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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards

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Sat by A303 but thinking I need to go west now!

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come to Carmarthen, wales - the storm capital of the UK lol

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I'm in Honiton now but none of the cells to the NE are electrified so I'm giving it a day, thanks guys!

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Sat in a lay-by on A303 near Wincanton, if you see a black Audi its probably me! Lots of convection going on but I think the capping needs to be broken. Still plenty of time yet.

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8 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

I'm in Honiton now but none of the cells to the NE are electrified so I'm giving it a day, thanks guys!

Quote

Oh dear ...By the law of Sod

 

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23 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

What's the word on any potential for the NW, the majority of the cells currently sparking-away are over the western side of Wales at the moment. Anything forecast moving up through the Midlands into the evening?

No it's all forecast to stay in the south and sw and wales and the only thing moving north through this evening will be miserable Hull or Sheffield Wednesday fans

Edited by Gordon Webb

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Bubbling up nicely here just hoping if it is going to kick off its later when its dark all storms this year have occurred in the day a night time storm is well over due.

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At least 8 children injured, 2 seriously, in lighting strike incident at the Parc Monceau in Paris - Le Monde

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7 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

At least 8 children injured, 2 seriously, in lighting strike incident at the Parc Monceau in Paris - Le Monde

well lets hope they all recover , sure nobobdy on this forum wants to see that no matter their attitudes to storms

 

story here - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36405482

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3614161/Ten-children-struck-lightning-park-Paris.html

 

seems they sought shelter under a tree

Edited by Gordon Webb

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things happening over some southern parts......surprised no one's mentioned the storms that have fired in next to no time in Cornwall

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1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

things happening over some southern parts......surprised no one's mentioned the storms that have fired in next to no time in Cornwall

Quite impressive and a decent amount of lightning detected.

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To be honest, I'm not that upset that I didn't see anything, at least I got to see a new part of England. It's just dissapointing how forecasts can look so good but nothing actually forms. From now on, I'll probably chase locally unless something big is very likely and I mean very likely to occur say further afield...

Looks like a cell has developed over Smeatharpe Airfield, rings a bell...

My only hope now is if something forms near Exeter for when I have to briefly go there this evening...

Oh, and looks like it was a bad decision I didn't go back towards Ilminster...

Edited by William Grimsley

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4 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

things happening over some southern parts......surprised no one's mentioned the storms that have fired in next to no time in Cornwall

Yep looks like showers are starting to get their act together. Just shows how quickly things can happen! Strike near Hereford way too.

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6 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

To be honest, I'm not that upset that I didn't see anything, at least I got to see a new part of England. It's just dissapointing how forecasts can look so good but nothing actually forms. From now on, I'll probably chase locally unless something big is very likely and I mean very likely to occur say further afield...

Looks like a cell has developed over Smeatharpe Airfield, rings a bell...

My only hope now is if something forms near Exeter for when I have to briefly go there this evening...

Oh, and looks like it was a bad decision I didn't go back towards Ilminster...

just in reply to the highlighted bit..............I don't agree with this.........the vast majority of the forecasts that I have seen, both on here and also from all of the model output available have shown the potential for a few generally isolated thunderstorms, and this is exactly what's happened so far....in fact, I'd go further and say that there have been possibly more thunderstorms/heavy showers in reality than what was forecasted/modelled............I think you've overplayed the storm potential if I'm honest thus setting yourself for a let down from a totally IMBY perspective

Edited by ajpoolshark

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It is also worth baring in mind that most forecasts for thunderstorms are only risk/probability based. We really need a proper plume and a decent trigger such as a slow moving cold front/surface trough to see the large storms that cover larger areas in one hit. When it comes to relying on convection from the daytime heating, it tends to be like today - hit and miss and pulse storm affairs (not always though...can get some decent days if things are favorable)

Edited by Chris K

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gone cloudy here but I think it's that type of cloud that builds in the afternoons but seems to clear in the evening probably a big fancy word for it but I don't know it so I'll just call it cloudy

Edited by Gordon Webb

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2 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

just in reply to the highlighted bit..............I don't agree with this.........the vast majority of the forecasts that I have seen, both on here and also from all of the model output available have shown the potential for a few generally isolated thunderstorms, and this is exactly what's happened so far....in fact, I'd go further and say that there have been possibly more thunderstorms/heavy showers in reality than what was forecasted/modelled............I think you've overplayed the storm potential if I'm honest thus setting yourself for a let down from a totally IMBY perspective

No, that's not right at all. I am not overplaying it, I set out today to only expect to see a few flashes and/or here some rumbles of thunder not full blown thunderstorms hence why I was slightly dissapointed, not hugely, slightly...

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2 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

No, that's not right at all. I am not overplaying it, I set out today to only expect to see a few flashes and/or here some rumbles of thunder not full blown thunderstorms hence why I was slightly dissapointed, not hugely, slightly...

*sigh*

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Just looking at the Met Office map I may just about have a chance on the way back from Exeter of getting something locally, to say how late these showers have formed I may get lucky...

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Just now, William Grimsley said:

No, that's not right at all. I am not overplaying it, I set out today to only expect to see a few flashes and/or here some rumbles of thunder not full blown thunderstorms hence why I was slightly dissapointed, not hugely, slightly...

But that's the weather.....unpredictable. Your time will come.

As for Southampton not a great deal to report....but I thought that before it got dark last night! 

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I'm not sure what people's problems are here, I am not having a rant, I'm just saying that I was slightly dissapointed. Apologies.

Anyway, looking at the radar, no wonder it would be hard to chase anyway, the showers have been and gone in 20 minutes!

17:43: Just heard thunder to the north. :)

Edited by William Grimsley

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meanwhile Carmarthen is like the Alien Queen in the film - Alien - and just keeps sporning more storms - amazing

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2 minutes ago, James_southampton said:

But that's the weather.....unpredictable. Your time will come.

As for Southampton not a great deal to report....but I thought that before it got dark last night! 

Indeed James, let's  hope something happens soon! I'm prepared to drive out to the new forest if anything does kick off. Not throwing in the towel just yet

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Just now, Hector the Convector said:

Indeed James, let's  hope something happens soon! I'm prepared to drive out to the new forest if anything does kick off. Not throwing in the towel just yet

Hmm, just like everyone else thinks I've done that! But, funnily enough I haven't!:yahoo:

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1 hour ago, William Grimsley said:

No point now, not sure what to think about these thunderstorm chases, I'm wasting fuel and obviously money for nothing!

I'm not sure what you're even chasing thin air? Silly antics on mediocre days like this, be patient the right day will eventually come, be patient Will... 

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