Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards

[NO LONGER POSTING]

@Harry this is one problem I see, no spark yeah you could have 1500kj and a LI of -10, but you get no trigger or lift it will stay as just that "potential energy" 

Cloud looks problematic too, the GFS cooks over temps and LIs if it thinks 8-5 will be sunny.. Not the case 90% of the time.

Although, it certainly looks as though things will hot up so to speak..

[William Grimsley]

Okie dokes, off to hibernation it is.

[Speedway Slider]

What on earth is that in the north sea? It's roughly where all the cells seemed to fire, or re-fire the last few days? Is it there? Or the dreaded Anaprop?

The lower picture is a close up....

Edited June 3, 2016 by Speedway Slider

[MattTarrant]

29 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

What on earth is that in the north sea? It's roughly where all the cells seemed to fire, or re-fire the last few days? Is it there? Or the dreaded Anaprop?

The lower picture is a close up....

Seems to well defined for anaprop and on a large scale so unlikely but considering are luck probably

*Netweather radar shows it so 95% certain its a shower

Edited June 3, 2016 by MattTarrant

[A.J]

100% a decaying shower drifting westwards, a quick glimpse at sat24 visisat shows it clearly 

[NUT]

They did say that there was a chance of something in Northern Scotland today. Looking at the radar I can see why. Looks as if some of the rain quite nasty up there

[Milocation]

1 hour ago, MattTarrant said:

Seems to well defined for anaprop and on a large scale so unlikely but considering are luck probably

*Netweather radar shows it so 95% certain its a shower

osaw that earlier and thought the same

[andymusic]

3 hours ago, Surrey said:

Oh okay, take the below with caution subject to change massively it has been over the last few runs 

Saturday: East 

Sunday: West 

Monday: central southern 

Tuesday: East 

 

Rember these charts don't mean storms will happen, just one of many ingredients required although one of the most important is getting the energy there. 

 

Sunday is looking like a bust already with the BBC going for clear/dry and hot most of the day

 

Edited June 3, 2016 by andymusic

[MattTarrant]

2 hours ago, andymusic said:

Sunday is looking like a bust already with the BBC going for clear/dry and hot most of the day

 

The BBC develop heavy showers/thunderstorms in the south west and possibly extending towards Isle of Wight.

GFS is also progging CAPE values into the low 1000's along with some limited wind convergence and -4/-5 lifted index. I am not expecting anything widespread but there is the distinct possibility of a few very intense storms developing. I most happy with the temperatures reaching the low twenties widely!!

Edited June 3, 2016 by MattTarrant

[Arnie Pie]

A few 'Mares tails' showing over the Midlands.......Usually a good sign of things to come

A good chance this coming week for all IMO

[Milocation]

anyone think that the storms north of Amsterdam will make it???

[Raidan]

Not going to moan if nothing happens this weekend had my share of storms already this year but would be nice to end my week off like I started it with a storm.

[William Grimsley]

Mare tails? I've seen them around. Is that like Altocumulus Castellanus cloud?

[andymusic]

temps next week look like getting into high 20s and around 30c - should be good for setting off a few "humdingers"

Edited June 3, 2016 by andymusic

[Weather-history]

8 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Mare tails? I've seen them around. Is that like Altocumulus Castellanus cloud?

I don't see the connection with thunderstorms.  They are more to do with your bog standard Atlantic frontal systems coming in.

"Mare's tails and mackerel skies make tall ships carry low sails"

Edited June 3, 2016 by Weather-history
.

[William Grimsley]

"Cloudier with some heavy and perhaps thundery rain spreading northeast early on Tuesday, then sunny spells and isolated showers."

BBC onto something now for us early next week.

Models seeming pretty consistent for Sunday now. Chasing in Somerset looks like to be on the cards! Woop!

Edited June 3, 2016 by William Grimsley

[lassie23]

Michael Fish going for thundery showers Monday/Tuesday particularly in Williams back yard

[MattTarrant]

36 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

"Cloudier with some heavy and perhaps thundery rain spreading northeast early on Tuesday, then sunny spells and isolated showers."

BBC onto something now for us early next week.

Models seeming pretty consistent for Sunday now. Chasing in Somerset looks like to be on the cards! Woop!

Lets pray together, for once though there is higher temps, slightly higher Cape values and the proper continental heat will move quite far north.

[Mapantz]

There is some substance in scattered showers/storms developing in the SW, late afternoon on Sunday.

[Stormyking]

Latest 12z has got my interest suddenly for Sunday night into Monday, an area of Elevated showers/ storms develop in the channel and push up from the South East, its only 1 run but theres been a bit of a trend on something being picked up, still early days. Wasn't that interested in monday morning before but confidence has gone up a touch,  reminds me a little of June 2013

As for the rest of the uk its looking like an interesting few days coming up

 

[William Grimsley]

@Stormyking, that what I was trying to explain to @ajpoolshark. LOL. I do feel you're right there, Sunday Night does look interesting and it would be a nice treat after thunderstorm chasing all day. LOL. Imagine if that came to fruition! Thunderstorm hunger eliminated!

[Stormyking]

Just now, William Grimsley said:

@Stormyking, that what I was trying to explain to @ajpoolshark. LOL. I do feel you're right there, Sunday Night does look interesting and it would be a nice treat after thunderstorm chasing all day. LOL. Imagine if that came to fruition! Thunderstorm hunger eliminated!

The charts before didnt look that great for Monday morning, so I understood AJ's post as to why so was kinda with him on that one im afraid mate, but the latest run increases the potential for sure but im gonna take it with a pinch of salt as we have been here before and it ends in tears, still a few days away  

[William Grimsley]

Haha, not quite tears but frustration close to *throwing the monitor out of the window* moments...

[Ben Sainsbury]

Details far from certain but with Sunday, having potential for my area I definitely see potential for CS England into the SW and South Midlands, CAPE looking high, Plenty of Dirnual Heating and a defined convergence zone over CS England, moving NW'wards through the day. Definitely the chance of a funnel cloud originally within red box too on Sunday between 12-3pm. Current ideas are as below. Probably too premature. Will update later tomorrow.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

My dear youngers, we must contain our excitement until we nail down more details.

The elders will get upset..

Beer anyone?