Storm risk - Monday 9th May onwards

[Hodgheg]

Bring on the proper summertime storms. These bore me, ill be honest. 

[Milocation]

Wind has picked up here, the temperature has just plummeted. Can see rain on the way, fingers crossed something happens! 

[Dale Hay]

Just got back from The Midlands (went via Wales and over the Severn Bridge) ... we hit that cell you see on the radar at 17:30/17:35. Witnessed two MASSIVE bolts of fork lightning and rain on a biblical scale.

 

Just going through the dash cam footage to find the two huge bolts (17:37 and 17:39).

[Hodgheg]

Nothing much here, maybe better luck tomorrow. I must share something that makes me cringe slightly. On the BBC weather twitter someone posted an obvious photo of a funnel cloud with the question"Is this the beginning of a twister?" I don't quite know what it is but it makes me cringe almost as much as "Mini tornado" 

[shuggee]

Bullseye for Edinburgh, but the sea is having its usual moderating effect.

[Mapantz]

A few moans and groans appearing I see? I'm not sure what folks were expecting today? I think it went as planned judging by the models this morning?! The risk was low for the majority, more emphasis on torrential downpours with hail, anything else was a bonus. 

I don't know if it is just me, but it has been a while since i've seen a pretty active start to the convective season? Long may it continue.

[SalopWatcher]

Having a good little storm here in Shrewsbury to the west of town. Actually out for a run so claiming this as the first storm chase by foot!! 

[Dale Hay]

As mentioned in my above post, here's some pics of the dash cam lightning as we approached the Severn Bridge.

  

[SalopWatcher]

Actually intensified as it went south east. Right over head now. Sheet, fork and CC lightening observed with instant thunder. Nice end to the weekend. If I was closer to home I would get in car and chase but still 4 miles from home. New cell north west too. Very convective sky's. 

[joanna1971]

Nice bit of unexpected thunder tonight here in Shrewsbury 

[weather09]

Yep, nothing significant was ever anticipated given the nature of the setup - cool, post-front, low CAPE, low shear environment. But such setups at this time of year adequate for some reasonably decent short-lived storms.  Need to distinguish the proper storm setups - i.e warm/very warm, moist pre-front air masses with moderate or high CAPE - from the cool, post- front ones such as today.  They're not the same.  The likelihood of storms, and storm severity, varies depending on the type of setup we're looking at. Still, doesn't look like it has been too bad overall today. Quite a few weak storms up and down the UK.

Another low risk tomorrow, but keeping my eye on Friday where we could see some decent enough warmth and moisture advection across the country as ridge builds north over southern/central europe, with upper low setting up west of Iberia.  GFS and euros broadly agreeing with the general upper pattern at this stage, though naturally to varying degrees.  Quite far out so a lot of change ahead.  If things hold up well will probably book the day off and have 4-day weekend lol.  Here's hoping.

Edited May 22, 2016 by weather09

[SalopWatcher]

Now big hail storm. Stuck under atree. Send help.. lol amazing! Think this was second storm

[Raidan]

No rain since this morning, clouds bubbled up went dark at times but nothing came from any of it which is a shame.

[Hodgheg]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

A few moans and groans appearing I see? I'm not sure what folks were expecting today? I think it went as planned judging by the models this morning?! The risk was low for the majority, more emphasis on torrential downpours with hail, anything else was a bonus. 

I don't know if it is just me, but it has been a while since i've seen a pretty active start to the convective season? Long may it continue.

I wasn't expecting much, and didn't get much. I can still moan about that lol. Seriously though, I've learned much following the forum over the years. I don't expect much after that lovely warm air has been pushed away east. You can still get some nice results from these sort of days, i always hope to be the one under than one cell that pops up and is impressive lol. 

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 23 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Tue 24 May 2016

ISSUED 19:18 UTC Sun 22 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Chris

The axis of a marked upper trough will slowly move away to the southeast of the UK, however cold air will remain aloft ahead of an upper ridge that will begin to build in from the west during Monday afternoon. Surface to 500mb lapse rates will be similar to Sunday, around 40C, with CAPE values 200-400j/kg. Scattered showers will begin to develop across the ISOL area around midday and then slowly migrate westwards during the course of the afternoon, some becoming heavy with the risk of lightning. Topographic forcing, particularly over N/Cen England will enhance the potential for thunder there, hence the SLGT risk in this area. 

These heavy showers and thunderstorms will be slow moving and likely form along surface convergence and topographic boundaries, thus heavy rain and localised flash flooding will possible. Models suggest localised totals of up to 20-25mm in places under the heaviest showers. 

http://www.convective.weatherquest.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-05-23

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Beginning to kick off over towards Cambridge way into Norfolk. 

[Milocation]

hoping for the rumble

[Weather-history]

Funny sort of day

 

[Raidan]

Really like what was said in the BBC weather forecast thunder mentioned quite a few times for bank holiday weekend though that's along way off so be checking the charts etc over this coming week to keep up to date would be great to get some storms to start my 9 days off work.

[Harry]

I'm of the thinking currently the BBC are really overhyping thunder risk this coming weekend (although chances for synoptic changes may make them correct).

Based on the GFS I looked at earlier, warm and moist air advects north across France towards S-UK as LP drifts SE across Iberia and the Med. This for all intents and purposes leads to a Spanish Plume across France generating a few thousand CAPE with LIs in the region of -7. Some of this encroaches across S-UK, particularly so earlier in the weekend. 

What concerns me however is the jet tracking away from the UK and leaving dynamics above us pretty uninspiring - if you cast back a few weeks ago we had a similar scenario with some warmth and moisture but a static atmosphere caused many frustration as the atmosphere just did not pop.

The Beeb earlier showed potential on Friday for some imported thunderstorms particularly across the SE however the exact track of this remains very uncertain. Thereafter there is some instability shown across the south but in a jet free environment so relying on hit and miss pulse type storms.

As ever hope I am very wrong, but at the moment I'm not overly excited and think the Beeb are over-egging it.......

 

[alexisj9]

8 hours ago, Harry said:

I'm of the thinking currently the BBC are really overhyping thunder risk this coming weekend (although chances for synoptic changes may make them correct).

Based on the GFS I looked at earlier, warm and moist air advects north across France towards S-UK as LP drifts SE across Iberia and the Med. This for all intents and purposes leads to a Spanish Plume across France generating a few thousand CAPE with LIs in the region of -7. Some of this encroaches across S-UK, particularly so earlier in the weekend. 

What concerns me however is the jet tracking away from the UK and leaving dynamics above us pretty uninspiring - if you cast back a few weeks ago we had a similar scenario with some warmth and moisture but a static atmosphere caused many frustration as the atmosphere just did not pop.

The Beeb earlier showed potential on Friday for some imported thunderstorms particularly across the SE however the exact track of this remains very uncertain. Thereafter there is some instability shown across the south but in a jet free environment so relying on hit and miss pulse type storms.

As ever hope I am very wrong, but at the moment I'm not overly excited and think the Beeb are over-egging it.......

 

Was there a jet streak included in saturday's kent clipper?

[SalopWatcher]

http://www.shropshirestar.com/news/2016/05/23/house-in-shrewsbury-hit-by-lightning-during-storm/

The local paper report on the storm we had last night in Shrewsbury. Includes some photos and videos.

My phone died right in the middle of it, but i eventually got home drenched after hiding first under a tree and then someones porch. Was the best storm we have had in the town for a long time and the rain/hail was epic. Having been warm/close all day, the rain felt so cold on you as it came down. I note from looking at the radar, a small storm to the south west back built into a line away from town and then it was the line that swept over the town. Thats how i got caught out, i was following the first element of the line and never noticed what was building behind me! It was also interesting to note the whole thing just died right after passing the town and never had any electrical activity again. 

Anyway, hope more of you guys can experience something like that this Spring/Summer. 

[Chris.R]

 Well I was right. No lightning north-west of 53N 2W.  Better luck later in the week. 

[Eye to the sky]

Some big clouds getting going in the north Midlands this was taken at 10am.I'm just on the edge of the storm risk area today.

[William Grimsley]

It may be that the BBC are over exagerating everything, but I still think the SW particularly has a high risk of thunderstorms later on this week and into this weekend.