Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[knocker]

Both the EPS and GEFs anomalies are tending to weaken the trough at the end of the run but the former less so than previously so I'm back to a watching brief on that.

Edited July 23, 2016 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

Well this morning's GFS is pretty much the same until Sunday, when the Azores High finds some renewed strength and pushes the trough away from many parts, particularly in the south - leading to a further warm three days over most of England. So still a chance that the "unsettled" spell may be kept quite short away from Scotland/N Ireland

Edited July 24, 2016 by Man With Beard

[knocker]

Today  rain spreading NE during the day leaving the south and East Anglia dry and the warmest.

The overall theme of this morning's GFS is remaining unsettled with the continuing tendency for systems to track SW-NE thus a sliding scale of precipitation and temperatures with the latter alternating around the average.Although from mid week until Sunday the UK is under the influence of the low pressure to the north thus a showery NW flow.

But hey towards the end of the run the Azores HP becomes more dominant in mid Atlantic. Could the anomalies b right?

Edited July 24, 2016 by knocker

[Matthew.]

ECM 0z wants to bring that suppressed atmosphere upon us, doesn't look as cool for next weekend as it did though.

GFS has a peach for the 7th of August for those in hope of a decent August.

 

Edited July 24, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[Frosty.]

The week ahead looks cooler and fresher with sunshine and showers, some heavy and thundery with temps ranging from high teens to low 20's celsius from northwest to southeast and it looks like a period of trough domination for short to medium range, especially further n / nw but longer range, through early August the GEFS 00z mean shows the Azores high building NE...so, hopefully the last month of this meteorological summer will have some fine and warm weather, at least further south.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Next week don't look to bad in the south, yes showers around, but we need rain! The ground down here is like rock!

It certainly is a North/south split next week as the case most times.

But certainly some more enjoyable temps not to hot not to cold!

Edited July 24, 2016 by Polar Maritime
Corrected error.

[knocker]

The ecm not unexpectedly also unsettled with periods of showers and rain particularly from Weds onwards when low pressure tends to dominate rather more.Temps becoming cool by the weekend with the usual latitudinal variation.

[Polar Maritime]

A cooler week than what we have endured coming up. With weak fronts pushing in off the Atlantic, Giving showers or longer spells of rain at times with temps in the mid to high teens during the day and down to single digits at night especially for the N/W so much better for sleeping in. The far S/E holds on to the warmer temps in the low 20's..

 

Edited July 24, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[stodge]

Morning all

The 06Z is rolling out but it's Sunday so why should I get up early ?

The 00Z wasn't that inspiring until the far reaches of FI when lowering Greenland heights and a northward moving jet bring the Azores HP back in but that's a long way off and we need to see that establish as a firm route forward:

Here's the 00Z OP at T+192: - hardly disastrous and the south will be okay but it's not much cop for those further north to be honest:

 

ECM 00Z at the same time:

Again, the key here is or are the Greenland heights which despite some Azores ridging keeps the jet quite a way south and the Atlantic very much in charge:

GEM 00Z at the same time:

No real need to comment...

[Summer Sun]

A few rouge members take the 850's above 20c as we move into August on the 00z ensembles

[knocker]

Still December is looking promising and Sidney won't have to store too many nuts.

[damianslaw]

I'm  dipping in and out of model watching at present - something I tend do during the height of summer. What do we have in store? - a rather typical summer pattern, weak trough activity from the west with a jetstream positioned in the wrong place to deliver any sustained dry settled conditions - average temperatures, NW seeing the wettest, cloudiest and coolest conditions, the SE the warmest, sunniest and driest. A not very inspiring outlook for what is traditionally the warmest part of the year - rather dissapointing in the main, but at least it looks much better than this time last year, when many places saw their coldest wettest end to July in a long time..

Looking further ahead - until we lose strong heights over Greenland we are at the mercy of the jet and its interaction with the azores high, a weak jet should enable stronger azores high ridge, just like we have seen this week, a stronger jet and its unsettled in the main - as we are about to experience this week, time isn't on our side though, August traditionally sees a stronger resurgence of the jetstream, we shall see. I'm not a fan of August really.

[March]

4 hours ago, knocker said:

Still December is looking promising and Sidney won't have to store too many nuts.

Wouldn't be surprised lol. 

[mhielte]

Encouraging FI trends continue on the latest GFS operational, with pressure once again falling over Greenland as we head into August. Let's compare the scenario with next week...

High pressure over Greenland keeps the Azores high away from the UK and we are stuck under cool northerly winds with temperatures a little below average and showery outbreaks of rain.

Contrast that with August 6th, and we have lower pressure over Greenland and a significant surge of high pressure over the UK, keeping things settled and dry with temperatures slightly above average. 

Of course, we can't pin any real detail to range that far away, but the right building blocks are in place to gradually shake off (or at least dilute) this stubborn Greeny high/NW-SE split pattern. I do urge some caution however, as I've perused the GFS and ECM recently and occasionally I've seen lowering heights over Greenland disappear on subsequent runs; the same thing could happen again owing to the cruel nature of FI cherry picking!

Next step is to keep an eye out for good cluster grouping for higher pressure (particularly for more northern areas of the UK) on the ensembles for the early August period 

Edited July 24, 2016 by mhielte

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 hours ago, knocker said:

Still December is looking promising and Sidney won't have to store too many nuts.

Aye, January looks a bit parky though 

[Summer Sun]

ECM gives another short lived plume for early August

[I remember Atlantic 252]

41 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM gives another short lived plume for early August

be interesting SS, wouldn't be surprised to see it come off, Tues and Wed again, opposite of a northerly toppler, which commonly occurs Fri to Sun, or Sat to Mon

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z never looks terribly cool in the south, max temps should reach at least 20c each day in southern areas and considerably higher later in the run when 30+celsius is again indicated. Looking at the week ahead, the south should be drier, brighter and still pleasantly warm with sunny spells during the next few days, just a few sharp showers dotted around with the most unsettled and cooler conditions further n / nw but we all briefly turn more unsettled as the week goes on due to a trough to the northwest / north of the BI but then pressure rises from the south across southern areas by the end of the week which leads to another burst of summery weather, especially across the s / e.

[knocker]

Nothing on the anomalies this evening to indicate any significant pattern change within 14 days, Still some indication at the end of the period of weakening of the trough and height rises to the west so at the moment this remains the best hope of a period of some more settled weather As always this isn't all doom and gloom although those in the north and west can be forgiven for thinking so as there will sunny periods particularly in the south east. So the rather boring refrain continues with a general westerly flow with the detailed weather dependent on the phasing of the LP/HP interaction, albeit with a brief sojourn at the end of the week when a slow moving low pressure system introduces a north westerly showery regime. Temps still varying around the average with the usual N/S bias.

 

Edited July 24, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

Today

Much cooler and fresher with a quite marked NW.SE temp bias. Some showers around mainly concentrated in the NW and Scotland where they could be heavy and thundery.

The latest GFS offering. The week generally dominated by low pressure in a slack westerly flow which results in little in the way of concentrated rain belts but a showery regime in what becomes a NW flow with LP residing to the NE. This does eventually gives away to brief tridging before the next Atlantic system arrives by Tuesday. Temps generally on the cool side of average.

The jet noticeable picks up some oomph the beginning of next week.

Edited July 25, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm generally similar to the GFS A snapshot at T144 which also shows the transient ridge to the west and then the end of the run.

[stodge]

Morning all

Once again, the 06Z rolls out as I get time to comment...

Looking back at the 00Z OP runs, nothing very inspiring for those looking for prolonged settled weather and heat.

GFS first for early next week:

After an unsettled weekend, a brief col which should allow for a couple of days of fine weather before the next Atlantic system shows its hand. Signs of a prolonged settled spell at the end of next week seem to have faded in favour of a continuation of the basic summer theme - not too bad in the south, not too clever further north.

ECM 00Z at the same time:

Not too different really - a weak ridge between Atlantic systems but note the continuing heights over Greenland.

GEM probably the pick of the bunch this morning:

Not quite sure about this evolution but it transfers a lobe of the Azores HP across southern Britain into Europe while maintaining the ridge so settled conditions for the south with a stronger jet to the north albeit with strong Greenland heights so I'm not quite sure about this.

As ever, more runs are needed.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

This mornings gfs 06z has its eyes on a few hot days as we enter August. Temps reaching 30c in the South then the heat extending further North.

[Summer Sun]

21 minutes ago, 40*C said:

This mornings gfs 06z has its eyes on a few hot days as we enter August. Temps reaching 30c in the South then the heat extending further North.

Indeed, so it certainly can't be ruled out as the ensembles from TWO show

 

[mhielte]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Indeed, so it certainly can't be ruled out as the ensembles from TWO show

 

It's encouraging to see when you compare these ensembles to previous runs which had a lone blowtorch run. Now we see a little more support for some early August heat and hopefully the trend will continue.

It's worth bearing in mind now to not lose sight of this potential given we are likely to see our fair share of dodgy outputs before any heat does come along (indeed, IF it does). One downside of frequent output is we can lose sight of the bigger picture as we focus on each individual run. I was guilty of this a little this morning when I sighed at the 00z runs! 

We'll see what the 12z op gives us in a few hours time