Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards

[Marcus_surfer]

Great isolated thunderstorm that exploded right over Swansea earlier. There was some decent lightning but didn't mange to capture any. Torrential downpours lead to Local flooding in places and some small hail and gusty winds which i managed to capture on camera.

 

Edited May 28, 2016 by Marcus_surfer

[Joey.G]

3 hours ago, Supacell said:

The Quantock cell was a beast

Very frequent flashes of lightning, constant thunder and some nice structure. Only saw 2 cg's but they were powerful.

Awesome day, so glad I stayed another day

 

I was a bit late for the Ilminster cell, only heard its last few rumbles, but got onto the Quantock cell too I was ahead of it for a bit as it was forming just SE of Taunton and got the few snaps below. I followed it to the Quantocks by which time it was overtaking me as it merged with the other cell on the coast. I parked up in the back edge of the storm and watched, lots of ic flashes tho I didnt see any bolts but I reckon I saw the same 2 cgs! The second one was a big surprise as nearly all the rumbling from ic strikes had disappeared away and I was about to move when it hit, the thunder was incredible! When I did move the lanes were blocked in two places, one of which is in the pic below. Wasnt trying that in a ford Ka! There was still a route out tho thankfully. So glad I made the drive today.

The pics are chronological, the first three at 19:02, 19:18 and 19:23 respectively, tho I moved position between 1&2 ofc.

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Tomorrow does look rather uninspiring, but could be the odd shower around.

[lassie23]

6 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Tomorrow does look rather uninspiring, but could be the odd shower around.

Every little helps! Wrong supermarket!

Edited May 29, 2016 by lassie23

[Ben Sainsbury]

11 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Every little helps! Wrong supermarket!

Oh you are a funny one!

[A.J]

convective/storm discussion please

[Milocation]

Just now, ajpoolshark said:

convective/storm discussion please

apologies

[NUT]

Slight chance I suppose today for southern england again but nothing like the mayhem of the last 2 days

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2016053006_201605290045_2_stormforecast.xml

[weather09]

Other than today's low isolated risk, bland outlook for the foreseeable.  Looks like a week Monday before we might see a change to a more favourable upper 500mb pattern, as a ridge tries to build north over southern/central Europe with upper trough approaching from the west. Recent GFS/ECM outputs signalling at this sort of a pattern for a while, so hopefully something to it.

Hope we start to see some proper convective potential soon and none of these marginal days, being as we're heading into summer. 

 

[Chris.R]

Tuesday night into Wednesday looks  interesting for me. 

[NUT]

Was going to say it looked like a nothing day but looks as if it's blown off already in northern scotland

[Stuart]

I hoping there be storms here later on  

[Paul]

Amazing to see the cells springing to life over northern Scotland this morning. 2 hour animation from the radar: (click it to animate). 

[William Grimsley]

Showers already developing across Cornwall, don't think we're out of the woods just yet down here...

[andymusic]

and what do you know West Wales looks like it's about to spring to life again

[StormChaseUK]

Yes could be a few nice surprises today.

[Supacell]

Well I am back home in Derby today so no chances for me today. I would not be surprised if the odd heavy shower or storm popped off across southern England today along any convergence zones. As has been said though, nothing like the last 2 days.

[weather09]

This is what we're hoping for...

 

Good heat and moisture advecting from south at sfc/low-levels to build good instability. Negatively tilted upper trough out west and falling heights releasing moderate CAPE. Backed sfc winds and strong and veering winds with height (SW jet winds aloft - follow the 500mb height contours) generating a strongly deep layer sheared environment for severe convective weather.  Also just to note, though the figures over France look insane, it's also properly capped on that frame (CINH is like 600-700J/kg lol), so nothing would arise over there. 

Obviously looong way out, but keeping my eye on late next week and into next.    

[William Grimsley]

23 minutes ago, weather09 said:

This is what we're hoping for...

 

Good heat and moisture advecting from south at sfc/low-levels to build good instability. Negatively tilted upper trough out west and falling heights releasing moderate CAPE. Backed sfc winds and strong and veering winds with height (SW jet winds aloft - follow the 500mb height contours) generating a strongly deep layer sheared environment for severe convective weather.  Also just to note, though the figures over France look insane, it's also properly capped on that frame (CINH is like 600-700J/kg lol), so nothing would arise over there. 

Obviously looong way out, but keeping my eye on late next week and into next.    

We'd probably get a supercell from those charts!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Yes on Sat24 looks like a small thin line of cloud beginning to form and push eastwards over the Kent area. Surface heating hopefully staying strong over the next few hours so a short chase to dorking or beyond not out of the question if things start to pick up over Sussex.

I was wondering if Box Hill might be a good place to head but still think it's too far west for any likely activity. Don't need any more big chase days until there's something significant to expect. Come on summer!!!

On a positive note even if nothing happens we get a rather nice sunny BH Sunday out of it down this way, so win-win :-)

[Gordon Webb]

1 hour ago, weather09 said:

This is what we're hoping for...

 

Good heat and moisture advecting from south at sfc/low-levels to build good instability. Negatively tilted upper trough out west and falling heights releasing moderate CAPE. Backed sfc winds and strong and veering winds with height (SW jet winds aloft - follow the 500mb height contours) generating a strongly deep layer sheared environment for severe convective weather.  Also just to note, though the figures over France look insane, it's also properly capped on that frame (CINH is like 600-700J/kg lol), so nothing would arise over there. 

Obviously looong way out, but keeping my eye on late next week and into next.    

I do admire your optimism I really do

[William Grimsley]

48 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

I do admire your optimism I really do

With most models agreeing with this setup, I wouldn't call it optimism...

[A.J]

52 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

I do admire your optimism I really do

to be fair, W09 doesn't do ramping, he calls it as the model shows and has a good chunk of personal knowledge to enable some pretty accurate forecasting 

[NUT]

I wish I had got a pic last sunday (when all the showers we're ongoing last weekend) as it was getting dark I saw a really lovely distant cumulonimbus (sure as hell hope it was) to the north of me. Didn't think to get a pic but really was nice to see (although the trees we're partly obscuring the view of it too)

[bigguscumulus]

A view of the rather diminutive shower over mid Wales.