Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards

[alexisj9]

48 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

To be honest I'd prefer some sunshine rather than this awful North Sea grot but a nice storm would be a good second 

It looks like pre rain cloud to me, not sure about storms or cloud clearing.

[Bolt from the Blue]

estofex has included parts of the SE in their forecast

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, AIRMET said:

estofex has included parts of the SE in their forecast

Not holding my breath for that, Mostly wet with a rumble or two if lucky. If it gets here.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

3 minutes ago, AIRMET said:

estofex has included parts of the SE in their forecast

Very loosely but from what I've seen this westerly front business is rather unusual so nobody is entirely sure where the rain band is gonna go exactly, so I'm watching this with interest especially as it's likely to reach the UK at around mid afternoon (providing it keeps its course) and the temps for this area at that time are likely to be about 20 degrees.

so maybe, just maybe...

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Is it westerly or easterly? I was going by the direction it's headed in... That correct?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

38 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Is it westerly or easterly? I was going by the direction it's headed in... That correct?

Coming in from the east and like what has been said above the models Still can't get to grips with what will happen, could be a bit of drizzle, moderate rain or heavy thundry rain 

[Mapantz]

The models have been consistently showing moderate to heavy rain moving in from the East for days now.. 

High pwat and strong PVA suggests that rain could certainly be heavy in places.

[Supacell]

An interesting warning from the Met Office for tonight for Lincolnshire, East Anglia and the SE:

A band of rain, heavy and thundery in places, will spread westwards from the early hours of Tuesday morning. There is the risk that rain will turn torrential in places, with frequent lightning. Winds will also increase, with northerly gales on coasts. Whilst most places will miss the worst of the weather, please be aware of the risk of flash flooding.

A thundery low over the continent will pass close to the southeast of England, bringing a band of rain with it. This is likely to contain thundery elements and locally very intense rain, bringing the risk of 20 mm in the hour and more than 60 mm in a few hours. As it comes west it should weaken, so the greatest risk of disruption is in eastern parts during the early hours

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings

The warnings matrix does show low likelihood but with impacts quite high if it happens. I did not expect much thundery activity from this but they talk of "frequent lightning". NMM does show up to 500j/kg of MLCAPE tonight and tomorrow so it is worth keeping an eye on although frequent lightning is probably overdoing it a bit. Certainly the rainfall is worthy of a warning though.

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, Supacell said:

An interesting warning from the Met Office for tonight for Lincolnshire, East Anglia and the SE:

A band of rain, heavy and thundery in places, will spread westwards from the early hours of Tuesday morning. There is the risk that rain will turn torrential in places, with frequent lightning. Winds will also increase, with northerly gales on coasts. Whilst most places will miss the worst of the weather, please be aware of the risk of flash flooding.

A thundery low over the continent will pass close to the southeast of England, bringing a band of rain with it. This is likely to contain thundery elements and locally very intense rain, bringing the risk of 20 mm in the hour and more than 60 mm in a few hours. As it comes west it should weaken, so the greatest risk of disruption is in eastern parts during the early hours

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings

The warnings matrix does show low likelihood but with impacts quite high if it happens. I did not expect much thundery activity from this but they talk of "frequent lightning". NMM does show up to 500j/kg of MLCAPE tonight and tomorrow so it is worth keeping an eye on although frequent lightning is probably overdoing it a bit. Certainly the rainfall is worthy of a warning though.

If the Met Office is talking like that, now I'm scared lol. I actually don't like thunder when it's with me. Love watching it from a distance though. Hope it gets stuck in the north sea.

[NUT]

Shows as us having a slight chance up here according to estofex would say very unlikely as it well not clear as a bell here but no deep clouds that would indicate any possible showers

[William Grimsley]

Ah, I see the South East getting hit again! Roll on a proper Spanish Plume, we didn't even get one in 2015 but we did in 2014 and it seemed to work here.

[weather09]

Aye, not sure how they're getting to "frequent lightning"- relevant factors not supportive of such activity. Torrential rainfall, yes, as low-level air mass becomes moisture-rich, characterised by relatively high theta-w, from this evening  and into early part of Tues from the east, with occluding front (triple point) providing lift of this low-level moisture to bring a high RF risk.  But concerning lightning, mid-level lapse rates are quite poor, instability therefore is lacking, and there's no support aloft, all suggest deep moist convection (DMC) is unlikely.  Can anticipate shallow convection by lift of moist air mass, which can bring you an isolated spark or two, but, not seeing anything to suggest full-on thunderstorms across regions of interest.  

[Milocation]

THUNDER IS COMING< just got a big headache

[Milocation]

lightning in the channel half way between the storm and ME!

[Milocation]

I hope i get something, even if its just ONE RUMBLE

[MrFunnel]

It's certainly gonna get very interesting tonight as I'm in a field in Lincolnshire camping ⛺ some tall trees nearby too.....Might video stream on Facebook 

[Supacell]

I have produced a full account of my storm chasing around Somerset from the 28th May - with videos:

 

Edited May 30, 2016 by Supacell

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, William Grimsley said:

Ah, I see the South East getting hit again! Roll on a proper Spanish Plume, we didn't even get one in 2015 but we did in 2014 and it seemed to work here.

Haven't had a proper Spanish plume for some years now. Used to be quite a regular occurrence, often bringing a lengthy fine and hot spell to an explosive end. Perhaps we'll see that sometime this summer - I live in hope. Meanwhile, if storms come in from the E then so be it lol. Attached is a Met Office average (1971-2000) days of summer thunder chart for perusal. 

[stevofunnelcl]

Germany have had incredible two days of storms (South / Central Yesterday - North Today)

Storms moving west into Netherlands

Another area of storms in Belgium, so certainly some hope for south-east England

[Dami]

Am not holding my breathe regarding anything thundery here, Bedford wasn't even listed on the warning, lol. The cloud is beginning to break up, and had quite a strong breeze since early this morning.

 

[NUT]

some showers have popped off I think in the highlands I guess

[bobbydog]

wow! monster storms stretching from netherlands through germany

http://en.blitzortung.org/live_dynamic_maps.php?mobile=1

[Martin Auld]

 

 

This is all I've had this year a small cell at 19:00 on Sunday the 22nd of May. Better than nothing I guess

Edited May 30, 2016 by Martin Auld
Forgot to type anything

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

My lord if that holds out and crosses the North Sea in tact, we could be in for a rare treat. Beast from the east!! Look at the strike rate on that system over Germany and the Netherlands!! 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

They all seem to run out of puff as they approach the water :-(