Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Man With Beard]

Well it's all about "how hot" now. Brings back memories from last year!! Blue army - I recall our little debate last year (fondly because I was lucky enough to call it right!) - well for this plume I've kind of been on your page, the extreme charts would be wrong and we'd be looking at the 90F mark rather than 98F ... 

Until now.

This is the Euro4 for Tuesday morning. Now I recall the Euro4 ending up spot on last year - and that included upping the 850s by a couple of degrees compared to the GFS.

So compare with GFS for Tuesday morning:

On average, the uppers are between 1 and 2C higher in the English Channel.

This is a big assumption - but assuming the 850s remain higher to that degree during Tuesday and Wednesday, then we may well be looking at 33-35C as the national max, rather than 32C/33C.

It would take temps into the "exceptional" zone, rather than the very impressive zone.

Not a forecast from me, but a growing sense that this may be even hotter than we thought

[mb018538]

The 12z gfs is a belter, showing high pressure fairly close by throughout the run. Probably an outlier, though UKMO shows the high edging in once more by next weekend. Maybe the washout weather is gone for a while!

[Frosty.]

Well it's nearly plume time, looks very warm tomorrow on the Gfs 12z op run across England and Wales and gradually becoming  more humid, there is a chance of an isolated heavy shower but for many it looks dry with long sunny spells and temps between 25/29c from north to south but maybe parts of the SE could hit 30c tomorrow but it's tuesday which looks warmest / hottest,  even across scotland it could reach 80F. I still believe the gfs is under cooking the temps by a few degrees and that somewhere in central and southern / southeast England will reach the magic 90F on tuesday but then come the thunderstorms although the main focus looks further west and north which would mean the south / southeast would again reach 29/30c midweek which still looks very humid further east. Thurs/Fri turn fresher from the west but mainly dry with sunny spells with temps into the low 20's c and next weekend looks fine and warm in the south of the uk as the Azores ridge extends across southern areas but more changeable and less warm in the northwest of the BI.

[Frosty.]

Excellent Gfs 12z after the plume with high pressure dominating the uk for the rest of July with the jetstream shunted well to the north and becoming fragmented, running across Iceland. For the uk it shows a summery outlook.

[northwestsnow]

Thats more like it, just need meto to come on board now after their faulty update earlier, gfs and ukmo both say high pressure in charge, thanking you !! 

[William Grimsley]

@Karl., that's a stunning GFS run, it's rare to see the GFS be so positve right until the end!

[Frosty.]

This mini heatwave looks a cracker, some spots hitting 33c 91f on Tuesday which means a few areas could go a notch higher and reach 34/35c but then a thundery breakdown, anywhere could get a storm but it appears the main focus is across the west and north Tues night into Wednesday, Tuesday night could be record warm and humid and midweek still looks very warm again with mid to high 20s c further s / e.

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

@Karl., that's a stunning GFS run, it's rare to see the GFS be so positve right until the end!

Yes it's a great run, nice to see the jetstream across Iceland.

[Bristawl Si]

So a question for the experts on here - is this a genuine 'pattern change'?

It's only a few days ago that a few on here were saying "No pattern change" coming, even if we have these few days of heat. Are the charts hinting at a more longer term change (i.e. next few weeks rather than just a few days)? Thoughts anyone?

[MP-R]

Typical that this weather shows up just as I'm going away on holiday. The models are indeed painting a much better picture in terms of sustained settled weather, albeit not always hot, for the remainder of the month. It would be encouraging to see these charts continue into the first half of August.

[knocker]

24 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Yes it's a great run, nice to see the jetstream across Iceland.

Were you thinking any particular day for the this as a general comment for the run it's straight down the middle?

Edited July 17, 2016 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

15 minutes ago, knocker said:

Were you thinking any particular day for the this as a general comment for the run it's straight down the middle?

Oh cmon knocker!!! Thats a glorious GFS operational with HP in charge for 99% of the run

GEFS are almost desert like for london rofl!!

Edited July 17, 2016 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

10 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

So a question for the experts on here - is this a genuine 'pattern change'?

It's only a few days ago that a few on here were saying "No pattern change" coming, even if we have these few days of heat. Are the charts hinting at a more longer term change (i.e. next few weeks rather than just a few days)? Thoughts anyone?

Well I'll give my opinion but I'm certainly not an expert. According to the anomalies I use, and I obviously haven't seen tonight's EPS or NOAA I don't think there is any indication of any major change to the upper air in the next 14 days. We still have a positive anomaly over Greenland, ridging Scandinavia , the trough to the north west and the Azores HP to the south west. As I said the other evening the detail regarding the day to day weather variations within this pattern for the UK depend to large extent on the waxing and waning of the trough and the Azores HP. Thus depending what phase this in rather dictates HP/LP influence for the UK. For example in the 6-10 period with the GEFs the trough is quite weak, ergo one would expect the Azores ridge to be more dominant. In the 10-15 period the trough gets a second wind. I am of course open to correction on this.

[knocker]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Oh cmon knocker!!! Thats a glorious GFS operational with HP in charge for 99% of the run

GEFS are almost desert like for london rofl!!

I'm afraid I don't follow your post nws. I was merely questioning Karl's assertion that the jet was over Iceland not commenting on the GFS run. I assume this is a roundabout way of saying I'm incorrect.

Edited July 17, 2016 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

Just now, knocker said:

I'm afraid I don't follow your post nws. I was merely questioning Karl's assertion that the jet was over Iceland not commenting on the GFS run.

Never mind.

Anyway, GFS and GEFS DO indicate a pattern change, a pretty impressive one at that with virtually no rain for london out to the beginning of August and i would assume that includes the jet well north of the UK, i will say i remain sceptical until the ECM and in particular the METO come on board, but if we take the GFS12Z and its ens suite, a pattern change is most defo there for all to see..

[knocker]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Never mind.

..

No not never mind. What were you inferring?

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Never mind.

Anyway, GFS and GEFS DO indicate a pattern change, a pretty impressive one at that with virtually no rain for london out to the beginning of August and i would assume that includes the jet well north of the UK, i will say i remain sceptical until the ECM and in particular the METO come on board, but if we take the GFS12Z and its ens suite, a pattern change is most defo there for all to see..

You assume incorrectly.

 

 

 

Edited July 17, 2016 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

Just now, knocker said:

No not never mind. What were you inferring?

That the jet will be north of the UK? 

[Summer Sun]

NAVGEM is still going for the mid 30's on Wednesday

30c possible again on Thursday

Mid 20's Friday before another surge towards the high 20's for Saturday then back to the mid 20's Sunday

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

You assume incorrectly.

 

 

 

Very weak jet, and the trough is kept north of the UK, btw i am commenting the on the GFS12Z op run, which has the trough to the north of the UK and the UK generally warm dry and settled..

Ps the style of your posts suggests you are annoyed about something? 'You assume incorrectly' in my book is a bit condescending - im sure thats not how you intend to come across?

Edited July 17, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

That the jet will be north of the UK? 

Correct, the Gfs 12z shows the jetstream shunted well north by high pressure building across the uk and being reinforced by the Azores high through to early august, the jetstream weakening and even fragmenting at times with the main core running through Iceland compared to most of this summer so far where a powerful jetstream has been right over the UK. Hope the gfs is right..I want more than a few days of summer!

[northwestsnow]

ECM shows us we have to be wary - the margins are quite fine between the High to the south and the trough to the north, better further south and east . The block over Greeny is looking very likely, our hope must be its West Based -NAO and we avoid the trough, i'm guessing the Metoffice are seeing the potential for some trough influence, fingers crossed Blue was onto something earlier..

[Frosty.]

24 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well I'll give my opinion but I'm certainly not an expert.

 

 

Now I'm really confused, I thought you were an expert

And the jetstream is shunted well to the north on the Gfs 12z in FI and it weakens and fragments and I'm certainly no expert but I know that much at least.

[William Grimsley]

24 minutes ago, knocker said:

No not never mind. What were you inferring?

Ouch, think you need to admit you were wrong on this occasion. GFS shows the jet stream being well to the north of the UK for most of the run in between the UK and Iceland.

Anyway, whatever your post shows is not really what I'd call a jetstream, it's barely got any strength!

Edited July 17, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Ouch, think you need to admit you were wrong on this occasion. GFS shows the jet stream being well to the north of the UK for most of the run in between the UK and Iceland.

Anyway, whatever your post shows is not really what I'd call a jetstream, it's barely got any strength!

You are spot on, I even showed the netweather jetstream charts, don't know what knocker is on about, maybe he's had a few magic mushrooms.