedroom are drawn shut all day due to me being photosensitive and the daily migraines that brings which can complicate matters while sky watching in this hobby!) and even as I ate ac started to build up out of nowhere. Theres a nice shelf cloud to my west also.

Edited June 22, 2016 by Windblade

[andymusic]

seems to shifting at a fair rate of knots this one - not like recent events

[StormChaseUK]

Sferics are further west on current lightning map, in a line from Torquay down to Guernsey across.

[Wet'n'Dry]

3 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Just checked the sky a few mins ago as I was eating (my curtains in my bedroom are drawn shut all day due to me being photosensitive and the daily migraines that brings which can complicate matters while sky watching in this hobby!) and even as I ate ac started to build up out of nowhere. Theres a nice shelf cloud to my west also.

It certainly looks very moody out there. Low level very dark Cumulous and signs of Mammatus developing here from nothing!!

[Summer Sun]

 

[Hodgheg]

Thats an interesting cell west of guernsey

[Windblade]

Yep, storms already over the channel and seem to be tracking this way, although they are coming from north western france heading north eastwards. I may have misread the forecast but I thought storms would come from north east france and belgium and track northwestwards towards the uk?

 

[Wet'n'Dry]

Just now, Windblade said:

 I may have misread the forecast but I thought storms would come from north east france and belgium and track northwestwards towards the uk?

 

The trend is north easterly so from north east France and Belgium they would end up in Holland

[Windblade]

3 hours ago, Wet'n'Dry said:

It certainly looks very moody out there. Low level very dark Cumulous and signs of Mammatus developing here from nothing!!

Love Mammatus! Only ever seen them in real life twice. One was the year before last, right over my garden in the evening, just on the trailing edge of a huge and powerful storm that came in from the north and produced pink and orange fork lightning and also what looked like to me a wedge funnel cloud. I'll try and find the pics.

 

The fact you've got Mammatus is a very, very good sign as they normally precede a severe storm. Good luck mate, hope you see something!

 

Edit - pictures found and attached.

Edited June 22, 2016 by Windblade