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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

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To be fair, even if the broad scale pattern is to continue to be westerly I'd rather have transient HP ridging in from the SW than full on LP dominated Westerly / Nwesterly. I think quite a few people are looking for milder and less unsettled weather than full on southerly heatwaves to be honest. This cold wet weather is really getting to be a pain.

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Looking at the 12 GFS out to T+60 I think it's heading towards a less favourable weekend, especially across the N, with everything shaping up to be a couple hundred miles farther south. Still nowhere near as grim as yesterdays 00 however, probably somewhere between that and todays 06. 

Edited by coldcomfort

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NCEP servers are struggling this pm, so GFS data is going to be later that usual.

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9 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

Looking at the 12 GFS out to T+60 I think it's heading towards a less favourable weekend, especially across the N

Even if that's the case, the end of the week is very uncertain according to the BBC / MET Office, could become very warm from the south..I hope. The Gfs 12z won't decide it either way, more runs needed.

Edited by Karl.

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Absolutely typical, possibly the most eagerly awaited runs of the summer and wz crashes, you really couldn't make it up!

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14 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

Looking at the 12 GFS out to T+60 I think it's heading towards a less favourable weekend, especially across the N, with everything shaping up to be a couple hundred miles farther south. Still nowhere near as grim as yesterdays 00 however, probably somewhere between that and todays 06. 

Any changes look minor

00z                                                                06z                                                              12z

gfs-0-78.png?0gfs-0-72.png?6gfs-0-66.png?12

If we look at the 1020 line running SW to NE its position through southern Scotland hasn't changed much in the 12 hours between the 3 updates

Edited by Summer Sun

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO is also delayed this afternoon

It's because most people take the UKMO global data from the NCEP servers as well. 

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Its going to be interesting to see what the models have for Saturday rain wise when they get back up and running

The 06z GFS shows a mainly dry day for England and Wales

gfs-2-102.png?6gfs-2-108.png?6

The beeb showed rain last night albeit with uncertainies

CnLV9LZWYAE_axn.jpg

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Whilst GFS and UKMO are having issues this afternoon GEM is updating and it shows high pressure building from the south keeping the unsettled weather further north though this doesn't rule out the possibility of some showers in the south on Saturday

gem-0-72.png?12gem-0-102.png?12gem-0-120.png?12

gem-2-72.png?12gem-2-102.png?12gem-2-120.png?12

Edited by Summer Sun

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arpegeuk-41-98-0_cak5.png

The French models have updated and looking very nice for Saturday afternoon - they also show a very narrow band of possible precip moving south during the afternoon - but so faint and narrow, not likely to disturb sunbathing plans, if you are lucky to findcloud free conditions.

arpegeuk-38-98-0_zgu0.png

Edited by Nouska
Images did not imbed properly first time.

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2 minutes ago, Nouska said:

The French models have updated and looking very nice for Saturday afternoon - they also show a very narrow band of possible precip moving south during the afternoon - but so faint and narrow, not likely to disturb sunbathing plans.

Where is that band positioned if you dont mind me asking!!

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4 minutes ago, Nouska said:

The French models have updated and looking very nice for Saturday afternoon - they also show a very narrow band of possible precip moving south during the afternoon - but so faint and narrow, not likely to disturb sunbathing plans.

Yes a decaying front sounds about right Nouska- don't think at this stage it will amount to much hopefully..

And the problem must be pretty bad its now gone 6oclock and still no blinking GFS/UKMO grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Edited by northwestsnow

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54 minutes ago, shaky said:

Where is that band positioned if you dont mind me asking!!

Here's the run for you to have a look. :)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=330

Edit for question:

Still so much chopping and changing at 96 hours - anyone shed some light on the aspect that is causing all the difficulties in the modelling at such short range?

Edited by Nouska

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UKMO okay for far South Weekend but possibly unsettled Midlands North

UW96-21.GIF?12-19

 

A bit disappointing.

Edited by Mucka

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2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

UKMO okay for far South Weekend but possibly unsettled Midlands North

UW96-21.GIF?12-19

 

A bit disappointing.

Yes a very disappointing ukmo run for those further north and the 144 doesn't look great with the trough in the Atlantic looking menacing.For sure a big backwards step from the 0z run.

Still only one run mind..

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GFS also struggling as shown by the differences between runs in modelling of the jetstream for next weeks prospects

12z heading North 

gfs-5-126.png?12

06z Heading south 

gfs-5-132.png?6

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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

GFS also struggling as shown by the differences between runs in modelling of the jetstream for next weeks prospects

12z heading North 

gfs-5-126.png?12

06z Heading south 

gfs-5-132.png?6

Yes i did mention this morning there is so much chopping and changing i was not going to get carried away, the meto update today was a kick in the wotsits as far as i'm concerned, it seems whether its getting cold in winter or warmth in summer is a thankless task .

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes i did mention this morning there is so much chopping and changing i was not going to get carried away, the meto update today was a kick in the wotsits as far as i'm concerned, it seems whether its getting cold in winter or warmth in summer is a thankless task .

Yeah it is a long time since we had any kind of real Summer up North.

The CET figures can be a bit misleading in that regard as they have not been cold but they have been perpetually unsettled.

Fingers crossed for eCM to be more in line with GFS 12z or hopefully even a little better.

There may be no plume in the 12z but at least it offers something more settled with pleasant temps for next week.

gfs-0-156.png?12

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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Yeah it is a long time since we had any kind of real Summer up North.

The CET figures can be a bit misleading in that regard as they have not been cold but they have been perpetually unsettled.

Fingers crossed for eCM to be more in line with GFS 12z or hopefully even a little better.

There may be no plume in the 12z but at least it offers something more settled with pleasant temps for next week.

gfs-0-156.png?12

I'm with you mucker, i have shared the same dreadful summers and winters over recent years so i feel your pain, fwiw the ukmo 12z looks very much like a reflection of the meto update to me, ie pretty god damn dreadful for us, we can only hope ecm differs from that ukmo run.

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To me....to you.....to me!

very hit and miss with these runs. Ukmo very disappointing tonight, gfs not bad, but a big backward step from the 00z again! Who knows what we're going to get!

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6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

To me....to you.....to me!

very hit and miss with these runs. Ukmo very disappointing tonight, gfs not bad, but a big backward step from the 00z again! Who knows what we're going to get!

That made me LOL :D

Yes, GFS is decent, ukmo is defo a bit meh, we wait ecm , from behind the sofa :)

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Downgrade on the ECM 12z too this evening. Cooler air quickly filtering south again and the ridge looking less potent and susceptible to troughing from the north again. Sigh. Was too good to be true again wasn't it.

Still time for change but were heading towards the downgrades of yesterday again.

Edited by Costa Del Fal

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Pretty amazing that ECM has joined the others in downgrading again! What's causing such massive swings between runs...

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