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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

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The Gfs 12z op run gives us something to look forward to later next week including the weekend into the early part of week 2 with high pressure building in with plenty of sunshine and becoming warmer with temps into the low to mid 20's celsius...looks good and who knows, the reality could be even better :-)

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Edited by Frosty.

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12 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Must be looking at different charts....They are shocking for heat....The ECM is trough trough trough.....and we move into late July

 

 

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Are you ignoring the warm spell later next week that the models are showing ? Looks like next weekend will be warm and sunny with potential to become very warm for a while, even the met office see very warm potential. :-)

Edited by Frosty.

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Here you go Frosty an anticyclone as promised.

gfs_t2maf_slp_eur2_27.png

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4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Here you go Frosty an anticyclone as promised.

gfs_t2maf_slp_eur2_27.png

But you had to show a midnight chart didn't you:D

Day times look very pleasant next weekend

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12_195_mslp500.png

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The Gem 12z shows high pressure building in late next week and as the high migrates to the NE we draw warmer and more humid air up from the near continent with mid 20s celsius becoming quite widespread but also an increasing chance of thundery showers breaking out between very warm spells of sunshine.

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24 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

But you had to show a midnight chart didn't you:D

Day times look very pleasant next weekend

 

 

Well smack my wrists. Here's the 18z :shok:

gfs_t2maf_slp_eur2_30.png

Edited by knocker

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59 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Must be looking at different charts....They are shocking for heat....The ECM is trough trough trough.....and we move into late July

 

 

image.png

No, you are looking at charts from a different time slot from Frosty, as is plain. He is referring to a later time frame.

Given that you must know this, I really question the motivation of those posters that seek to mislead people as to what the models are showing. Why do you do it? 

Edited by Weather Boy

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9 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well smack my wrists. Here's the 18z :shok:

gfs_t2maf_slp_eur2_30.png

That's more like it Malcolm, show some daytime warmth instead of the middle of a cool night.:good:

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gfs 12z is looking hot next weekend as we get a taste of the Continental climate and into the following week too. Still plenty of time for it to evolve into something better, I will contain any excitement for a few more runs as most of the heat will probably end up being shunted off eastwards .  The Azores HP cant give up though I just hope it keeps on nudging northwards until it pushes the current pattern out of place.

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22 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

No, you are looking at charts from a different time slot from Frosty, as is plain. He is referring to a later time frame.

Given that you must know this, I really question the motivation of those posters that seek to mislead people as to what the models are showing. Why do you do it? 

Well said Weather Boy :- )

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Sticking to the reliable time-frame ECM shows high pressure moving in towards the end of next week

00z

Recm1201.gif

12z

Recm1201 12.gif

A nice improvement on the 00z :)

 

 

Edited by Summer Sun

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Some differences between the models around day 5 at the moment, seems to be a recurring trend.

GFS/UKMO/ECM

gfs-0-120.png?12   UW120-21.GIF?09-19   ECM1-120.GIF?09-0

The UKMO really makes a lot of that cold pool to our north causing the Azores ridge to really struggle to build in, the GFS is similar to the ECM but the ECM shows a much better set up to really build the ridge into the UK compared to the GFS as there is interaction between the Atlantic trough and the cold pooling to our north which allows the jet to drive north east and importantly north of the UK. The GFS doesn't have this interaction and hence is slower to build the high in.

Day 6 charts

gfs-0-144.png?12   UW144-21.GIF?09-19   ECM1-144.GIF?09-0

The GFS is still pretty cool with a light north/north westerly, the UKMO looks pretty meh but the ECM is fine, sunny and increasingly warm for most away from the far north west. I would say that the GFS and ECM hold promise for something a little more than a brief warmer and drier spell.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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Much better from ECM in the reliable time-frame this evening

 

Recm1441 12.gif

Hello high pressure :)

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4 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Why was it?

Because you ignored the warm spell the op runs and ens mean is showing later next week into week 2...why?

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1 minute ago, Greenland1080 said:

Because in the reliable as Winter people are told to keep to its trough nothing great an only do we see something warm in the realms of fi...you Frosty should realise that...lots of straw clutching going on in this thread at moment for heat.

There is no straw clutching from me, the models show a warm up and high pressure in under a week which is semi reliable timeframe, to ignore that completely is very misleading.

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The winter crew think they are justified in looking for a snowflake at T+eternity so I reckon the summer crew can look a few days ahead for warmth: not a lot to ask for considering what has been so far.

There is very little in the way of above average 850 temps showing anyway but even average will feel like a heatwave after midweek!

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If ECM is correct next weekend will be settled and becoming increasingly warm

Recm1682.gif

Remember you don't need excessively high 850's to get temperatures into the mid 20's they'll respond very nicely if its sunny

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The ecm forecast surface max temps for 18z Sunday south of a line Bristol to the Wash are 24C

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Quote

 

Lovely ecm tonight - generally settled and warm and a far cry from what the meto are predicting!

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I think the Ecm 12z would bring temps into the  low 80's F across the s / se at the end of next week...anyway, nice warm charts..:D

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Here's the GEFS 12z mean for late next week including the weekend, we would see temps into the mid 20's celsius across the south of the UK. High pressure and warmth for a change! :- )

Very good agreement across the models for summery weather beyond the upcoming but short-lived cooler showery blip.

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3 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Reliable looks average

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It's ok Greenland, you keep showing the worst charts and deny anything warmer is coming..:closedeyes:

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2 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

I'm just quoting the reliable timeframe that's all

GFS reliable looks average

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And a few days later it's warm and settled with low to mid 20s celsius..can't wait.

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