Summer 2016

[sundog]

Accuweather--

'Bouts of rain will suppress heat in the UK and Ireland this summer.

Hp to the west of Ireland and the UK will keep extreme heat at bay and also direct Atlantic depressions between Iceland and the British Isles.....................'

[weatherguru14]

Spoiler

 

yet accuweather long range forecasts for mid june on wards  looks outstanding..thats if you look at their month ahead thingymebob.. I have to laugh at weather online long range forecasts, They are unsure about June. But have a half decent  july.. How the hell can you be unsure about June but be sure about July?. the bbc and the met office cant even get the next 2 weeks correct the so called warm up settled spell keeeeeeps getting pushed back.  like it always does this time of your.. wait untill next week untill the weekend untill  10 days time. untiill back end of nextweek etc..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 hours ago, sundog said:

Accuweather--

'Bouts of rain will suppress heat in the UK and Ireland this summer.

Hp to the west of Ireland and the UK will keep extreme heat at bay and also direct Atlantic depressions between Iceland and the British Isles.....................'

reads more like a Dec-Jan forecast, except for heat at bay

[stainesbloke]

8 hours ago, sundog said:

Accuweather going for a poor summer for the BI

 

Poor summer for the north maybe, the S/SE looks ok though? 'Shots of heat' sound ok to me as long as the shots last a few weeks at a time 

Edited May 15, 2016 by stainesbloke

[cheeky_monkey]

13 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Poor summer for the north maybe, the S/SE looks ok though? 'Shots of heat' sound ok to me as long as the shots last a few weeks at a time 

 few days more like... as long as it dry im not fussed..dry and warm would suit..but no heat fest...London is a horrible place to be during long hot spells.

[stainesbloke]

26 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

 few days more like... as long as it dry im not fussed..dry and warm would suit..but no heat fest...London is a horrible place to be during long hot spells.

A properly warm summer would be good; for me living near London, warm is anything above 24C. Doesn't need to be hot (28C+) but long periods of temps between 24-28C would be absolutely perfect! Not so for tube travellers I suspect lol...but if you've ever been on the New York subway during a heatwave there, you'd realise London not so bad!

[lassie23]

6 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

A properly warm summer would be good; for me living near London, warm is anything above 24C. Doesn't need to be hot (28C+) but long periods of temps between 24-28C would be absolutely perfect! Not so for tube travellers I suspect lol...but if you've ever been on the New York subway during a heatwave there, you'd realise London not so bad!

I'm going for a long hot summer with 40c being reached somewhere, I'll stick my neck out and say it will not be the Shetlands that hits 40c

[Nouska]

The likely summer SST profile is rare in the last century, what sort of influence will this have on our summer? 

The tropical analogues that Levi Cowan offers on his latest video blog are not great. Those factors and a possibility of record low Arctic ice - the so frequent, of late, uncharted territory bit - where will it take us in our summer fortunes.

For those who don't have time or inclination to watch, top analogues are '85 and '88 - '70, '73, and '07 are also in the running.

 

[wishingforsnow]

On 15 May 2016 at 12:41, sundog said:

Accuweather--

'Bouts of rain will suppress heat in the UK and Ireland this summer.

Hp to the west of Ireland and the UK will keep extreme heat at bay and also direct Atlantic depressions between Iceland and the British Isles.....................'

Just for reference:

http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2013-europe-summer-forecast/13458131

What followed was the UK receiving the best spell of summer weather in 7 years 

Regarding the tropical analogues, and record low Arctic ice - what will make or break the summer remains La Nina. Currently a flip to La Nina is still favoured to be August at the earliest with the most likely period being August into early Autumn. A lot of poor summers of the likes of 2007 were caused by a combination of an early flip to La Nina following a weaker Nino just before or at the start of the Summer season (hence the weather in Summer 2007 turning rapidly unsettled in early/mid May and pretty much staying that way until September) and the tropical analogues. If the flip to La Nina holds off until Autumn or late Summer, I think it will be at best a predominately very warm summer and at worst a mixed bag with good periods of warm weather 

Edited May 16, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Weather-history]

On 15 May 2016 at 12:41, sundog said:

Accuweather--

'Bouts of rain will suppress heat in the UK and Ireland this summer.

Hp to the west of Ireland and the UK will keep extreme heat at bay and also direct Atlantic depressions between Iceland and the British Isles.....................'

Their winter forecast for 2015-16 was out. Infact, it didn't make any logical sense if we remember.

[sundog]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Their winter forecast for 2015-16 was out. Infact, it didn't make any logical sense if we remember.

Yes they were wrong about last winter.  I think their summer forecast will be wrong too or a least our summer wont be as bad as they suggest.

I would go for a  decent first half of summer with a poorer second half but not bad overall.

[northwestsnow]

Matt Hugo suggesting a warm mainly dry summer over on TWO.

[Summer Sun]

Final summer outlook from Matt Hugo 

Summary

My conclusion given the last 6 weeks of updates and analysis is that there has been a trend within the seasonal models and the overall thinking is that the coming summer for the UK will be potentially warmer and drier than average. This, as a result, highlights the potential for a good summer overall across the UK and as indicated earlier in the document, no doubt there will be a number of noteworthy spells of hot weather this summer across the UK, perhaps particularly so during June and July.

There remains some tentative signs and trends mind for perhaps the latter half of the summer to become more unsettled and that prediction remains. As a result some of the ‘best’ conditions this summer may be in June and July, with August potentially providing more in the way of changeable and unsettled conditions.

A review of the summer period will be carried out at some point in September 2016.

Full outlook 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=3236&title=Summer+2016+update+6

Edited May 18, 2016 by Summer Sun

[reef]

So much of the globe is currently so far above average that I think we'd have to be exceptionally unlucky to record a below average summer this year. Whether its dry or not is another matter. I have a feeling with the thermal gradient this year being much lower it might be a summer of rather sluggish weather patterns. Hopefully that doesn't mean low pressure stuck over us but its quite possible!

[damianslaw]

With projected transition to La Nina - this is forecast to result in a much more active hurricane season.. we've had very quiet seasons recently. Not sure what impact this would have, but suspect it increases the chances for unsettled conditions during August - as tropical storms become caught in the jetstream, and depending on where they track, we would either end up with hot humid very wet weather, or cool cyclonic conditions.

Anyone have any stats for La Nina summers and August weather. 

Longer term - I think there is some correlation between active hurricane years and cold settled late autumns/early winters..

[cheese]

1995 was La Nina.. and we all know what kind of August we had. 1995 was also a very active Atlantic hurricane season, with a number of ex hurricanes within the UK's vicinity. 

So, that gives hope, if nothing else, lol.

Edited May 18, 2016 by cheese

[Thundery wintry showers]

For "transitioning from El Nino into La Nina", which looks likely to happen this summer, we have:

1973- a pretty mixed summer, warmish June and August, cool July, and quite wet in the August, with heatwave in early September

1988- dry June, albeit dull over most of England, then an infamous washout July dominated by westerlies, changeable westerlies continued in August but not as much as in July

1995- cool first half of June which was cloudy in the east, otherwise a memorable hot dry sunny summer, especially late July and August

1998- dull wet June, cool cloudy westerly July, a north-south split in August with dry sunny weather in the south, fairly cloudy in the north

2007- exceptional rainfall in June and July led to flooding, cool but fairly dry and sunny August for most

2010- warm dry sunny June, NW-SE split in July which was very warm in the SE but very dull in the west, August was cool, dull and wet in the south but sunnier in the NW

So a pretty mixed bag really!   In terms of ENSO I think the nearest matches are 1973 and 1998.

Edited May 18, 2016 by Thundery wintry showers

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, cheese said:

1995 was La Nina.. just saying.

I have a suspicion that 1975 and 1976 were also La Nina years??

[Thundery wintry showers]

There was a marked La Nina in the winter of 1975/76 but it did not follow an El Nino.

Edited May 18, 2016 by Thundery wintry showers

[cheese]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I have a suspicion that 1975 and 1976 were also La Nina years??

1975 was indeed La Nina.

I suspect it will come down to how quickly La Nina forms and how strong La Nina is this year. Some models say we will be in full-blown La Nina by June while others put it off until August or September. Nino 

I saw this on another forum..

Quote

So I looked at all of the years when El Niño switched to La Niña. This switch to colder water has occurred nine times since 1950.

The switch to La Niña happened in 1954, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1988, 1995, 1998, 2007, 2010.

So some good years mixed in, some bad ones too. Any stats on summers of 1954, 1964, 1970 etc?

Edited May 18, 2016 by cheese

[Thundery wintry showers]

Note that 1995 is quite a weak analogoue, it started with a weak El Nino and transitioned into weak La Nina conditions whereas this year we've started off with a monster El Nino.  

Another comparable El Nino, as well as 1973 and 1998, occurred in 1983, but on that occasion El Nino conditions persisted in the summer and the 1983/84 La Nina only set in during the last three months of the year.  1983 had a mixed June, a record-breaking hot July, particularly in the south-west, and a dry sunny August.

[Methuselah]

The upshot is - that no-one knows what the upcoming summer will be like? My guess, for what it is worth (nothing!) is a substantially better summer than last year.

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

Note that 1995 is quite a weak analogoue, it started with a weak El Nino and transitioned into weak La Nina conditions whereas this year we've started off with a monster El Nino.  

Another comparable El Nino, as well as 1973 and 1998, occurred in 1983, but on that occasion El Nino conditions persisted in the summer and the 1983/84 La Nina only set in during the last three months of the year.  1983 had a mixed June, a record-breaking hot July, particularly in the south-west, and a dry sunny August.

But 35C was recorded at RAF Mildenhall in August 1973, according to the late Michael Hunt (Anglia). I know that the summer of 1973 was nothing out of the ordinary but - following the 'summers' of the 1960s - it was something else??

I was in the NW Highlands in 1989 and 1990, and both of those summers were excellent!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Aye, Trevor Harley said this:

Quote

August. Augusts in the 60s and early 70s tended to be rather tame affairs: at 16.5C CET, this was the warmest since 1959. It was also a wet month, and was windy at times in the N and W. The first ten days were unsettled and dominated by westerlies. There was a heavy thunderstorm in the SE on the 1st, with 68 mm of rain in 45 minutes at Balham. 110 mm of rain fell in parts of Wales on the 5th. There was a mini-heatwave midmonth that I remember quite clearly: Southampton was the place to be, with the hottest temperature of the year, 32.1C, on the 14th. A minimum of -4.5C reached at Lagganlia (Grampians) on the 21st; low temperatures in the Highlands were widespread that morning (e.g. -4.4 Grantown-on-Spey, -3.3 Inverdruie). There were some violent thunderstorms in the south on the 27th.

It may be that there were doubts over the 35C reading, but a max of 32.1C was still very notable for the period 1960-1974.

I didn't flag up 1989 and 1990 as analogues because 1989 was a "straight" La Nina year (rather than coming out of an El Nino) and 1990's ENSO was fairly neutral.  

According to the Met Office, July 1989 was Scotland's second-sunniest July in the past 86 years, beaten only by 1955, and was especially sunny in the west of Scotland region.  

Edited May 18, 2016 by Thundery wintry showers

[Weather-history]

20 hours ago, cheese said:

1975 was indeed La Nina.

I suspect it will come down to how quickly La Nina forms and how strong La Nina is this year. Some models say we will be in full-blown La Nina by June while others put it off until August or September. Nino 

I saw this on another forum..

So some good years mixed in, some bad ones too. Any stats on summers of 1954, 1964, 1970 etc?

1954 was a really bad one.