Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Frosty.]

The easiest way to describe the Gfs 12z op run is ridge, trough, ridge, trough etc... right through the run with a mix of cool, average and warm temps, some dry and sunny weather, a lot of heavy showers with thunder and spells of persistent rain with the best of any fine and warm weather across the south / southeast. This saturday looks unsettled for most of the n / w but largely fine and warm in the s /se with 25 celsius as an unusually deep depression heading past NW Scotland scoops up air from more of a tropical source rather than Atlantic but we all turn cooler and fresher on sunday from the west with sunshine and a few showers, much cooler and more showery across the northwest of the UK, then a cool showery spell early next week followed by a transient midweek ridge before another spell of very unsettled and windy weather later in the week but at least there is some high pressure at times.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows encouraging signs that the Azores high will ridge across the south of the UK at times during the next few weeks, it even occurs for a time next week so the south at least wouldn't be cool and unsettled for the whole of next week unlike the n / w but it's week 2 when the high ridges in with more success bringing increasingly fine and warmer weather, at least across southern uk.

[Frosty.]

Ok who wants high pressure?

The GEFS 12z perturbations have quite a lot of it, there's a fair amount of dross too but we know all about dross so far this summer don't we, and I'm not just talking about Roy's useless England football team!  I've chosen two timeframes in Fi for the obvious reason that we pretty much know that at least most of next week looks cool & unsettled but being the optimist that I am, there are some nice charts here that I wanted to share with those of you who don't access the charts and hopefully one of them will give us the summer most of us crave...p4 would be nice!

 

[Frosty.]

This evening's Ecm 12z won't win any awards apart from the weather equivalent of the golden raspberry movie awards they host in Hollywood. It's an unsettled and generally cool run post the weekend with only the most fleeting ridges in the south but generally it's a shocker for the height of summer, I've said that too often since June 1st... hope our luck changes soon!

[knocker]

No particular change with tonight's anomalies so I'll just settle for the ecm 6-10 850mb temp anomaly.

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, knocker said:

No particular change with tonight's anomalies so I'll just settle for the ecm 6-10 850mb temp anomaly.

No wonder us summer heat fans have the blues, it's bound to change at some point though and I canny wait!

[Frosty.]

Signs of improvement towards the end of the Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight with next weeks trough gradually being replaced by a ridge of high pressure extending across southern areas with the weather in the south becoming drier, brighter and warmer, yes it's crumbs but at least it's something.

[William of Walworth]

I'll take the odd crumb. Some runs have been hinting at something of a N/S divide towards the end of next week, with possibilities of some HP influence (I go no further) in more Southern areas towards next weekend. Other runs, particularly the ECM 12z horrorshow, showed show scant hope even of that. Lets hope with further runs over coming days, that the trough retreats ever so gently Northwards or NorthWestwards. That's happened before at this time of year <strawclutching!>

[knocker]

No obvious movement with the GEFS anomalies this morning from the general picture all the anomalies have been showing for days.

Let us pray with Sidney

[mb018538]

I agree knocker, not much to get cheery about....the crumbs from a couple of days ago seem to have been swept away, and we're just left with an unsettled picture out past mid-month. Looks like this summer is just passing us by as completely unremarkable. Could we see no 30c at all this year??

[stodge]

Morning all

I think the GFS 00Z OP is a step forward this morning with increasingly settled conditions likely past mid month as the Azores HP becomes more influential.

Mercifully, none of that horrible heat and humidity but certainly pleasantly warm especially in the south:

Low-res continues to tip the balance away from unsettled toward something drier with more HP influence.

GEM offers a similar promise for mid month:

 

[knocker]

No significant changes with the EPS this morning. I promise I'll swap the blue crayon for red come December time. Scouts honour.

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

5 hours ago, mb018538 said:

I agree knocker, not much to get cheery about....the crumbs from a couple of days ago seem to have been swept away, and we're just left with an unsettled picture out past mid-month. Looks like this summer is just passing us by as completely unremarkable. Could we see no 30c at all this year??

if we don't see 30c this year then its a bit of a long time since there was a year without a 30c, even 27 is looking impossible at this rate.

see here >>> http://www.trevorharley.com/trevorharley/weather_web_pages/hottest_days.htm

 

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

No significant changes with the EPS this morning. I promise I'll swap the blue crayon for red come December time. Scouts honour.

 

I thought you said you wouldn't be posting in here during the winter? Oh dear, more woodshed jokes and red crayons...anyway, role on summer

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, 40*C said:

if we don't see 30c this year then its a bit of a long time since there was a year without a 30c, even 27 is looking impossible at this rate.

see here >>> http://www.trevorharley.com/trevorharley/weather_web_pages/hottest_days.htm

 

How about we show some realism?

It is the 7th July=24+31 days of meteorological summer let alone the early part of September.

Granted none of the models, be they synoptic or anomaly type show any sign yet of any major heat for any length of time. The time to make such statement might be more realistic in mid August perhaps?

some facts on this page

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate-extremes/#?tab=climateExtremes

Edited July 7, 2016 by johnholmes

[phil nw.]

Just one fax chart for Sunday from the 00z run underlines how poor the pattern is currently

certainly not what most would like in mid-July.

 

 

Edited July 7, 2016 by phil nw.

[Summer Sun]

A better run from GFS this afternoon longer term with high pressure starting to shows its hand more - not completely settled but better than of late

Edited July 7, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Matthew.]

Yes the ensembles looking like the temperatures may pick up too

[Man With Beard]

Absolutely right to highlight that Matthew - there's a bigger and bigger chance growing of a window of summer by the end of next week. All day, the GEFS members have been pushing a decent ridge for the UK between T200 and T250. Currently, at least 15 out of the 21 members are high pressure dominated by 16th July (cut that to 12 for the north)

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

4 hours ago, johnholmes said:

How about we show some realism?

It is the 7th July=24+31 days of meteorological summer let alone the early part of September.

Granted none of the models, be they synoptic or anomaly type show any sign yet of any major heat for any length of time. The time to make such statement might be more realistic in mid August perhaps?

some facts on this page

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate-extremes/#?tab=climateExtremes

And do you blame me? And if its realism your after then realism tells me August Is becoming more of a autumnal month than a summer month, bearing in mind la nina picks up this August I think its safe to say we may not see any heat at all. Hope I'm wrong then I'll eat my hat just as long as its made of ice cream!!  j

[phil nw.]

The 12z runs continue to model a moisture laden westerly pattern dominating through the next week.Some transient ridging from the Azores high will bring occasional brief drier and warmer interludes to some parts in the south but really it is a poor July pattern.Added to the fact that it cools off a little more for a time as the winds turn more west/north west as low pressure moves towards Scandinavia.Mid to high teens is very disappointing as expected best maximums.  

Some day 5 images from GFS,UKMO and ECM

So with the jet path across our latitude we continue into next week with a succession of weather fronts moving across the country from time to time during the next few days.

As others have pointed out maybe something better for week 2?

GFS mean at day 10

shows a slight move north of the Azores high but at this stage not enough to expect a big switch to widespread Summery weather.Better for the south maybe but we are still in a moist westerly pattern with the probability of cloud and rain or drizzle,especially over western and northern areas,at times. 

.

 

Edited July 7, 2016 by phil nw.

[Frosty.]

Well this looks very encouraging from later next week on the GEFS 12z mean with a strong build of the Azores high (ridge) across the southern half of the UK which would change the cool unsettled spell early next week into something warmer and more settled with plenty of sunshine, at least further south, it's what this summer is crying out for, some warmth and sun.. there then follows a more changeable blip but then another surge from the Azores high later in the run!

[Summer Sun]

This is encouraging from ECM we've waited a LONG time for summer to arrive will our patience be rewarded next week? I jolly well hope so!

[Frosty.]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

This is encouraging from ECM we've waited a LONG time for summer to arrive will our patience be rewarded next week? I jolly well hope so!

Yes we have Gavin, hopefully all our posting of anticyclonic charts in FI will bear fruit for the majority on here who want to see a fine spell which lasts longer than 1 day!

[Frosty.]

Check out these GEFS 12z perturbations, most of them show warm anticyclonic conditions by day 8 / 9 onwards for several days, this is by far the strongest support so far for a more summery spell, at least across the southern half of the UK but some of them show a nationwide settled spell in the not too distant future..  very encouraging IMO.