Summer 2016

[Wildswimmer Pete]

9 minutes ago, Nick L said:

The ECM then sweeps out the brief plume far quicker than the GFS too. Interesting times.

Looking at the jet stream forecast, was that feature in the last week what looks like a juicy Bartlett?

[Wildswimmer Pete]

Three water temps recorded over my camping weekend:

Irish Sea, Abergele, 20C (tide had come in over warm sands) - the top end of what I'd usually expect.

Llyn Brenig 18C.  Bandit swim in Dwr Cymru reservoir but we weren't caught by the warden.

Llyn Tegid (Bala) 19C. A little low, should be around 21C as it was last summer.

Didn't use my accurate glass thermo as it could've been broken amongst my kit.  My watch reads about 1C above ambient because my skin temp is slightly higher than the surrounding water.  Upper pic is at Abergele, the lower is from Bala.  Don't know where the Brenig one has gone.

Edited August 8, 2016 by Wildswimmer Pete

[Summer Sun]

Nice to see the beeb on board for next week

[cheese]

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

Haha, as I say that the EC comes out far cooler than the GFS for Monday and Tuesday. Nevertheless, still has temperatures into the mid-20s so very usable weather just with less discomfort! Wednesday still looking pretty hot in the east though.

I'm definitely on Team ECM tonight.

As long as the rest of August remains warm then I'm not bothered. Only thing I'm concerned about is any temporary plumes being shunted away by cool, unsettled weather. After the brief plume in July, the rest of the month remained warm with temps in the low to mid 20s, so I hope the same happens this time. Definitely don't want a repeat of July last year when the first day was hot and the rest of the month was crap.

Edited August 8, 2016 by cheese

[Summer Sun]

Brief hot spell

Some thunderstorms

Cooler end to the week?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/37015044

[stainesbloke]

13 minutes ago, cheese said:

As long as the rest of August remains warm then I'm not bothered. Only thing I'm concerned about is any temporary plumes being shunted away by cool, unsettled weather. After the brief plume in July, the rest of the month remained warm with temps in the low to mid 20s, so I hope the same happens this time. Definitely don't want a repeat of July last year when the first day was hot and the rest of the month was crap.

Yes agree with you, need a warm to hot August to balance out what we had earlier this summer, enough cool Atlantic filth for a while at least, I hope. Would be very nice to get some interesting convection going with the heat too.

Edited August 8, 2016 by stainesbloke

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Brief hot spell

Some thunderstorms

Cooler end to the week?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/37015044

not seen video bbc weather go out that far I dont think, kinda weather for week after, as week ahead is kinda this one

[Summer Sun]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not seen video bbc weather go out that far I dont think, kinda weather for week after, as week ahead is kinda this one

These forecasts go out to the 7 to 10-day range

[Frost HoIIow]

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

The ECM then sweeps out the brief plume far quicker than the GFS too. Interesting times.

Hopefully quicker still on the next runs. Until it ends up in the low countries instead.

Edited August 8, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[cheese]

Just now, Frost HoIIow said:

Hopefully quicker still on the next runs. Until it ends up in the low countries instead bypassing Britain.

You'll have plenty of cool, cloudy weather to enjoy until April next year - I think you'll be fine with 1 or 2 hot days!

[Frost HoIIow]

Just now, cheese said:

You'll have plenty of cool, cloudy weather to enjoy until April next year - I think you'll be fine with 1 or 2 hot days!

Alright, I won't begrudge you some heat 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Hopefully quicker still on the next runs. Until it ends up in the low countries instead.

bbc seems to be going with ECM, maybe GFS is underestimating the Atlantic, it often does

[William of Walworth]

34 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Nice to see the beeb on board for next week

In every other respect than a shortlived warm to hot spell early next week, BBC forecasts (generally, as well as in John Hammond's video) are not at all on board in my view.

I've been looking at the basic BBC forecast for Shropshire (near Bishop's Castle, where we're heading from Wednesday 10th until we leave on the morning of Monday 15th)

As weekends are much more important for most, cooler and more (white) cloudy for that area until Sunday looks less good than some other forecasts

For the heatwave to last only from Monday until next Wednesday (?), then to break down ahead of the w/e of Saturday 20th as honted at by the BBC, will make most summer preferrers hope the BBC is wrong.

Amnd that other model output is more correct. A lot of recent output from other sources shows HP dominated and warmer/sunnier more generally than just for the SE. Both for this coming weekend and for that of Saturday 20th.

Edited August 8, 2016 by William of Walworth

[cheese]

 

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

bbc seems to be going with ECM, maybe GFS is underestimating the Atlantic, it often does

Thought it was the opposite - GFS more progressive normally. 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

bbc seems to be going with ECM, maybe GFS is underestimating the Atlantic, it often does

Except in the wintertime, when it's accused of being too 'progressive'?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Except in the wintertime, when it's accused of being too 'progressive'?

but then it's correct Ed

[William of Walworth]

I don't get all this three day extreme plume obsession anyway. I'm fine with very hot, but 22C and no storms for ten days in a generallly stable HP-cell-dominated ten day spell much beats unstable 33C plume for a very short spell in my book.

[lassie23]

It never is a brief hot spell in the SE, always hangs on for four to five days more than expected. Still waiting for the cooler nights which were predicted to arrive two weeks ago

Edited August 8, 2016 by lassie23

[cheese]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Except in the wintertime, when it's accused of being too 'progressive'?

Think 'I remember Atlantic' says what he wants when it suits him.. 

[MP-R]

As the white cloud/pokey sun is used far too freely, often when there's no clue how clear or cloudy it will be, just how sunny are we expecting it to be this weekend. I can't see evidence from the charts that it will be cloudy away from the northwest.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, William of Walworth said:

I don't get all this three day extreme plume obsession anyway. I'm fine with very hot, but 22C and no storms for ten days in a generallly stable HP-cell-dominated ten day spell much beats unstable 33C plume for a very short spell in my book.

opposite to a winter 'toppler' fridays usually, and only Scotland seems to see snow

[cheese]

2 minutes ago, MP-R said:

As the white cloud/pokey sun is used far too freely, often when there's no clue how clear or cloudy it will be, just how sunny are we expecting it to be this weekend. I can't see evidence from the charts that it will be cloudy away from the northwest.

Depends. Saturday looks potentially cloudy here, Sunday looking warmer and sunnier. Don't think the nationwide warmth and sun will occur until Sunday.

Edited August 8, 2016 by cheese

[Frost HoIIow]

1 minute ago, William of Walworth said:

I don't get all this three day extreme plume obsession anyway. I'm fine with very hot, but 22C and no storms for ten days in a generallly stable HP-cell-dominated ten day spell much beats unstable 33C plume for a very short spell in my book.

Rarely do we get lasting HP in Summer these days, every now and then we seem to get these plume type of things that rarely last longer than a couple of days. Another example was the start of July last year with the hottest July day on record but part of an otherwise unremarkable Summer.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, cheese said:

Think 'I remember Atlantic' says what he wants when it suits him.. 

But, and let's be fair cheese, I think we all do?

[cheese]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But, and let's be fair cheese, I think we all do?

Me? Never.