Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

[Nick L]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Buy a Tesla, make your own conductor to go on the roof, and hopefully some lightning will charge the batteries!  

Just make sure you're not going 88mph*

*Apologies if you don't get the reference

[Greeny]

16 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

I agree with everyone here, like I've said recently, I don't want to start driving over about 40 miles from home for thunderstorms even if they are going to be incredibly severe, as you say money isn't exactly plentiful for fuel at my age either...

It's incredibly difficult to work out whether to chase or not, but if you don't and you miss something, you kick yourself for not going and the only negative really of chasing and not seeing anything is wasting fuel but you still manage to get out an explore the countryside!

The funny thing is I have gone off to intercept a storm say 15 miles away and miss it and decide to go back thinking ah well then suddenly one heads towards me back at home. Scenarios like that have happened more than once, things change all the time. One minute it looks like things are slowly fading, a few minutes later and a few miles and it all looks promising again. Its amazing how the look of cells change from a few minutes to the next. Since I have chased storms I've seen more interesting things and features for doing it and not just waiting for them to come to me (like when I was a kid). There is more than just seeing more storms when chasing imo and from my experience .

Edited June 13, 2016 by Greeny

[Greeny]

8 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Just make sure you're not going 88mph*

*Apologies if you don't get the reference

I talked about that only just today "1.21 gigawatts!"

[Darren Bown]

Morning. The front seems to have lodged itself across northern England this morning, I would expect as per the MetOffice warning that the area south of it would see the best chance of storms today.

[Windblade]

So, yesterday was a bust although getting out the car at 3:30pm it looked very dark to the west which came over and we had a huge downpour, big drops. To be honest I'm surprised it didn't trigger a spark or two. We had another downpour later on in the evening before it got dark but no electrical activity or thunder. 

 

Driving to work today the temp was showing 18 degrees and I had light drizzle all the way that seems to have stopped now and its getting brighter. In brixton again today.

 

EDIT - As I type the sun has popped out and clouds already bubbling up.

Edited June 14, 2016 by Windblade

[William Grimsley]

Today and especially tomorrow looking very tasty for this area, not seen chance like this for a very long time!

Edited June 14, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Tim Bland]

This is the area that the met office expect to see storms today

Edited June 14, 2016 by Tim Bland

[BrickFielder]

Similar to yesterday with low level convergence zones. Particularly north midlands to east Anglia but also Exeter to Suffolk.

Lightning wizard charts show a risk of spouts (very weak dust devil type funnels), but I am not sure updraft strengths will be strong enough.

Very slack wind flow so storms could be very slow moving with a risk of localized flooding.

Cloud tops may not be quite as high as recent days, but we might see more of a break in the clouds in places, so its swings and roundabouts.

Key area for me is east Anglia and Lincolnshire.

[Greeny]

All to play for, for our area. messy clouds as expected but breaks in the clouds are making this morning a sunnier and nicer one. I was working so I couldn't follow the low dark bases anywhere (a base like in the picture was over Norwich) yesterday but a funnel was spotted near Acle in Norfolk.

[Nick F]

Pretty much agree with what Brick mentions above, bit more of a head start with insolation here in London this morning compared to yesterday, though sunny spells are brief -so modest surface heating at best today with a lot of cloud for my liking. Still - should be some storms around, and N Wales, N Midlands to Lincs /Norfolk could be prime spot for funnels or even brief/weak tornadoes due to convergence between E/NE and SW winds here.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2016-06-14 08:53:44

Valid: 14/06/2016 06z 15/06/2016 06z

CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST TUES 14TH-JUNE-2016

Synopsis

Upper low that has been to the west of the UK over recent days finally shifts across the UK by the end of Tuesday. At the surface, area of low pressure centred over N Wales this morning will shift slowly east to be centred off the north Norfolk coast by midnight. A showery circulation around this low will cover England and Wales, with increased surface heating triggering scattered thunderstorms.

... ENGLAND, WALES and EIRE ...

Airmass covering UK will be cooler than recent days, but still moisture rich with dew points of 12-14C typical. Cloud breaks should allow modest surface heating of the moist surface airmass to yield 300-600 j/kg CAPE beneath increasingly steep lapse rates as cooler air edges in aloft with arrival of upper low from the west. As a result, scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms will develop. Like recent days, unidirectional winds from the surface to upper levels and little increase aloft means weak vertical shear with little organisation of storms likely.

However, storms will likely be slow-moving across central, northern and eastern parts of England where winds are weak aloft - so have highlighted a MARGINAL risk for flash-flooding here. Additionally, models indicate a zone of winds convergence from N Wales to Norfolk this afternoon between E/NE winds to the N and SW winds to the south - which may allow storms to train along this zone increasing risk of localised flooding  ... Also weak winds aloft, fairly low LCLs (Lifted Condensation Level) around 600-800m and surface convergence may allow funnel clouds or even a few brief/weak tornadoes to develop in the Marginal risk area. Storms will move through quicker in the south - with faster mid-level steering winds. 

Issued by: Nick Finnis

[Staffordshire]

Been away all weekend and haven't got the time to read back? Were there any monsters about sat or sun?

[William Grimsley]

Interesting, thought it was looking good for this area, obviously not.

[Greeny]

Torro has a forecast..

http://www.torro.org.uk/forecast.php

[lassie23]

Had heavy showers here since 8.30 in the morning and more through last night.

[Mapantz]

It looks like the warnings have been updated by the Met Office since... They've added in a separate warning for some southern coastal counties.

[William Grimsley]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

It looks like the warnings have been updated by the Met Office since... They've added in a separate warning for some southern coastal counties.

Yes, I saw that just a bit too far west here, but certainly not far enough to not chase. XD

Actually, re-thinking that actually it might be.

Edited June 14, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Windblade]

Just had a brief shower here. Was walking and it came out of nowhere. No thunder and lightning around so sheltered under a tree until it had calmed down. Its stopped now. Sun keeps breaking through the clouds briefly every now and then.

Edited June 14, 2016 by Windblade

[William Grimsley]

We're off! Looking WSW!

[andymusic]

EXPLODING over Mid Wales & into the West Midlands

Edited June 14, 2016 by andymusic

[Windblade]

Another shower just popped out of nowhere.

[Windblade]

2 hours ago, Greeny said:

All to play for, for our area. messy clouds as expected but breaks in the clouds are making this morning a sunnier and nicer one. I was working so I couldn't follow the low dark bases anywhere (a base like in the picture was over Norwich) yesterday but a funnel was spotted near Acle in Norfolk.

I would've loved to have seen that. I have a particular interest in funnel clouds and tornado's (although I don't like violent ones where people get hurt or lose property etc, that's really awful). I find them fascinating and awe inspiring.

Edited June 14, 2016 by Windblade

[Costa Del Fal]

Number of intense cells just to my west now.

[Windblade]

Stopped for a while and just now its started again, very heavy torrential rain, once again came very suddenly. Dry one minute, torrential the next. Feels a lot cooler today and far less humid. Not sure we're going to see anything today in these parts, but we'll see.

Edited June 14, 2016 by Windblade

[Windblade]

Looking at the radar just now it appears wales got hit and the border of north london and south essex also got strikes. Good luck to people in those areas - hope you see/saw something.

Edited June 14, 2016 by Windblade

[Chris.R]

Sun is out and feels  promising.