Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Man With Beard]

What encourages me about the 12Zs is that both GFS and UKMO shift that trough a little further north. Today's GFS 12Z makes the best of the situation, yesterday's made the worst of it. Let's hope this keeps up.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

What encourages me about the 12Zs is that both GFS and UKMO shift that trough a little further north. Today's GFS 12Z makes the best of the situation, yesterday's made the worst of it. Let's hope this keeps up.

Yes, it could be those two models have picked up on a signal/trend away from the initial retrogression of the high - this prevents the high moving towards the UK getting pulled west and opening the door to the trough, obviously the meto are not counting this as the fav progression, we will see if there is any substance to it this evening, its quite early on in the runs so fingers crossed.

[Frosty.]

My impression of the GEFS 12z mean is that the south of the uk has Azores ridge influence throughout the next few weeks, the ridge ebbs and flows  but for spells of fine and warm weather the south is the place to be, it's less trough dominated than earlier runs although the south would occasionally join the north in having rain and showers with cooler temps but compared to the north of the uk it looks decent with temps around the average, sometimes warmer with temps into the mid 20's c but with cooler days too in the upper teens celsius...it's not bad though overall the further south you are.

[northwestsnow]

Not a bad ecm really, nothing majorly hot and nothing majorly cool, best way would be north south split, better in the south, cooler and wetter in the North.Not entirely sure where i would draw the dividing line though...

I will say it looked decent at 120 and then went jet streak crazy to 144, not sure this is a done deal yet, more runs needed..

[mb018538]

ECM isn't quite as good, more trough dominated than the other 2....more runs needed!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

ECM isn't quite as good, more trough dominated than the other 2....more runs needed!

Its not bad, certainly not as good as the other two but nothing horrendous in terms of the setup, standard north south split really, should be fine in you neck of the woods

[knocker]

And here it is Sid

The ecm has a frontal system swing through the UK on Sunday.and the UK remains under the influence of the low to the north until late Tuesday  when the Azores ridge briefly nudges into the south. This is quickly suppressed by a new low rushing in from the west which arrives with associated fronts on Thursday which influences affairs until the weekend. In summation unsettled with temps around average.

 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows a warm weekend coming up across the south of the uk under the Azores ridge with temps into the mid 20's celsius, perhaps upper 20's c further s / se and along with those respectable temps comes plenty of dry and sunny spells but also a chance of showery rain here and there, the north doesn't do badly either but temps rather lower. Into next week, it becomes cooler and fresher from the w / nw with a mix of sunshine and showers but a ridge of high pressure extends across the south with a few fine and pleasanrly warm day a between tues / thurs, the further south the better but staying more changeable further n / nw. It then becomes more generally cooler and showery from the northwest but the run ends with signs of improvement across the south.. it's changeable in a nutshell.

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, knocker said:

And here it is Sid

The ecm has a frontal system swing through the UK on Sunday.and the UK remains under the influence of the low to the north until late Tuesday  when the Azores ridge briefly nudges into the south. This is quickly suppressed by a new low rushing in from the west which arrives with associated fronts on Thursday which influences affairs until the weekend. In summation unsettled with temps around average.

 

Aye, its quite unsettled up north, looks generally reasonable across the south,and ends with the azores high well in control, not bad at all , nothing drastic on either end of the scale, i would imagine those across the lucky south will actually be happy by day 10 if that comes off..

Edited July 21, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Aye, its quite unsettled up north, looks generally reasonable across the south,and ends with the azores high well in control, not bad at all , nothing drastic on either end of the scale, i would imagine those across the lucky south will actually be happy by day 10 if that comes off..

Nothing to complain about temperature wise this weekend further south, 25-27c..nice...but next week it's changeable, not unsettled though.

[markyo]

1 minute ago, Karl. said:

Nothing to complain about temperature wise this weekend further south, 25-27c..nice...but next week it's changeable, not unsettled though.

 

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Aye, its quite unsettled up north, looks generally reasonable across the south,and ends with the azores high well in control, not bad at all , nothing drastic on either end of the scale, i would imagine those across the lucky south will actually be happy by day 10 if that comes off..

Lucky south? From what i've heard over the last few days while down there those actually working will not feel lucky at all! Was in Stratford today on way back up at a call,they had to shut the dental practice due to kit overheating,loss of days pay,not much love there for any heat at the moment.

[knocker]

Max temps at 18z on the ecm  for the weekend. Saturday the reasonable temps are SE of a line the Humber to Dorset with the highest 24-26C, Sunday confined east of a line Yorkshire to Sussex around 26C possible 28 in places. Monday down to 16C widely in the west and 12C in NE Scotland. More runs needed.

Edited July 21, 2016 by knocker

[Matthew.]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

Max temps at 18z on the ecm  for the weekend. Saturday the reasonable temps are SE of a line the Humber to Dorset with the highest 24-26C, Sunday confined east of a line Yorkshire to Sussex around 26C possible 28 in places. Monday down to 16C widely in the west and 12C in NE Scotland. More runs needed.

12c in NE Scotland I know they're use to cooler temps but thats something else. West pretty cool! Lets hope ECM improves tomorrow for 96.

[knocker]

15 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

12c in NE Scotland I know they're use to cooler temps but thats something else. West pretty cool! Lets hope ECM improves tomorrow for 96.

It's a pretty cool day down the whole of western Britain. Quite unsettled in fact.

 

Edited July 21, 2016 by knocker

[Cleeve Hill]

54 minutes ago, knocker said:

And here it is Sid

The ecm has a frontal system swing through the UK on Sunday.and the UK remains under the influence of the low to the north until late Tuesday  when the Azores ridge briefly nudges into the south. This is quickly suppressed by a new low rushing in from the west which arrives with associated fronts on Thursday which influences affairs until the weekend. In summation unsettled with temps around average.

 

Hello knocker

You and your "unsettled weather theme and temps about average" makes me wonder if your in northern Scotland, not balmy Cornwall.

youve been saying it for days/weeks but from where I am in Cheltenham it has been largely dry, pretty warm and decent hours of sunshine. It's rained this evening for the first time in weeks.

looking good again for the weekend and what I do notice all the time is air pressure is above 1012 mb so pretty much high pressure = settled weather. 

 

 

[northwestsnow]

I think, in fairness its very difficult to pin down the temps/conditions moving forward, there will be quite marked differences from region to region, the best way i would describe it is a north south split, essentially drier and warmer the further SE one goes.

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I think, in fairness 

In fairness to who?

It's a changeable outlook for all but south is best as one would expect.

[Frosty.]

27 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 the best way i would describe it is a north south split, essentially drier and warmer the further SE one goes.

This is the perfect summing up of what the latest model output blended together is showing for the rest of this week and for next week too.

[William of Walworth]

I've seen far less rough/broad output consensus between output updates than from today's recent ones.

 

(I'm ignoring those GEM ones that Frosty posted. Outliers!)

 

Before this, there's been much more day-to-day disagreement between the different ones IMO. There's also I think as much room for improvement (for summer lovers) as there is for HP influence waning.

 

I've not seen the runs properly for a little while, so the above is just my current opinion.

 

But I'm not seeing too many signs of washout causing trough domination for now. The oppositwe if anything ... FOR NOW!

[knocker]

1 hour ago, Cleeve Hill said:

Hello knocker

You and your "unsettled weather theme and temps about average" makes me wonder if your in northern Scotland, not balmy Cornwall.

youve been saying it for days/weeks but from where I am in Cheltenham it has been largely dry, pretty warm and decent hours of sunshine. It's rained this evening for the first time in weeks.

looking good again for the weekend and what I do notice all the time is air pressure is above 1012 mb so pretty much high pressure = settled weather. 

 

 

Well just looking at the ecm run in detail this evening the mobility is what stands out, to me anyway. Obviously within this mobility there is a marked N/S split occurring as the warm/cold phases pass through. Unless one does detailed analysis of all regions the semantic issues involved here will persist. Frankly the description of any particular run, if accurate, should cover it anyway.

Moving on to tonight's anomalies. Hmm looking pretty unsettled

There are some differences between the GEFs and ecm, Although they both have the upper low to the north the orientation is slightly different and the GEFS makes more of the ridging mid Atlantic which may explain why the det. model makes a bit more of the surface ridging than the ecm and the latter has a slightly cooler outcome.Ergo the N/S theme will continue withe the day to day weather dependent once again on the phasing of the LP/HP. To make one thing clear, just in case I'm misquoted heaven forbid, I'm not inferring trough domination or anything akin to it. It's a typical situation where you will get rainy and perhaps wind periods interspersed with quite pleasant sunny ones and this will have a N/S bias which I suspect I have mentioned before this evening. Temps still generally about average

In the 10-15 period the pattern is not significantly different although the EPS more aligned over the UK whereas the GEFS has it slightly east.

A request. If people think I'm misrepresenting the pattern description and/or individual runs including the charts I post then feel free to say so at the time rather than bringing it up later.

One other thing. Many of the comments on here are very short with no charts attached (Karl obviously excepted) so I'm at a loss how that coveys anything meaningful to the readers. Just my opinion of course

Edited July 21, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

I'm not seeing a washout but I'm not seeing a settled outlook either, the Ecm 12z ens mean looks best in the very short range with the warmest and driest conditions, especially further s / se but next week looks more influenced by a trough with sunny periods and heavy showers with thunder and probably a few longer spells of rain crossing the uk from west to east, however, there is some weak Azores ridging across the far south enabling some drier more settled days here and there...changeable probably best sums up the next ten days.

[on the coast]

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well just looking at the ecm run in detail this evening the mobility is what stands out, to me anyway. Obviously within this mobility there is a marked N/S split occurring as the warm/cold phases pass through. Unless one does detailed analysis of all regions the semantic issues involved here will persist. Frankly the description of any particular run, if accurate, should cover it anyway.

Moving on to tonight's anomalies. Hmm looking pretty unsettled

There are some differences between the GEFs and ecm, Although they both have the upper low to the north the orientation is slightly different and the GEFS makes more of the ridging mid Atlantic which may explain why the det. model makes a bit more of the surface ridging than the ecm and the latter has a slightly cooler outcome.Ergo the N/S theme will continue withe the day to day weather dependent once again on the phasing of the LP/HP. To make one thing clear, just in case I'm misquoted heaven forbid, I'm not inferring trough domination or anything akin to it. It's a typical situation where you will get rainy and perhaps wind periods interspersed with quite pleasant sunny ones and this will have a N/S bias which I suspect I have mentioned before this evening. Temps still generally about average

In the 10-15 period the pattern is not significantly different although the EPS more aligned over the UK whereas the GEFS has it slightly east.

A request. If people think I'm misrepresenting the pattern description and/or individual runs including the charts I post then feel free to say so at the time rather than bringing it up later.

One other thing. Many of the comments on here are very short with no charts attached (Karl obviously excepted) so I'm at a loss how that coveys anything meaningful to the readers. Just my opinion of course

I think the problem is your posts hint at a doom and gloom picture but in reality these are normal summer charts and many want 1976 as they want 63 in winter. There will always be better parts of the country to live in during summer and winter and these in turn will determine what weather you will normally tend to expect. 

[Frosty.]

Instead of criticising other people's posts, wouldn't it be better to offer your opinions on what the models are showing?

 

[knocker]

The GFS this morning

With an area of low pressure to the NW and HP to the SW Saturday looks like being quite a warm day with temps a little above average  until fronts associated with the low bring rain into Scotland and northern England on Sunday. Still warm and dry in Margate.

From then until Wednesday the low pressure meanders around to the north and  the Azores ridge waxes and wanes a tad so generally a N/S split with the showery rain confined to the north and drier and fairly pleasant in the south although temps are generally around average.

From here until the weekend the ridge recedes as the low pressure becomes more influential as a shortwave forming within it’s circulation  moves across Scotland into Scandinavia bringing wet conditions to the north, with the south remaining fairly dry, and eventually a NW airflow over the UK . As the perturbation moves away the ridge once again approaches from the south west but the temps for the weekend are depressed below average.

A pretty classic scenario within the current upper air pattern.

Edited July 22, 2016 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

Agree with pretty much all that knocks, ECM very similar, better for the south, worse further north in closer proximity to the trough waxing and waning north of scotland.

I will add the GEM, which is the kind of set up i was fearing, is very trough dominated and makes ecm/gfs look fabulous in comparison...

Looks like manchester might just be OK over the coming 4 or 5 days with the odd showers sunday afternoon but mainly dry and occasionally sunny with temps around 19 to 24,decent if not fantastic, London even better with temps widely 24 to 27 and very little in the way of precip so all in all, as has been suggested, very useable weather for southern UK, better the further south and east you go..

Edited July 22, 2016 by northwestsnow