Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Summer Sun]

Just now, Gordon Webb said:

explains why the met office app had 17 degress and heavy showers for Tuesday thought it had a temporary insanity moment

Here's Tuesday chart

[Frosty.]

20 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

I for one  don't want it to remain dry. No  meaningful rain for nearly 2 weeks, just constant sun. 

It seems like you are complaining about too much sun while southern, central and eastern areas have had persistent cool n'ly / ne'ly winds and a cloud fest with some rain at times for several days...well the tables will turn with a more typical nw / se split in the not too distant future according to the models and the met office, so that should cheer you up!

[Chris.R]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It seems like you are complaining about too much sun while southern, central and eastern areas have had persistent cool n'ly / ne'ly winds and a cloud fest with some rain at times for several days...well the tables will turn with a more typical nw / se split in the not too distant future according to the models and the met office, so that should cheer you up!

Well i'm a thunderstorm  enthusiast so I'm a bit  biased. I am enjoying the sun don't get me wrong, it's just a bit boring.  Lol

[northwestsnow]

ECM keeps the faith and its still mainly dry sunny and warm out until thursday, looking like we may squeeze Fri before the change eventually begins at the weekend..

[Man With Beard]

ECM fairly inline with its own ensembles and its 00Z run. The Atlantic trough is held up a little by another low out of the Canada that, in merging with it, holds it back:

  

 

[Summer Sun]

ECM has the breakdown at D9 and 10 before then plenty of settled and warm weather

[Frosty.]

The Eastern half of the UK has had a bad time this week with cool N / NE'ly winds and generally cloudy weather with rain at times but the Ecm 12z shows a big improvement from this weekend until late next week with a good deal of warm / very warm and settled weather to look forward to which the west and north west of the UK has been enjoying this week.

[Singularity]

The breakdown has become dependent on the extent to which movement of very warm air toward the Azores region by a tropical cyclone beefs up the jet stream.

GFS develops an unseasonably strong jet streak (section of near-straight jet stream winds), and ECM clearly does the same given how quickly and directly it brings across the low pressure systems days 9-10. Without the stronger jet, the pattern looks good for retaining the trough out west of the UK. There are hints from longer-range model output that this may attempt to re-establish soon after mid-month (the level of success dependent largely on GLAAM behaviour, I expect). Assuming, that is, that it comes our way in the first place; the shift across to the UK seems to have remained in the 9-10 day range for the past three or four days now. Delay it much more and a trough leaving the U.S. is likely to get involved, potentially retrograding the Atlantic trough, or at least keeping it quasi-stationary.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Awful downgrade on gfs for next weeks "heat". Sunday/Monday looking like the warmest days with the rest of the week just peaking at or above 22c before the that trough arrives that will probably sit over us for the summer.     

[Summer Sun]

4 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Awful downgrade on gfs for next weeks "heat". Sunday/Monday looking like the warmest days with the rest of the week just peaking at or above 22c before the that trough arrives that will probably sit over us for the summer.     

All will depend on cloud cover any prolonged clear spells temperatures will respond nicely

[cheese]

8 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Awful downgrade on gfs for next weeks "heat". Sunday/Monday looking like the warmest days with the rest of the week just peaking at or above 22c before the that trough arrives that will probably sit over us for the summer.     

Why is it awful? I see widespread low 20s. Pleasant weather, appropriate for early June.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

All will depend on cloud cover any prolonged clear spells temperatures will respond nicely

Agreed SS, I can't see anything to moan about, it will be turning much warmer from tomorrow onwards for the areas which have been disappointingly cool, cloudy, damp and breezy (NE / E / S / SE...good riddance to that vile N / NE'ly airflow!

[Captain Shortwave]

5 minutes ago, cheese said:

Why is it awful? I see widespread low 20s. Pleasant weather, appropriate for early June.

There is some precipitation around suggesting quite a few heavy and thundery showers. I suspect temperatures will reach the low to mid twenties widely away from the coasts where sea breezes will develop. The daily high could be anywhere in the UK over the coming week. It does look like the weather will be pretty warm or very warm with showers until the end of next week where the Atlantic could potentially break through. But that is a long way off and I do suspect a breakdown will probably get delayed by a few more days as high pressure is more resilient.

[Matthew.]

According to another post the warming waters well over in the NW Atlantic could really aid developing High Pressure systems which is also linked to the cold water to the immediate Nw of the Uk. High pressure may be very stubborn to give in this month!

[Gordon Webb]

1 hour ago, 40*C said:

Awful downgrade on gfs for next weeks "heat". Sunday/Monday looking like the warmest days with the rest of the week just peaking at or above 22c before the that trough arrives that will probably sit over us for the summer.     

after a week of cloud occasional rain ne breeze and about 15c 22c won't be too bad beside IMO the other extreme is just as bad so a happy medium will do me just fine

[Richard Taylor]

Someone moaning about 'low 20s C'? Believe me after the cool cloudy rubbish we have had to put up with here over the past week I would be very happy indeed to have low 20s!

[markyo]

9 hours ago, 40*C said:

Awful downgrade on gfs for next weeks "heat". Sunday/Monday looking like the warmest days with the rest of the week just peaking at or above 22c before the that trough arrives that will probably sit over us for the summer.     

And whats wrong with 22c??? Very pleasant just right for most people.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, markyo said:

And whats wrong with 22c??? Very pleasant just right for most people.

ay but quoted member wants 40°C! but yes I prefer 22-25 C in summer, nothing lower or higher

[Polar Maritime]

As the saying goes, 'There's something for everyone'.. But what are the Model Outputs showing this morning?

[Jamesjane]

13 hours ago, Chris.R said:

I for one  don't want it to remain dry. No  meaningful rain for nearly 2 weeks, just constant sun. 

 

40 minutes ago, Richard Taylor said:

Someone moaning about 'low 20s C'? Believe me after the cool cloudy rubbish we have had to put up with here over the past week I would be very happy indeed to have low 20s!

 

[Frosty.]

32 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

As the saying goes, 'There's something for everyone'.. But what are the Model Outputs showing this morning?

Its looking good PM..turning warmer with a southerly flow instead of that vile NE'ly. We will all see sunshine but with an increasing risk of thundery showers...very nice early summer weather. Time for a BBQ

[Polar Maritime]

17 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Its looking good PM..turning warmer with a southerly flow instead of that vile NE'ly. We will all see sunshine but with an increasing risk of thundery showers...very nice early summer weather. Time for a BBQ

It's certainly looking very pleasant Karl next week. As the Net/W in house M-R Model shows temps into the mid 20's on the whole for Wednesday, With the chance of storms popping up for some. Some nice early Summer conditions to be had on the way.

Edited June 4, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Summer Sun]

At D10 ECM takes us back to something cooler

GFS is a bit warmer though still unsettled

 

[stainesbloke]

42 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

At D10 ECM takes us back to something cooler

GFS is a bit warmer though still unsettled

 

Yes, a very poor end to the ECM run, straight back to cold and cloud. Had my fill of that thanks! Let's hope the GFS is more on the mark.

[Frosty.]

I'm not concerned about what the Ecm 00z shows at T+240 hours since it hardly ever verifies at that range. I'm more interested in what we have inside the reliable timeframe which is nationwide warmth and sunshine with a scattering of heavy showers and T-Storms being sparked by the high temps and increasing humidity from the continental southerly.. in my opinion the coming days show very good early summer weather and a welcome change for the eastern half of the UK which has endured a vile spell of NE'ly muck.. Enjoy the warmth!