Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards

[biggreyface]

13 minutes ago, Azazel said:

got a banging headache again today if that means anything:p

Yep time for some anadin

[Summer Sun]

Moderate chance of thunderstorms

Day 1 Convective Outlook: Tue 07 Jun 2016

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 07 Jun 2016 - 05:59 UTC Wed 08 Jun 2016

ISSUED 09:41 UTC Tue 07 Jun 2016

ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan

UPDATE 09:41 UTC Tweaks to SLGT and addition of MDT areas to highlight zones of better thunderstorm coverage / higher confidence

A complicated setup exists on Tuesday with various rounds / potential for thunderstorms through the forecast period. Synoptically, a plume of warm, moist air continues to advect north from the nearby Continent, capped initially by a notable warm nose aloft. However, it is likely that elevated convection will be ongoing Tuesday morning over the Irish Sea into eastern Northern Ireland / extreme SW Scotland, and perhaps also feeding into SE England from remnant overnight convection over France / English Channel - although the extent and amount of lightning activity with this remains questionable.

Otherwise, diurnal heating combined with low-level convergence (sea breeze and orographic forcing) with a shortwave trough nudging slowly NE-wards will allow isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop through the afternoon and evening hours, forming into clusters along areas of pronounced wind convergence. DLS is rather weak in the main, leading to fairly disorganised convection, but given slow storm motion, relatively high MLCAPE (700-1100 Jkg-1) and 28-32mm PWAT, any storms that do develop could produce frequent lightning, local flash flooding with rain accumulations of 15-30mm in 1 hour, and hail up to 2.0cm in diameter. Converging low-level winds and rapidly rising updrafts may allow a couple of brief funnels / tornadoes to develop.

Storms will gradually decay through the late evening hours, although may still produce lightning well beyond 00z Wednesday across the East Midlands / Home Counties. The SLGT over the Home Counties may need to be merged with the SLGT over northern England if confidence continues to increase, along with perhaps the introduction of a MDT - trends will be monitored for this during Tuesday.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-06-07

Edited June 7, 2016 by Summer Sun

[weirpig]

Quite a decent warning from the metoffice   large swaths of the country in for at least a shot at a storm or two   hail and frequent lightning strikes will do me

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1465340400&regionName=wm

Edited June 7, 2016 by weirpig

[Gordon Webb]

50 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

 

[P-M]

Cells popping up over the north Pennines now to name a spot (a few all over the country now) - it fares well for this area I think but the next thing is for them to form proper and drift eastwards...

[Gordon Webb]

Met office have issued new warnings for SE for showers \ storms lasting into overnight period valid until 0600 tomorrow they strangely included warwickshire and worcester in this warning too thought by tonight we would just too far west

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Gordon Webb said:

Met office have issued new warnings for SE for showers \ storms lasting into overnight period valid until 0600 tomorrow they strangely included warwickshire and worcester in this warning too thought by tonight we would just too far west

Yep and the west midlands conurbation   things will and can alter  i think anywhere could get a storm or two

[mountain shadow]

Had an excellent lightning storm last night in County Down. Very impressive sheet lightning. Best here for a long time.

[Convective]

Heavy rain on and off here, with some good rumbles of thunder!

[weatherobsuk]

The north pennines cell is really starting to spark-up 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/#m=sat;r=0;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=;n=0;y=54.7047;x=-2.188;z=10;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;

[William Grimsley]

Moderate thunderstorm risk issued by Convective Weather, oh I'm now fearing for people's lives in those areas! :O

Edited June 7, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Allseasons-Si]

Cell firing up NW of London?

[Speedway Slider]

22 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Moderate chance of thunderstorms

Day 1 Convective Outlook: Tue 07 Jun 2016

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 07 Jun 2016 - 05:59 UTC Wed 08 Jun 2016

ISSUED 09:41 UTC Tue 07 Jun 2016

ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan

UPDATE 09:41 UTC Tweaks to SLGT and addition of MDT areas to highlight zones of better thunderstorm coverage / higher confidence

A complicated setup exists on Tuesday with various rounds / potential for thunderstorms through the forecast period. Synoptically, a plume of warm, moist air continues to advect north from the nearby Continent, capped initially by a notable warm nose aloft. However, it is likely that elevated convection will be ongoing Tuesday morning over the Irish Sea into eastern Northern Ireland / extreme SW Scotland, and perhaps also feeding into SE England from remnant overnight convection over France / English Channel - although the extent and amount of lightning activity with this remains questionable.

Otherwise, diurnal heating combined with low-level convergence (sea breeze and orographic forcing) with a shortwave trough nudging slowly NE-wards will allow isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop through the afternoon and evening hours, forming into clusters along areas of pronounced wind convergence. DLS is rather weak in the main, leading to fairly disorganised convection, but given slow storm motion, relatively high MLCAPE (700-1100 Jkg-1) and 28-32mm PWAT, any storms that do develop could produce frequent lightning, local flash flooding with rain accumulations of 15-30mm in 1 hour, and hail up to 2.0cm in diameter. Converging low-level winds and rapidly rising updrafts may allow a couple of brief funnels / tornadoes to develop.

Storms will gradually decay through the late evening hours, although may still produce lightning well beyond 00z Wednesday across the East Midlands / Home Counties. The SLGT over the Home Counties may need to be merged with the SLGT over northern England if confidence continues to increase, along with perhaps the introduction of a MDT - trends will be monitored for this during Tuesday.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-06-07

Hi folks, quick question, 

 

the forecast period. Synoptically, a plume of warm, moist air continues to advect north from the nearby Continent, capped initially by a notable warm nose aloft. However, it is likely that elevated convection

 

What is a (notable warm "nose" aloft)

 

"nose"

 

In weather speak??

Thanks..

 

[Harry]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Cell firing up NW of London?

Too difficult to verify here as the skies are turning increasingly hazy.

I can see one lump of AcCas poking up, so instability clearly on the rise.

[Supacell]

It's very hazy overhead here. My plan now is to head down the M1 after work and aim to get storms that are expected in the SE Midlands towards Milton Keynes area. Of course, my plan could change by that time dependent on what is happening by that time.

[William Grimsley]

Low cloud now clearing here and still awfully oppresive especially out of the wind and in the sun, sky is Altocumulus cloud filled.

[Supacell]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Cell firing up NW of London?

Yes, looks like it just south of Aylesbury. 

[StormChaseUK]

SE of Oxford yes a cell starting to form.

[Noahjoe]

Distant thunder heard from the channel cells. I have a great view, but not directly south unfortunately!

Edited June 7, 2016 by Noahjoe

[Derbyshire_snow]

Looks like there is something forming just north east of Grantham can anyone confirm this?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Its gonna be a long day...

[Gordon Webb]

Yep I expect so

[A.J]

3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Its gonna be a long day...

yep.....from an IMBY view, I'm actually close to calling it a no show despite being in the forcecasted warning zone.....looking at the model output and then looking at the sky doesn't fill me with hope.....It's calm, fairly mild, but certainly not warm/hot and not feeling especially humid with a thick high cloud veil which will only suppress surface based convection. The radar shows a shortwave trough on the SE-NW axis giving some light rain 30-50 miles to my south west and it's the high cloud overspill from this trough which will suppress convection IMO. It wouldn't surprise me to see the actual areas for shower/thunderstorm development to be further east than forecasted and today is the one day I can't chase.....sorry for my rather negative thoughts, and I'd love to be pleasantly surprised, but I'm just not 'feeling it' today from an IMBY perspective....good luck to all storm lovers further north and east, I think you'll end up happy today

[Staffordshire]

Not very hopeful at all for my home town today, however things are looking very promising for the SE later on tonight, just wish I had an excuse to drive down there haha, good luck too all chasing and anyone wishing a storm will come to them, could be some pretty lively convection today.

[P-M]

Definitely a pre-thunderous sky and feel out there today - that cell to the west of me has pepped up but not sure if it will drift this far east or continue building!