June 2016 C.E.T. Forecasts

[Matthew.]

2 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Low 15s by the 24th seems likely, it really then does depend on the last week, which is Fantasy Island territory for the models.

I have 15.5 to the coolest point to the 19th. (15.9times14 +14.5+16+14.5+13.5+13.5divided by 19) The only way from here is gradually up. 

[DAVID SNOW]

4 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

I have 15.5 to the coolest point to the 19th. (15.9times14 +14.5+16+14.5+13.5+13.5divided by 19) The only way from here is gradually up. 

I make it a bit lower fwiw, GFS 12Z , And I can do the numbers too.  Up, maybe so.

[NorthYorksWeather]

On 11 June 2016 at 17:49, reef said:

It has been a different start to the month here compared to the CET zone due to an almost constant easterly component to the wind. Our average is a mere 13.2C to the 11th, which is 1.2C below the 1981-2010 average.

Even more so here slightly further North, mean is currently 12.3c with parts of the North York Moors averaging around 11c for the month so far. Goes to show how the easterly wind can really depress the temperatures.

[Summer Sun]

15.8c to the 15th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[DAVID SNOW]

For the last week of June, todays 06 GFS, is now showing max temps of 22 degrees(2 days),  and the other days around 18. (all Fantasy Island still)

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'll do a full update tomorrow, but the 06z GFS would have the CET at about 15.6C at the end of the high res section, and essentially remaining there until the end of the June.

[Man With Beard]

8 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

I'll do a full update tomorrow, but the 06z GFS would have the CET at about 15.6C at the end of the high res section, and essentially remaining there until the end of the June.

ECM/UKMO runs woud put us at above 16C by the end of next week, surely? Much warmer than GFS, and at a very short time away

[DAVID SNOW]

8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM/UKMO runs woud put us at above 16C by the end of next week, surely? Much warmer than GFS, and at a very short time away

Maybe so MWB, but to not over complicate things, just the GFS is used, and its data is freely available.

[Summer Sun]

15.8c to the 16th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 12.0C, while maxima look like being around 18C, so remaining on 15.8C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

15.7C to the 18th (14.0: -0.8)
15.6C to the 19th (14.6: -0.6)
15.7C to the 20th (16.5: +1.4)
15.6C to the 21st (15.4: +1.0)
15.7C to the 22nd (16.1: +1.5)
15.7C to the 23rd (15.8: +1.0)
15.7C to the 24th (15.4: +0.5)
15.7C to the 25th (16.1: +0.8)
15.7C to the 26th (17.5: +2.2)

More signs of a warmer than average finish, with the GFS taking us to about 15.8C by months end.

At this stage, I'd say a finish of between 15.0C and 16.6C is possibly before corrections.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 14.4C quite a large difference.

[Roger J Smith]

12z GFS looks even warmer, last four days would average 19.0 or thereabouts.

12z ECM more muted. So the estimate could be as high as 16.5 and as low as 15.5 depending on which scenario prevails.

There has never been a 16.3, 16.5 or 16.7 June. If this one finished on any of those it would be 9th (16.7), 10th (16.5) or 15th (16.3) as 10th to 14th are currently shared by the five at 16.4 (1726. 1728., 1818, 1940, 1970).

 

[Matthew.]

19 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

12z GFS looks even warmer, last four days would average 19.0 or thereabouts.

12z ECM more muted. So the estimate could be as high as 16.5 and as low as 15.5 depending on which scenario prevails.

There has never been a 16.3, 16.5 or 16.7 June. If this one finished on any of those it would be 9th (16.7), 10th (16.5) or 15th (16.3) as 10th to 14th are currently shared by the five at 16.4 (1726. 1728., 1818, 1940, 1970).

 

Great stats Roger! I have a feeling youll be closer this month with 16 than me with 15.6.

[Summer Sun]

15.8c to the 17th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 14.2C -0.3C below normal a huge diffence

[Summer Sun]

15.7c to the 18th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

Models have settled into a not-quite-warm outcome that will probably maintain the CET in the high 15s most of the time.

I will have the July thread open soon, just hunting down the stats now.

[Summer Sun]

15.6c to the 19th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average

1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 14.6C, while maxima look like reaching the high 18s, so an increase to 15.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

15.7C to the 21st (15.7: +1.3)
15.7C to the 22nd (17.4: +2.8)
15.8C to the 23rd (17.6: +2.8)
15.8C to the 24th (16.1: +1.2)
15.8C to the 25th (14.4: -0.9)
15.8C to the 26th (15.4: +0.1)
15.8C to the 27th (16.5: +0.9)
15.8C to the 28th (16.6: +1.0)
15.8C to the 29th (16.3: +0.3)

A slightly above average final 10 days appears quite likely now, with a finishing range before corrections of about 15.5C-16.3C.

[DAVID SNOW]

Back from a nice weekend away

15.5 to 15.6 now looking likely (after corrections)

[Matthew.]

8 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Back from a nice weekend away

15.5 to 15.6 now looking likely (after corrections)

The models are starting to show more of an Azores influence from the weekend so a higher CET might be on the cards yet.

[Summer Sun]

15.7c to the 20th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[Mapantz]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

15.7c to the 20th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

That's what I plumped for, hopefully it'll the same come the 30th.

Hanging on at 15.5°C for my location, 1.7°C above the MetO regional average (81 - 10)

[Weather-history]

On 19 May 2016 at 18:13, Weather-history said:

A stats quirk but I think the average for Junes ending in "6" is about 14.8

4 of the top 5 warmest Junes end in a "6"

Looks like happening again. Not sure why June's ending in "6" have tended towards the warm side.

[Summer Sun]

15.6c to the 21st

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average

1.5c above the 81 to 10 average