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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards

A.J

By A.J
in Storms & Severe Weather

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10 Days Away Enthusiast

10 Days Away

Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything even slightly exciting & less Vanilla.
  • Location: Kent
Posted

Looks like the Estofex forecast was spot on.

 

I keep looking longingly at the lightning radar but no sign of it moving westwards.

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Mesoscale Rising Star

Mesoscale

Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
Posted
20 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

My lord if that holds out and crosses the North Sea in tact, we could be in for a rare treat. Beast from the east!! Look at the strike rate on that system over Germany and the Netherlands!! 

One can only hope... but lets be real about this lol

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
6 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

One can only hope... but lets be real about this lol

Don't forget the forecast is for night time, so whatever does come over is likely to be elevated, or an electrified front.

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weather09 Aficionado

weather09

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Location: Birmingham
Posted (edited)

Yep, any convection over eastern England this evening and into early part of Tue will be rooted above the boundary layer, so cool waters not relevant here. The reason for the storms over northern Germany and into Netherlands is simply due to those regions having had a moderately unstable air mass in place this afternoon (thanks to very warm and moist profile), with CAPE being released near to frontal boundary (cold front).  The fact that storms are happening there doesn't mean storms will happen here.  The conditions over the continent are favourable for active storms, not the case here.

But, nonetheless, we will be importing some good moisture in at low-mid level, so there's always the possibility that forcing of this air mass from approaching frontal system will support convection deep enough for lightning. But I say it looks unlikely given the poor profile over here.

Edited by weather09
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 31 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Wed 01 Jun 2016

ISSUED 17:02 UTC Mon 30 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Chris

An area of low pressure over the near continent that has helped to produce widespread thunderstorms across the continent over the last few days will move westwards pushing a plume of humid, unstable mid-level air, over a cooler boundary layer into southeastern Britain during the early morning hours of Tuesday. MUCAPE values of 200-300j/kg will move across the North Sea early on Tuesday along with mid-level lapse rates increasing to 25-27C. This set up combined with advection of upper level postive vorticity around the northern edge of the low should aid in developing deep convection capable of producing lightning, perhaps frequent for a time, in eastern parts of East Anglia. As ever with these mid-level types of set-up there is a large amount of uncertainty in the frequency of the lightning once it arrives into Britain from the east/southeast, and then how far it will spread westwards before becoming an area of rain. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-05-31

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted
1 hour ago, Mesoscale said:

One can only hope... but lets be real about this lol

Still going strong lol. Good thing is, it isn't typically heading NE, but westwards for a change! So we can be hopeful at least haha. 

image.png

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Carl46Wrexham Rising Star

Carl46Wrexham

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
Posted
1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

They all seem to run out of puff as they approach the water :-(

Don't you just know this will reach the East as a mass of rain with perhaps the odd rumble.

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

I'm not sure how much the North Sea will impact these thunderstorms... Probably not as much as the English Channel but I have my doubts. It will be interesting to see what happens.

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Chris Cooper Newbie

Chris Cooper

Posted
  • Location: Southampton, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm, Snow, Wind, Any Extremes :)
  • Location: Southampton, Hampshire
Posted

Just been looking through some of the traffic cams in Arnhem, NL.  Not many views of the sky but plenty of flashing and rain!

 

http://webcam.prvgld.nl/n224.html

You can change the cameras at the top of the page

 

 

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted
11 minutes ago, Chris Cooper said:

Just been looking through some of the traffic cams in Arnhem, NL.  Not many views of the sky but plenty of flashing and rain!

 

http://webcam.prvgld.nl/n224.html

You can change the cameras at the top of the page

 

 

Awesome...that's settled, I'm learning Dutch and moving to the Netherlands :D 

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

I'm not sure how much the North Sea will impact these thunderstorms... Probably not as much as the English Channel but I have my doubts. It will be interesting to see what happens.

There is absolutely no difference between the Channel and the North Sea, except for that the North Sea is larger and colder. In any event, if any instability is elevated then neither would have much effect. Any thunder risk overnight/tomorrow AM will be elevated and therefore the crucial element is whether the airmass that moves in is unstable...at the moment it is touch and go with any lightning likely to be confined to the areas identified on ukcw 

Edited by Harry
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stainesbloke Maestro

stainesbloke

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Posted

Haven't seen this synoptic situation for years, with storms approaching from the E! Potential for something noteworthy or the usual damp squib? I must say it feels a lot warmer today here and more humid than yesterday despite the stronger wind.

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Haven't seen this synoptic situation for years, with storms approaching from the E! Potential for something noteworthy or the usual damp squib? I must say it feels a lot warmer today here and more humid than yesterday despite the stronger wind.

Agreed, not just me then! Even weirder is the fact that it's a northerly wind!

The storms on the continent are so intense Blitzortung can't keep up!!

Edited by Harry
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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Isn't just me that thinks it feels ever so humid, even with a stiff northeasterly. Very unusual indeed. 

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Milocation Community Regular

Milocation

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, William Grimsley said:

I'm not sure how much the North Sea will impact these thunderstorms... Probably not as much as the English Channel but I have my doubts. It will be interesting to see what happens.

will take pics from Colchester for you all

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Carl46Wrexham Rising Star

Carl46Wrexham

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
Posted

Currently 220+ strikes per minute over the western side of the Netherlands.

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10 Days Away Enthusiast

10 Days Away

Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything even slightly exciting & less Vanilla.
  • Location: Kent
Posted
1 minute ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Currently 220+ strikes per minute over the western side of the Netherlands.

It's was 350+ earlier..... mental

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Carl46Wrexham Rising Star

Carl46Wrexham

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, TN26 said:

It's was 350+ earlier..... mental

That is beyond mental 

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