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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

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well if GFS is anywhere near the mark it could turn out to be quite a protracted spell of summer,weather coming up.

We stay clear of the Atlantic for a good 8 or 9 days - temps generally warm and oftern dry for most away from the far NW.

Not sure the ukmo is quite as good but after June and the first half of July i think most will be happy.

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Hot on Tuesday, max temps certainly around 32C, The period of perhaps intense thundery activity would appear to be most likely from Tuesday evening through to Wednesday as the developing low moves north and introduces cooler air from the west, with the western spine of Britain being most effected but this is not written in stone as yet. The rest of  the ten day period tending towards the usual N/S split with temps around average, perhaps a little above in England.

gfs_6hr_precip_eur2_13.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur2_15.png

Edited by knocker

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No real change on 00Z runs so far. 

Although daytime records look out of reach on this occasion, I was wondering about nighttime ones? The warmest ever night, as far as I can see, was 23.9C in 1990. I'd have thought there was a chance of London falling no lower than 22C on Tuesday night - so not far away.

Also just put off interest, the GEM brings 20C uppers over much of southern England and 16C or more up into parts of Scotland. You could add a couple of degrees to expected temperatures if that verifies.

Further afield, the GFS continues to push weak ridges into the UK, keeping the southern half fairly warm, but the week nature of the ridges means confidence can't be too high on exactly what will transpire.

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This mornings output still offers the chance that Wednesday could be even hotter than Tuesday in eastern parts. The GFS continues with the more westerly track of this developing heat low and to be honest the other models have shifted west a bit as well. This could leave the rain over western areas whilst the east remains fine and sunny for most of the day. The arpege run is the most extreme and probably over cooked, I mean it has a forecast high of 35c over north Cambridgeshire. Surely not. Alas I only have my phone so can't post charts so it is a case of look for yourself. :)

Beyond Wednesday, it doesn't look too bad with a gentle westerly flow across the UK with conditions generally in the average to warm category, especially as winds look to be fairly light. Rainfall doesn't look to be too high apart from the potential for storms midweek.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

No real change on 00Z runs so far. 

Although daytime records look out of reach on this occasion, I was wondering about nighttime ones? The warmest ever night, as far as I can see, was 23.9C in 1990. I'd have thought there was a chance of London falling no lower than 22C on Tuesday night - so not far away.

Also just put off interest, the GEM brings 20C uppers over much of southern England and 16C or more up into parts of Scotland. You could add a couple of degrees to expected temperatures if that verifies.

Further afield, the GFS continues to push weak ridges into the UK, keeping the southern half fairly warm, but the week nature of the ridges means confidence can't be too high on exactly what will transpire.

22c min night temp is awful,hopefully it won't be achieved. I know this is in London but still health wise that is not good at all.

 

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In regards to Wednesday I notice the ECM is a little slower clearing the high 850's compared to the GFS, even by 6pm the 15C line stretches roughly from SE Wales to the Wash.
160717_0000_84.png 160717_0000_90.png 

It also has a slightly different take on the storms with less for the Western side on Tuesday night but then something intense developing on Wednesday, but probably not worth getting tied up about this aspect yet.
160717_0000_72.png 160717_0000_84.png 

Edited by Evening thunder

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NAVGEM shows a high of 32c on Tuesday with 40c quite widespread inland for France

navgemfr-8-60.png?17-08

Wednesday is now shown to be hotter than Tuesday with a high of 36C / 96.8F

navgemfr-8-84.png?17-07

Thursday sees the heat continuing in the south with a high of 29c

navgemfr-8-108.png?17-08

Friday and Saturday see temps slightly low peaking in the mid 20's

navgemfr-8-132.png?17-07navgemfr-8-156.png?17-08

By Sunday they could be on the up again with a high of 27c

navgemfr-8-180.png?17-08

With the Spanish Plume parts of inland Spain could see temps of 45c / 113F

Edited by Summer Sun

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So gfs and ecm shift the plume slightly further west and is a bit more intense!!dont often see upgrades close to the actual event!

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Navgem isn't the only model going silly hot by the way - ARPEGE also gets 35C into E Anglia on Wednesday. I'd say chances of this coming off are low but not impossible.

arpegeuk-31-90-0.png?17-06

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I've been watching the extended ens for a few days and the idea of the developing -NAO becoming more west based is gaining traction. This results in the far south never really coming under the upper trough and in time, we may see more of the UK avoiding it entirely. 

note the high uppers this week were touted initially by GEM. GFS too flat and ECM up and down from to run to run like a tarts draws. (And never amplified enough to draw them over us). even the spread on ECM uppers didn't smell the coffee for tues/wed. 

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27 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Navgem isn't the only model going silly hot by the way - ARPEGE also gets 35C into E Anglia on Wednesday. I'd say chances of this coming off are low but not impossible.

arpegeuk-31-90-0.png?17-06

 

Thats in tandem with uppers of 22c !!   Can't see that from the other modelling 

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If we manage a 34c somewhere then I'll apologise to a poster from a few days back for saying no chance! I said 31c maximum...how wrong I could be! If anything, today's output potentially extends the heat.

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3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

If we manage a 34c somewhere then I'll apologise to a poster from a few days back for saying no chance! I said 31c maximum...how wrong I could be! If anything, today's output potentially extends the heat.

Lol, 31C looks more like the maximum here, can see it reaching 33C near London.

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I'll also say that model watching definitely has its follies....10 or so days ago, nothing but muck was on the cards, and a few (including me) wondered if we'd even see a 30c recorded this summer. This mini heatwave snuck in under the radar and changed everything. So the lesson to learn, is however bad things seem, light can appear at the end of the tunnel sooner than you think!:D

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Just as i was beginning to get more optimistic mid term metoffice come out with a pretty poor update and defo a step away from the more positive updates of the last few days, perhaps mogreps is now suggesting something more troughy?

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9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Just as i was beginning to get more optimistic mid term metoffice come out with a pretty poor update and defo a step away from the more positive updates of the last few days, perhaps mogreps is now suggesting something more troughy?

To be fair the anomalies have been indicating this, whether it happens or not.

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29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Just as i was beginning to get more optimistic mid term metoffice come out with a pretty poor update and defo a step away from the more positive updates of the last few days, perhaps mogreps is now suggesting something more troughy?

Their update seems to indicate that the weather will be pretty ordinary? Nothing to get downbeat about.

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3 hours ago, cheese said:

Lol, 31C looks more like the maximum here, can see it reaching 33C near London.

AROME zoom showing the London heat island well - 30C max tomorrow can surely be well beaten in the following couple of days.

6407_huj3.png

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/aromezoom.php

 

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Well all still looks good for Tuesday at least for the majority of the UK with very warm or hot conditions spreading to most of the country. Monday looks to see the south of the UK basking in the very warm conditions.

viewimage.pbx?type=nmmlo;date=20160717;t   viewimage.pbx?type=nmmlo;date=20160717;t

So 29C, possibly 30C tomorrow in London, widely 29/30C on Tuesday across England and Wales with London possibly hitting the magic 90F mark. Mid-twenties widely across Ireland and 80F across the central belt of Scotland.

Wednesday is still looking uncertain, the track of the developing heat low over France could have big consequences in the surface conditions we see over the UK with some areas seeing the risk of some thundery downpours whilst areas east of this could remain hot and sunny. This mornings Arpege seemed to be a lot slower in moving the Atlantic trough eastwards and as such low pressure over France took much longer to move across the UK, hence a stronger push of heat northwards with less mixing out of 850s, this looks extreme to say the least.

The 06z seems to have increased the pace of the low moving northwards, more in line with other models but its track still differs.

arpegeeur-0-72.png?6

Tracking through the Irish sea and probably missing most of us with only western coasts and of course Ireland experiencing thundery downpours, again the result is hotter conditions potentially for Wednesday.

The GFS is further east than this, and the majority of the outputs push an area of instability with the risk of rain and thunderstorms north east, the UK seems to favour the Bristol channel up through to the Humber, the GFS favours Wales through to NE England and most of Scotland. Here is the NetWx-MR temperature forecast.

viewimage.pbx?type=nmmlo;date=20160717;t

Possibly 30-32C across the south east (Possibly 33C across central/northern parts of East Anglia. Cambridge, Mildenhall or Lakenheath favoured for the top temperatures on this day), the UKMO tending to have temperatures a couple of degrees lower (28-30C) with the rain a little further south east. But this situation is complex and we could see a lot of changes in this, the set up could correct west or east. Obviously for people who like heat, the set up going too far west at least offers the second prize of another hot and sunny day, I would feel that some places could get lucky Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, at this point I don't think the south east will see much rain at all as the breakdown is softened by pressure rising from the south as the next weak ridge from the Azores moves in. In essence take forecasts for Wednesday with a huge dose of salt.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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4 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Cloud, temps no higher than23, no sun...well we had 20 mins:rofl:....Yes great plume this:yahoo:...Nonsense

Can't be the same London I'm looking at - it's 27C with partly cloudy skies there.

5b5af1299d644532bbd51295e52e4de2.png

Edited by cheese

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7 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Cloud, temps no higher than23, no sun...well we had 20 mins:rofl:....Yes great plume this:yahoo:...Nonsense

Not sure why you're in such denial lol (and if you're in London the satellite shows there's some sun and it's about 27C), but you still haven't showed everyone what a plume actually is if this apparently isn't one (you may struggle to find a significantly hotter one 850hpa wise example in the archives)..

Edit: Cheese beat me to it 

20C uppers grazing the south, don't get too much higher than that, classic plume rather than a more prolonged heatwave.
h850t850eu.png

Edited by Evening thunder

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Later in the week we may see high pressure returning

GFS

gfs-0-120.png?12gfs-0-144.png?12

120-778UK.GIF?17-12144-778UK.GIF?17-12

UKMO

UW120-21.GIF?17-18UW144-21.GIF?17-18

 

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GEM, GFS and UKMO all show high pressure returning in some form later in the week (GFS and UKMO are quite similar) its exact position remains subject to change at this range of course

gem-0-144.png?12UW144-21.GIF?17-18gfs-0-144.png?12

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Right a large number of posts have been hidden, can we stick to the models please, if you want to talk about weather in your local area or want to complain about how this warm/hot spell is going then please post in the regional threads or the summer chat thread located here.

 

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These charts show this is no ordinary spell of warm weather. To say such would be nonsense. Monday, Tuesday, for the east Wednesday all will be welcomed by heat lovers:) might need the fan for night though:D

image.png

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