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Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

GFS is a little better than the Euro but loses pretty quickly. The outlook to day 10 is cyclonic and given the potential for showers, probably fairly wet.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

well im not suprised to see blocking its not certain where blocking will situate but scandi into iceland,

maybe even a east based neg nao.

although not seeing nothing to extreme at the moment.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
48 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

well im not suprised to see blocking its not certain where blocking will situate but scandi into iceland,

maybe even a east based neg nao.

although not seeing nothing to extreme at the moment.

 

 

I'm afraid I'm not following that. I can't see any sign of blocking in the near future; on the contrary the pattern seems very mobile.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

From the  upper low (possible horror show) and ridge mid Atlantic on Wednesday to the westerly Atlantic regime.

ecm_eps_z500a_natl_6.pngecm_eps_z500a_natl_11.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

At least the northern heights weaken as time goes on. Now if we could just squeeze that trough back to centred over Iceland with a NE orientation, we could be in business!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 6z op run shows an increasingly cyclonic showery spell by early next week. The rest of today will be a mix of sunny spells and scattered heavy showers, similar tomorrow and bands of showers working across from southwest to northeast on sunday but still with some sunshine at times. Looking at temps, low 20's c today, locally 23 / 24c in the southeast which looks largely dry with hazy sunshine but temps a notch cooler tomorrow, around 20c 68f, another notch down on sunday, around 18c and that sets the tone next week as a trough swings SE right over the UK, next week shows widespread frequent heavy showers and thunderstorms but with pleasant sunny spells too and some areas, especially southern coastal counties could miss most of the downpours. Towards the end of next week the trough slowly fills in situ and the remains drifts NW with a weak ridge of high pressure building in which eventually kills off most of the showers risk. During week 2 the main thrust of the unsettled weather is further north as Atlantic systems brush across but with high pressure over the near continent influencing southern England bringing drier, sunnier and warmer conditions, towards the end of the run the south of the uk flirts with some very warm and humid continental air with thundery rain..there is a lot going on in the next few weeks!:)

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ukmaxtemp (2).png

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ukprec (3).png

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
23 hours ago, Frosty. said:

.. the models are agreed on a trough dominated unsettled showery mid June period but I still think the Azores high will build in towards end of June and last well into July

Yes as Singularity's post states we might start to see a meridianal pattern soon hopefully:) Zonal for now though.

Edited by Matthew Wilson
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Yes as Singularity's post states we might start to see a merodinial pattern soon hopefully:) Zonal for now though.

The long term signs are still there for a sw / ne aligned jet with increasing Azores high influence, especially across the southern half of the UK with increasingly warm and sunny conditions through late June into july according to the MO. Having read their update, I've noticed similarities with the Gfs 6z op run regarding the next few weeks. It does look like becoming drier and brighter towards the end of next week followed by a typical nw / se split but most of next week looks like a heavy thundery showers fest with sunny spells between.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GEM shows a rise in pressure at the end of next week if this were to happen parts of mainland Europe would see further heavy rain and potentially flooding with the ground so saturated in many areas

Rgem1921.gifRgem2161.gifRgem2401.gif

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
19 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GEM shows a rise in pressure at the end of next week if this were to happen parts of mainland Europe would see further heavy rain and potentially flooding with the ground so saturated in many areas

Rgem1921.gifRgem2161.gifRgem2401.gif

Yes Gavin it would be nice if the GEM op proves near the mark after a much cooler and unsettled week to come..GEM is certainly making more of that ridge at the end of next week-GFS looks much flatter.

A snapshot from the GFS on Tuesday typical of the coming few days with low pressure parked over the UK

tues.png

plenty of instabiilty with cold air aloft and daytime surface heating in the sunny periods at this time of year should hold some interest for storm lovers.

Signs that the UK trough will gradually fill at the end of the week with perhaps a brief looking ridge from the Azores.The current ens.output from the GFS doesn't point to anything more than that-day 10

gens-21-1-240 (1).png

with a move to a westerly type and a suppressed Azores high thereafter,more inclined to a nw/se setup perhaps. 

 

 

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
51 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GEM shows a rise in pressure at the end of next week if this were to happen parts of mainland Europe would see further heavy rain and potentially flooding with the ground so saturated in many areas

Rgem1921.gifRgem2161.gifRgem2401.gif

Incredible charts SS! If only:D Pressure of that Azores high is massive! We keep hoping for the last third though. P.s- if anyone has any links to how 1976, 95 summer set up regarding Tamara's post on Angular momentum etc i would gladly like to read. Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Fantastic post as usual Tamara!!:)

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

Tonights weather for the week ahead with Darren Bett has next weekend with another splat of LP replacing the current LP and a slight ridge of HP inbetween just for the SE only.    

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm, GEFS and NOAA anomalies(with a little poetic license) are still going for the transition to the westerly regime around the 18th with a slight digression on how much influence the Azores ridge will have regarding the N/S split. However it's quite short lived in any case.

ecm_eps_z500a_natl_11.pnggefs_z500a_eur_41.png

610day.03.gif814day.03.gif

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Great Yeldham, North Essex
  • Location: Great Yeldham, North Essex

Comparing the 18z to the 00z we see the Azores having a greater influence towards the end of next week across the south than was shown previously in this time frame giving a better medium term Outlook. However the 18z did go in the show a warmer end than the 00z.

airpressure.png

airpressure-1.png

Edited by fine wine
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Well a fairly slack and showery picture for the coming week as low pressure slowly passes through the UK.

ECM1-48.GIF?11-12   ECM1-96.GIF?11-12   ECM1-144.GIF?11-12

Temperatures look reasonable for most of the week though it looks likely that it will turn rather cool by Friday as the winds veer northerly.

From next weekend onward the models agree on a strengthening westerly jet which will tend to flatten the pattern somewhat, hopefully not before that Atlantic ridge settles over a good part of the UK to give a fine weekend. Looking at the ensembles there is no indication of anything noteworthy during the second half of June, more of a typical north/south split with temperatures near normal. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM shows high pressure starting to move up from the SW next weekend so we could see a reasonable weekend

Recm1681.gifRecm1921.gif

Beyond this the high never really leaves the south and it could edge northwards again at D10

Recm2161.gifRecm2401.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

It's nice to see a few more Low pressure markings over Greenland from the ECM on day 10. The High pressure to the south is an interesting development. I wonder how far north this will push although the Zonal Westerly component looks a strong challenge to overcome.

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Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
18 hours ago, Tamara said:

 

The hopefully rather better longer term prognosis has to be tempered by the fact that this next tropical wave is going to again meet resistance from increasing easterlies across the tropics as we head further and further through the ENSO transition towards Nina. Like the tide going out, each incoming wave likely to encroach less far than its predecessor, and that has continued potential implications for when, eventually, we get to the mid point of the summer and most especially beyond.

 

 

Does this imply an increasing likelihood of unsettled weather /troughing/mobile w'ly as the main summer pattern is set, meaning a decent August is once again less likely?

Edited by Uncle_Barty
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Definite improvements over the last day or two imho.

The Azores high is hopefully going to make a move, the latter charts on ecm hold a lot of promise moving forward - :)

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

As others have said, I too really like this mornings ECM in particular. By day 10, it definitely looks ripe to build high pressure in from the Azores, and there is finally a trough over Greenland and Iceland. GFS doesn't buy it, UKMO last night weren't keen either, but one to keep tabs on.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Ditto to all the above - the models are snatching out a nice two/three day drier spell next weekend, when a few days ago it didn't seem likely. Once again, the models have improved for us between T240 and T168. A good trend to have.

Not going to be a heatwave though - maxes around 16C-21C probably. Decent enough for a barbie if you can keep out of the wind!

ECM0-192.GIF?11-12

And this is a very nice mean chart at T192. At least a couple of good days to follow if this verifies

EDM1-192.GIF?11-12

Edited by Man With Beard
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