Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards

[MP-R]

2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

That is exactly what some of the models are hinting at too. For Example: NetWx Model

 

Liking it! Fingers crossed.

[Chris K]

Perhaps the 06z fax charts from the Met Office are also worth mentioning, as it shows a surface trough feature moving roughly SE-->NW during today.

This may help trigger a higher number of showers when compared to yesterday, but still quite scattered in nature in my opinion.

Edited June 6, 2016 by Chris K

[weather09]

12 minutes ago, Chris K said:

...but still quite scattered in nature in my opinion.

And this is what is being forecast: scattered showers/storms. Only difference is a slightly heightened risk given reasons stated.

Some appear to have a hard time reading. 

Edited June 6, 2016 by weather09

[pad199207]

very interesting SE Ireland now

[StormChaseUK]

A lot more cloud around today, compared to yesterday.

[SteveB]

19 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Liking it! Fingers crossed.

Saw a chart William posted yesterday (think it was Net-Weather new one) which showed a line of showers running right through Weston & surrounding areas, looks to tie in with that chart.

Fingers crossed it all pans out.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

@Ben Sainsbury

Sorry for tag Ben no idea why it keeps doing it, I was on your profile then when I come off it does it???

 

 

I know the last few days may have been a little frustrating for people wanting storms, seeing the highlighted areas huge amounts of Cape and some energy up there, all for it not to happen and another day goes by.

That's the nature of this beast, it's allusive and one of the most hardest things to forcast for our little island because so many diffrent factors have to come in. (along side dare I say it, snow) 

On mainland Europe and the states for example it's much easier to forcast storms (although still difficult) and the conditions and general geographicall features are far better.. 

Nevertheless, the UK gets some great storms and we do sometimes get spoilt (if you like storms) 

Back to real-time and the conditions do actually improve tomorrow for storms. I been saying Tuesday always had higher chances and the reason being is because these last few days we have had high pressure in charge. We have had to rely on convergence zones and natural geographical (mountains large hills)  lift to fire storms.

However, tomorrow introduces some lower pressure as a front swings in from the south West. Now, this will aid in getting that spark for storms (not saying it will happen) but it's more fuel for the fire.

There is one slight issue though (this is of course England and nothing is straight forward, especially our weather) and that is, it could introduce more in the way of cloud for more western areas.

We shall see. Good luck everyone who is looking for a storm, many more chances hopefully this summer

Cheers! 

 

 

[Chris K]

9 minutes ago, weather09 said:

And this is what is being forecast: scattered showers/storms. Only difference is a slightly heightened risk given reasons stated.

Some appear to have a hard time reading. 

I am not sure if the part in bold was a comment towards me, but I was aware forecasts have already mentioned the scattered nature of storms when/if they develop. I added it to my post to re-iterate this, so that the feature shown on the fax charts was not taken at face value - i.e. not everyone will see something along it.

Edited June 6, 2016 by Chris K

[MP-R]

The sky to the west if beginning to fill up with altcu-cas turkey towers already. A good sign of the instability in the atmosphere for sure.

[Chris.R]

 22.4°C!  1.5°C warmer than yesterday at this time. 

[StormChaseUK]

Not bad development for 10.30am

[Chris.R]

 Early warnings out for tomorrow from the Met-office. 

[weather09]

19 minutes ago, Chris K said:

I am not sure if the part in bold was a comment towards me, but I was aware forecasts have already mentioned the scattered nature of storms when/if they develop. I added it to my post to re-iterate this, so that the feature shown on the fax charts was not taken at face value - i.e. not everyone will see something along it.

No, wasn't directed at you.  But this is a recurring theme every year: some being critical of one's views or forecasts without accurately capturing what has actually been said, and not even providing reasoning of their own to form a counter argument if they don't agree with that view or forecast.  One can say there looks to be a somewhat heightened risk of storms in relation to the previous day, and some will read that as 'showers and storms very likely and numerous', then say the forecast was 'hyped up' when very little happens.  

[Ben Sainsbury]

3 minutes ago, weather09 said:

No, wasn't directed at you.  But this is a recurring theme every year: some being critical of one's views or forecasts without accurately capturing what has actually been said, and not even providing reasoning of their own to form a counter argument if they don't agree with that view or forecast.  One can say there looks to be a somewhat heightened risk of storms in relation to the previous day, and some will read that as 'showers and storms very likely and numerous', then say the forecast was 'hyped up' when very little happens.  

And I accept that this is where my confusion comes into place. But then again this will be something that will always happen, as everyone has different perspectives on a forecast etc. Apologies.

[Windblade]

1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

 Already 21.3°C. Minimum last night was just 15.3°C, while the maximum yesterday was 28.0°C. Current trends would suggest that I could beat that today. 

 So I missed an electrified cell by 7 miles yesterday, knowing my luck it will be 3 miles today lol. At least I would be able to hear the thunder in that case. 

Even hearing the thunder in the distance is nice. I'd even settle for that right now!

[Ben Sainsbury]

When combining the current Sea Pressure Charts and Convergence Zone, I have drew on the radar where these currently exist. Great correlation currently.

(Black = Trough, Green = Convergence)

[Gordon Webb]

Weather warning for tomorrow seems more widespread than i was expecting and more now issued for scotland frosty said in model thread that focus was NW are the met been overly cautious or is the potential there in all warnings areas,  only asking as i had planned to do something tomorrow but will change if the risk of storms is there 

[Nick L]

3 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

Weather warning for tomorrow seems more widespread than i was expecting and more now issued for scotland frosty said in model thread that focus was NW are the met been overly cautious or is the potential there in all warnings areas,  only asking as i had planned to do something tomorrow but will change if the risk of storms is there 

Simply covering the potential rather than suggesting there will be widespread storms. Goes along nicely with W09's point above in that many people on here misinterpret the warnings etc. and presume widespread storms are likely. Some areas will get heavy downpours, but most will stay dry.

Edited June 6, 2016 by Nick L

[Chris K]

27 minutes ago, weather09 said:

No, wasn't directed at you.  But this is a recurring theme every year: some being critical of one's views or forecasts without accurately capturing what has actually been said, and not even providing reasoning of their own to form a counter argument if they don't agree with that view or forecast.  One can say there looks to be a somewhat heightened risk of storms in relation to the previous day, and some will read that as 'showers and storms very likely and numerous', then say the forecast was 'hyped up' when very little happens.  

Thanks W09 - I didn't mean for my post to sound like I was accusing! I agree with you fully.

[Gordon Webb]

6 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Simply covering the potential rather than suggesting there will be widespread storms. Goes along nicely with W09's point above in that many people on here misinterpret the warnings etc. and presume widespread storms are likely. Some areas will get heavy downpours, but most will stay dry.

Thats what i thought thanks

 

[alexisj9]

There Cas clouds here heading west, don't know if they'll develop further or disappear mind. 

[Love Snow]

Some towers gone up north of Leeds 

[A.J]

Similar plans to yesterday me thinks....out and about but I'll start later, as modelling infers anything that does develop IMBY will be around teatime onwards.....so, a run down to the salisbury area on the back roads aiming to get there for about 6pm, reassess, check radar, then I reckon a mooch across to the Wells area, my thinking being the topography is spot on for a sea breeze/land breeze convergence zone....Hoping to be in the Wells area for around 7-8pm, and then loiter in that area until sundown, where hopefully there might be good photo opportunities both cloud and lightning from any discrete cells that have fired...probably about 150 miles of travelling, and if things don't pan out (like yesterday) then at least I've had a nice afternoon/evening out in the country 

[Nick F]

After the frustration of the last few days of isolated potential, I think Tuesday may yield more widespread potential of seeing a storm, and storms that maybe more productive in terms of hail and lightning. 

Tuesday sees more upper forcing arrive from the Atlantic as a trough in the mid to upper flow moves NE. 

The trough shows nicely as a SE-NW strip of enhanced vorticity on 500mb level, PVA ahead of this creating forced ascent aloft.

This upper forcing combined with surface convergence should more widely erode the cap holding a 'loaded gun'of quite high CAPE values as richer moisture returns from near continent and is heated in the sun.

Could be isolated large hail in the stronger storms given large CAPE values indicated. High pressure builds back in at the surface across the south on Wednesday, so storm potential perhaps reducing here.

 

 

[Frosty hollows]

Really warm from the off this morning and strong sunshine and clear skies will aid diurnal heating.Already 24 C in my garden, but humidity only 40% and a slight breeze making it really plesant to work in.

Storms are capricious in nature and exact forecasting is nigh on impossible. We can only look at data and models and even use a little gut instinct tp predict with so many variables involved. It seems a bit unfair to get upset if storms are forecast, but don't materialise (see also snow!). It's nearly always down to the day and nowcasting, which is, of course, frustrating for chasers.Basically the forecast is saying there's a possibility of storms tomorrow. Chances are you'll miss them, but if you do get one it could be potent and flash flooding is a risk where one occurs. So my perspective is one of thinking the atmosphere's looking interesting at the moment and there's potential, and if I see a storm then great! But I know I probably won't!