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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

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Good Evening All! The Ecm throws up a lovely Spanish Plume this time next week with heat and humidity and Big Thunderstorms ! Its a shame its out to the unreliable timeframe!!!

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An off topic post has been removed.

As AJ requested earlier please avoid postings without any relevant discussions on the charts.Please use those other threads for general chat.

Thanks all.:).

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Looking at the ECM ens it could get very warm next weekend in especially so in the south and SE close to 30c?

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The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows summery weather arriving later next week, at least across England and Wales with high pressure building in across the south and gradually increasing warmth, mid to upper 20s celsius for the s / e...another encouraging mean tonight as it has been in recent days but this is the best yet!:)

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Edited by Frosty.

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I just went through the GEFS 12z perturbations and some of them show a marked pattern change to summery weather, we have an epic plume (p5) which is similar to the Ecm 12z op and many anticyclonic scenarios just beyond the day 10  period so I'm hoping the mean keeps improving during the days ahead, as things stand the gefs / ecm 12z mean tonight is encouraging for warmth and high pressure towards the end of next week! :- )

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Both the ecm and NOAA have ridging for next weekend with the ecm moving it east by Monday and a return to the familiar westerly regime and temps nearer normal. In the ext period we are back to the familiar story of LP to the NW and HP to the SW with the westerly upper flow and the usual tendency to a N/S split.

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How warm it may get next weekend is up for grabs depending on the extent north and movement of this transient ridge. At the moment around 25C.

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There's an opportunity in the next two weeks for summer to turn itself around. It's clear to me that the Azores High is trying to push north - it will bit by bit nudge the pattern slightly north over the next week, and the result looks like a possible hot weekend for the 15th/16th July. But if this nudging of the pattern continues in the week after, we may end up with an extended hot spell for the final third of July. Any let-up in the Atlantic train and I'd say this is a given. The GEFS were keen on this yesterday and this morning, but the 12Z found a little more oomph in the Atlantic and therefore a continuation of the current pattern. Let's hope the Azores High can make this breakthrough while it still has the appetite!

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Today quite a warm and humid day for many in the south with rain more likely N.Wales and northern England.

The story of the week from the GFS. Low pressure moves in over the weekend and moves slowly east  but leaves the UK under it’s influence until Thursday, most of the time in a cool north west wind bringing showery rain conditions to most at times.

Thursday to Sunday sees a ridge moving slowly east so drier and more settled for the latter part of the week before the Atlantic moves in once more.

Temps below average but becoming average by Sunday.

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The GEFS 00z mean is looking good for later next week with high pressure building in across the south bringing dry, sunny and warmer weather, at least across England and Wales but possibly further north too.:)

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The Ukmo 00z ends on a High note, next weekend could be dry, warm and sunny...speaking of warmth, parts of the southeast could reach 26/27c 80F this afternoon which would make it the warmest day of July so far. :- )

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The ecm not that dissimilar to the GFS until the end of the week. It brings the ridge in a tad earlier during the early hours of Weds but very briefly as the next lot of fronts arrive by midday Thursday. The next ridge quickly follows and moves east over the weekend before the next fronts arrive late Sunday. Temps cool at first but improving by the weekend to above average, perhaps 25C and maybe some thundery outbreaks, At this range this rather precise scenario is liable to change.

Both the GFS and ecm runs epitomise the current upper air pattern.

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Edited by knocker

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The Gem 00z turns into a peach of a run from later next week onwards as high pressure builds in and hangs around, becoming much warmer with plenty of sunshine and temps into the mid 20's celsius, perhaps upper 20's c. :- )

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Some pretty cool air shown for the time of year Thurs/Fri as a slack Northerly pushes South, Giving scope for ground frosts for parts of the Highlands and cold enough upper air for some fleeting snow showers over the highest Scottish Hills.

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Edited by Polar Maritime

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The EPS is showing no significant change to the overall upper pattern out to day 14. There is a brief warm spell for the south next weekend as the ridge traverses east but we are soon back into the cooler air

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Edited by knocker

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The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows a considerable warm up later next week as high pressure builds in following the cooler, showery blip with temps rising into the mid to upper 20's celsius with increasing humidity as we import continental warmth which would lead to a thundery breakdown..:)

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1 hour ago, Polar Maritime said:

Some pretty cool air shown for the time of year Thurs/Fri as a slack Northerly pushes South, Giving scope for ground frosts for parts of the Highlands and cold enough upper air for some fleeting snow showers over the highest Scottish Hills.

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but then we have things warming up after, and hopefully sunny, but you wouldn't post these charts

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The Rise in pressure and warm up for next weekend well brought out on these ensembles:)

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Edited by Matthew Wilson

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The GFS 6z is certainly showing a warmer more settled weekend on the cards, With temps hovering around avg in the South touching 24/25c in some spots, While the North/N/W Scotland holds on the the unsettled/cooler weather as a front pushes S/E on Sunday.

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The extended outlook into July continues the theme of Summer 2016 so far..

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Edited by Polar Maritime

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The GEFS 6z mean is looking nice later next week and especially next weekend with high pressure, sunshine and warmth. Further ahead its a waxing and waning azores high in response to the lower heights to the nw / n but the south of the uk should at least see some fine and warm spells...hopefully we will see the long - wave pattern change during late July and through august..keep hoping!

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Edited by Frosty.

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On 08/07/2016 at 10:51, Tamara said:

August is yet another summer month,  and it also involves changes to the long-wave pattern which might assist some improvements (based on the assumption the summer rut pattern persists). But that is too far off and will take care of itself as time comes rather closer.

Fingers crossed Tamara:)

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Looking at the GEFS 6z perturbations shows emphatic support for high pressure to be centred over the uk or very close by next weekend, there are some intensifying anticyclones shown which would prolong the settled increasingly warm spell well into week 2..it's looking good as things stand. :- ) 

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Edited by Frosty.

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Looking further ahead (day 10 onwards) the GEFS 6z perturbations still shows some nice anticyclonic scenarios but less than at T+168 hours but as I mentioned earlier, this is due to the waxing and waning of the Azores high in response to occasionally lowering heights to the nw / n but it's fickle in that range and could easily improve through late July into early August hopefully!

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Some good news from the Jet stream charts, Tuesday then Saturday. At least we haven't got it running straight across the Uk. Saturday is more of what we want to see, on the right side for warmth:)

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GFS is the best for some settled weather in the t144 range

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UKMO

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Beyond this GFS keeps the high with temperatures into the 20's

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Edited by Summer Sun

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