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nsrobins

Chase Day 5 - Slight risk TX, OK, MS, IA

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Quite a conditional risk today with only moderate directional shear and the modification of moisture from ongoing ppn, but given the astonishing events of Monday I wouldn't rule out an OFB induced tornado before it all goes messy.

I might shuffle down to the Chickasha, OK area for initial target for no other reason than I like saying 'Chickasha' (;

Edited by nsrobins

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Difficult one today. Only seeing slight risk not enhanced for N/NE TX & SE OK. D2 & 3 not looking too great either although I'm sure Paul will sniff something out!  D3 is probably doable in Kansas butthe MRGL risk is far NE. D4 - 8 too far out as always.

Edited by Chris Sargent

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Up in Iowa today, likely to be upgraded to enhanced for tornado risk.

Edited by Nick L

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Steve and Oliver with today's brief, briefing!

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Yep heading back south today, thought about Misery but not a big fan of Cold Fronts and the boys have the Warm Front covered further North so going for some Structure and Extreme Cape and Hail today with the outside chance at a Tornado. Its May and anything can happen over here so lets see

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Afternoon all, GPS up stream to follow once things get rocking probably around 9pm UK time! 

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HRRR shows our target cell blowing up nicely in a couple of hours, lunch n then chase!!!

refcmp.us_sc.png

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As Dave mentioned, GPS tracking is up already, with the stream on later. The new GPS map for the team went live yesterday, and now allows you to view the SPC outlooks, watches/warnings and mesoscale discussions on it (along with the radar). Just click the markers on the outlooks/warning boxes etc for more info on them. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

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If you need divine intervention today, you are in the right spot....

 

opposite the Assembly Hall of Jehovah's Witnesess

Edited by matty40s

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Team sat nicely in an mesoscale discussion area now:

md-team.png

Quote

MCD - 11/2100Z

ACUS11 KWNS 111933 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111932 TXZ000-112100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0604 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 111932Z - 112100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY INITIATE ACROSS THE MCD AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF N-CNTRL TX...AIRMASS RECOVERY IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MCD AREA...WITH PLENTIFUL DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING MLCAPE VALUES TO INCREASE INTO THE 2000-3500 J/KG RANGE PER 19Z RAP MESOANALYSIS. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING ALONG A DRYLINE EXTENDING ABOUT 40 SE LUB TO 30 E MRF...AND ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM THE DRYLINE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN N TX. RECENT HRRR-PARALLEL RUNS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE MCD AREA COMBINED WITH A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AND SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS PARTS OF N/CNTRL TX THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

..GLEASON/HART.. 05/11/2016

 

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couple of storms now kicking off between Abilene and Lubbock, spot on for zone.

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Our team is on the move west,are they intercepting those new cells?

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
spell check

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15 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Our team is on the move west,are they intercepting those new cells?

 

Nope, off to Walmart for the midseason sale...:D

 

 

The storms are pretty much moving Easterly at the moment, and are increasing like a rash according to the SVStudios radar.

Edited by matty40s

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3 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Nope, off to Walmart for the midseason sale...:D

 

 

The storms are pretty much moving Easterly at the moment, and are increasing like a rash according to the SVStudios radar.

Lol

cell has become severe warned now

i should imagine that there will be more firing up south of these.

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HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... JAYTON...GIRARD AND CLAIREMONT.

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This is the only discrete cell around at the moment so should be a good one to intercept,sferics non too shabby either

only half hour left before i turn in:shok::(:sorry:

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Should this be T warned soon,theres a developing hook to the s side of it?

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43 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

This is the only discrete cell around at the moment so should be a good one to intercept,sferics non too shabby either

only half hour left before i turn in:shok::(:sorry:

Is the only severe warned storm for several 100 miles, nearest other one is just south of St Louis in Missouri

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Got onto it near Albany and it went Tornado warned just before the whole line filled in - A few funnels dropping but no noticable rotation seen

Fleeing east for some lightning shots still 86f

 

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