Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

[Pursuer of Storms]

37 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

@Pursuer of Storms, that's what I'd call just a bit of cloud sticking out of the bottom of the cloud.

Wish I had done a little video of it now. It does seem quite smooth around the bottom in the second and third pics.  Not saying I don't believe you though! You and the other folks know more about these than I do. 

Sorry if it seems like a silly ask. It's just not often that I see something like this. Plus, I've always wanted to get shots or video of a funnel cloud/tornado, so my wishful thinking probably made me think I had got something that wasn't there. 

Edited July 3, 2016 by Pursuer of Storms

[Spikecollie]

2 hours ago, Pursuer of Storms said:

Wish I had done a little video of it now. It does seem quite smooth around the bottom in the second and third pics.  Not saying I don't believe you though! You and the other folks know more about these than I do. 

Sorry if it seems like a silly ask. It's just not often that I see something like this. Plus, I've always wanted to get shots or video of a funnel cloud/tornado, so my wishful thinking probably made me think I had got something that wasn't there. 

Looks funnel-like to me - but I'm no expert. You don't have to have a CB to have a funnel. Do you?

William's comment just had to make me think of "clingons"!

[Pursuer of Storms]

18 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

Looks funnel-like to me - but I'm no expert. You don't have to have a CB to have a funnel. Do you?

William's comment just had to make me think of "clingons"!

I don't think so, although I can't say I've ever seen any in pictures or videos in the past that have formed from such small clouds, although there was a lot of convection building at the time. Will be interesting to see what the others say. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

3 hours ago, Pursuer of Storms said:

Hi everyone, I was looking towards the south west end of Milton Keynes around 1pm today when I spotted what looked like a funnel cloud. Lots of cumulus clouds of various shapes and sizes in the sky at the time but this was coming from one of the smaller pieces. It was visible for a couple of minutes before dissipating. I can't say I saw any rotation while taking shots of but when it was dissipating it did look as if it had been spinning. 

These are the best shots I got of it. What do you guys think? 

 

Seems like a funnel to me too, various other examples online!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

5 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Seems like a funnel to me too, various other examples online!

Looks like a very cheeky piece of scud to me. If the photos were taken over a period of 10 or more seconds I would definately say scud - that very bottom bit which curves doesn't evolve as it would if there were rotation.

Also a cumulus cloud of that size wouldn't support the mechanics to produce a funnel, you would need at least a primitive updraught / downdraught system to get things moving.

I've been fooled by scud a few times before - sometimes it really does mimic the real thing so well.

[Pursuer of Storms]

5 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Looks like a very cheeky piece of scud to me. If the photos were taken over a period of 10 or more seconds I would definately say scud - that very bottom bit which curves doesn't evolve as it would if there were rotation.

Also a cumulus cloud of that size wouldn't support the mechanics to produce a funnel, you would need at least a primitive updraught / downdraught system to get things moving.

I've been fooled by scud a few times before - sometimes it really does mimic the real thing so well.

Ah I see! It was that smooth curved bit at the bottom that made me think it might have been a funnel but funnily enough I saw something similar a few years back which also turned out to be a scud. Thank you for the explanation! I'll get the real deal one day (hopefully)! 

Edited July 4, 2016 by Pursuer of Storms

[William Grimsley]

@Ben Sainsbury, that's not a funnel cloud either, as @Flash bang flash bang etc says, it's just some scud cloud.

[Greeny]

3 hours ago, William Grimsley said:

@Ben Sainsbury, that's not a funnel cloud either, as @Flash bang flash bang etc says, it's just some scud cloud.

The day I saw my first funnel from Peterborough a few years ago, on the way back I caught some what looked to be spiralling air through some residual cloud fairly low down. I've only ever seen that once and there wasnt any Cbs around at that time and it was pretty sunny too. The atmosphere seemed to be ripe for that so who knows, can't really confirm unless its caught on video really.

Back to today, appreciate we're under a ridge today with no convective outlooks but just pointing out that mid west builds up some CAPE throughout the day with an upper trough arriving early evening. Mid level capping will probably inhibit any CAPE that is present.

Midlands coverage and some more EA. MLCAPE slowing moving off to the east throughout the evening and night.

Edited July 4, 2016 by Greeny

[Windblade]

22 hours ago, Pursuer of Storms said:

Hi everyone, I was looking towards the south west end of Milton Keynes around 1pm today when I spotted what looked like a funnel cloud. Lots of cumulus clouds of various shapes and sizes in the sky at the time but this was coming from one of the smaller pieces. It was visible for a couple of minutes before dissipating. I can't say I saw any rotation while taking shots of but when it was dissipating it did look as if it had been spinning. 

These are the best shots I got of it. What do you guys think? 

 

I always thought you needed a storm with strong updraft and downdrafts to create a funnel and didn't think they formed outside of that? Could this be a gustfunnel (gustnado that didn't touch down)? Even then I would have thought you needed a storm for that. I admit it does look too dense to be scud, but it could just be the picture or the light that makes it appear like that (in the same way some storm clouds look a lot darker when the sun is shining directly at them from infront).

Edited July 4, 2016 by Windblade

[Windblade]

Ok so I tried editing the separate pictures from saturday to make a panorama but it doesn't look right unfortunately. Still, I noticed some cirrus this morning which has often proved right in warning severe weather is on its way in the next 24-48 hours...

 

Edited July 4, 2016 by Windblade

[Greeny]

http://www.estofex.org/

Estofex on board with the lowest of risks.

Skew-t for Norwich showing weakening of the cap into the evening. 00Z has the best outlook although it is meagre but in my experience can be enough. MLCAPE could be tapped into by nocturnal cooling. PW values pretty high too.

[reef]

Just had a massive clap of thunder and power cut here. Its rather dark but the rain wasn't actually that heavy.

Still, its the first 'direct hit' of the year so far.

[Greeny]

14 minutes ago, reef said:

Just had a massive clap of thunder and power cut here. Its rather dark but the rain wasn't actually that heavy.

Still, its the first 'direct hit' of the year so far.

YES! Nice!

[Azazel]

For today:

[Dami]

I've been looking and had hints about Thursday night and maybe a few flashes.

\o.

[Martin Auld]

4 hours ago, Azazel said:

For today:

Well it's nice to be in the red box but I'm not getting my hopes up

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

It's a bit quiet around these parts... When will we see some more thunder?

[MrNooo]

Pretty humid around here today, a couple of very small showers earlier this morn but total cloud cover here with convection occurring under the blanket.

[Windblade]

Dammit, the cirrus let me down! No activity here all week. We've had a few small spots of rain early on some mornings on what has otherwise been an extremely sunny and very hot week. Just no convergence to take advantage of the heat. Next week from midweek onwards is looking more interesting so we'll see how things develop.

Edited July 7, 2016 by Windblade

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

4 hours ago, Windblade said:

Dammit, the cirrus let me down! No activity here all week. We've had a few small spots of rain early on some mornings on what has otherwise been an extremely sunny and very hot week. Just no convergence to take advantage of the heat. Next week from midweek onwards is looking more interesting so we'll see how things develop.

Good to see something on the (proverbial) horizon!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

A good Thursday or Friday night plume would be perfect :-)

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

A good Thursday or Friday night plume would be perfect :-)

Think it's highly unlikely tonight, although it is pretty warm and humid feeling. 

[Bolt from the Blue]

GFS hinting at some potential next weekend:

[Vestan]

I have seen an article stating that there was a Spanish Plume due next week that would last for 6 weeks. However, there were 2 problems with the article:

1. It was on the Daily Express website

2. It was written by Nathan Rao

[Supacell]

2 hours ago, Vestan said:

I have seen an article stating that there was a Spanish Plume due next week that would last for 6 weeks. However, there were 2 problems with the article:

1. It was on the Daily Express website

2. It was written by Nathan Rao

3. There is no support whatsoever for this on any long term models.

Although your point 1 is sufficient enough to disregard it