Summer 2016

[Weather-history]

Being a weather historian, I have to question personal memories. Yes, they are good for general recall of events but with the rose coloured glasses effect. 

I use a summer index . Worst summers for Manchester

1954 143
1907 147
1956 155
1912 156
1924 158
2012 164
2008 168
1987 169
1946 170
1909 171
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
1920 174
1923 174
2007 174
1927 175
1948 176
1938 177
1922 178
2011 179
1985 180
1958 184
1972 185
1916 188
1986 189
1965 189
1910 190
1936 190
1988 191
2010 191
1966 192
1998 192
1953 193
1963 194
1993 194
2009 194

[weatherguru14]

Not that great  today.. looking like a decent enough day tomorrow after the rain goes through early on in my location. about 20c and light winds.. settle for that

[markyo]

Never has one person been so so glad for cool temps and a office cock up together. Was booked to service a item of kit at a Horse stud farm last tuesday just outside Birmingham,office cockup ment i went today.Was shown into this small barn and this lovely lady said "oh it's just over there in the corner" with the arm and hand she'd just removed from the back end of this very large horse. Needless to say the fragrance was not good,20c yes bearable,last tuesday no!! 2Hours in that 20c was enough. Stuff the aircon had the windows open driving back home!

 

[cheese]

16 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

If the below average rainfall continues through August and into autumn we may start and see some issues with water shortages 

After all the rain we had in Nov and Dec I should hope not! River Aire in Leeds is running below average but I suspect the reservoirs are full.

[cheese]

11 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Although not abnormally cool or wet i would say that this summer has been abnormally westerly and abnormally homogeneous in the sense that until last week there was nothing we could consider a proper warm spell up here (even transiently, it's unusual in Leeds to go from the 3rd June to 19th July with not a day above 25C).

One could probably sumise that the lack of a real warm spell is because this summer has been abnormally mobile but the lack of temperature or precipitation extremes can be explained by this mobility occuring north of the UK. 

I would agree. I don't think July has been too bad though - it's certainly redeemed itself, kind of. It will end up cloudier than average again though. 

Thursday is looking appalling - BBC show afternoon temps of 15C here! Today is looking nice though - after this rain moves through

Edited July 27, 2016 by cheese

[carinthian]

18 hours ago, carinthian said:

Just another view on Summer 2016 in the Eastern Alps. The summer is very different to last years scorcher and drought conditions. Plenty of cloudy days so far. More showers today in the mountains with some storms likely further south of here. Should be a good night for spark watching, hopefully if the lower cloud base recedes. Still can see patches of snow down to fairly low levels on the Northern slopes of the local mountain ranges.

 C

Morning all, another cloudy day arrives, though not much wind and fairly warm. No storms at the moment but watching how a big one kicking off at the moment over Milan/ Lake Como region of the Alps develops.

 C

[B87]

Predictions people...

Will August buck the trend of the past 11 years and record average/above average sun, or will the August gloom continue into a 12th year (and leave summer 2016 on 0/3 for average sun months)?

[cheeky_monkey]

15 minutes ago, B87 said:

Predictions people...

Will August buck the trend of the past 11 years and record average/above average sun, or will the August gloom continue into a 12th year (and leave summer 2016 on 0/3 for average sun months)?

Not fussed tbh..as long as it reasonably dry

[cheeky_monkey]

20 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Being a weather historian, I have to question personal memories. Yes, they are good for general recall of events but with the rose coloured glasses effect. 

I use a summer index . Worst summers for Manchester

1954 143
1907 147
1956 155
1912 156
1924 158
2012 164
2008 168
1987 169
1946 170
1909 171
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
1920 174
1923 174
2007 174
1927 175
1948 176
1938 177
1922 178
2011 179
1985 180
1958 184
1972 185
1916 188
1986 189
1965 189
1910 190
1936 190
1988 191
2010 191
1966 192
1998 192
1953 193
1963 194
1993 194
2009 194

memories do indeed play tricks on you sometimes...sometimes not ..I remember 2007 being far worse than 2008 not so according to this..1980 I remember as being cool/cold even though I was pretty young but I do see its a fair way up the scale..i would have thought 1985 would have been near the top as I remember that as being a stinker..but 1987 is there instead and I don't remember that as being worse than 85 or 86.

[B87]

7 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Not fussed tbh..as long as it reasonably dry

I'd be happy for summer months to record below average sun, as long as they manage to at least get 200 hrs.   The last 10 years have averages 150-180 hrs per month, which usually means temps are suppressed as well. 

 

How is that summer index above calculated? Does it use average highs, sun and rainfall?

Edited July 27, 2016 by B87

[stainesbloke]

44 minutes ago, B87 said:

Predictions people...

Will August buck the trend of the past 11 years and record average/above average sun, or will the August gloom continue into a 12th year (and leave summer 2016 on 0/3 for average sun months)?

Fervently hoping for above average sunshine and temperatures this August. Long overdue!

[markyo]

 

1 hour ago, B87 said:

Predictions people...

Will August buck the trend of the past 11 years and record average/above average sun, or will the August gloom continue into a 12th year (and leave summer 2016 on 0/3 for average sun months)?

Going for a middling August,may be one warm spell,not hot but 23/24c range. Apart from that I fear just cloud and a continuation of what we have now,just to mobile I feel this summer

[Wildswimmer Pete]

Looking at expected maxima this weekend: tomorrow 28th:16C, Friday:16C, Saturday 15C, Sunday 13C!!, Monday 1st 12C!!!  Aren't the last week of July and the first week of August supposed to be hottest time of the year?

[B87]

1 minute ago, markyo said:

 

Going for a middling August,may be one warm spell,not hot but 23/24c range. Apart from that I fear just cloud and a continuation of what we have now,just to mobile I feel this summer

An average of 23-24c and 200-210 hrs sun would be what we'd expect for August, though the last 10 years it has only averaged 22c with 150 hrs sun.

[cheese]

9 minutes ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

Looking at expected maxima this weekend: tomorrow 28th:16C, Friday:16C, Saturday 15C, Sunday 13C!!, Monday 1st 12C!!!  Aren't the last week of July and the first week of August supposed to be hottest time of the year?

I believe 25 July-7 August is the warmest 2-week period of the year, yes. I see nothing that low here - highs generally around 20C. 

[B87]

30 minutes ago, cheese said:

I believe 25 July-7 August is the warmest 2-week period of the year, yes. I see nothing that low here - highs generally around 20C. 

That period here has average highs around 24.1 - 24.2c, with the warmest individual days around 24.5c.  Our forecast for the next 2 weeks looks about average, highs mostly 23-26c with the occasional 21c or 27c day.

[Wildswimmer Pete]

1 hour ago, cheese said:

I believe 25 July-7 August is the warmest 2-week period of the year, yes. I see nothing that low here - highs generally around 20C. 

The figures I quoted were from Netweather's own 7-day forecast for Runcorn.

[interested & confused]

Here the forecast is - 28th max 16C up to 100% cloud, 29th max 16C up to 95% cloud, 30th max 16C up to 100% cloud, 31st max 15C up to 100% cloud, 1st max 15C up to 100% cloud clearing after lunch, 2nd max 17C up to 95% sunny spells YAY! sunny days and warmer after that, but no doubt things will change before then.   

 

So another cloudy week in the offing

 

[Nick L]

Peculiar how it's been a really quite humid month yet rainfall (around here at least) has been low.

[March]

11 minutes ago, interested & confused said:

Here the forecast is - 28th max 16C up to 100% cloud, 29th max 16C up to 95% cloud, 30th max 16C up to 100% cloud, 31st max 15C up to 100% cloud, 1st max 15C up to 100% cloud clearing after lunch, 2nd max 17C up to 95% sunny spells YAY! sunny days and warmer after that, but no doubt things will change before then.   

 

So another cloudy week in the offing

 

I don't think that's the Ashford forecast tbh. 

[Thundery wintry showers]

June's maximum temperatures had a NW-SE split, with the south-east and some North Sea coasts having slightly below average maxima (more than offset by high minima) but in most of the west, the positive anomaly was comparably high by day and night in many areas.  This was reflected by the sunshine figures: an extremely dull June in the south-east (where it was also wet) but only slightly below average sunshine for much of Scotland and northern England.

I expected July to be cloudy and westerly-dominated, but didn't expect the brief heatwave last week which has lifted the month's mean temperature above the long-term normal in most areas, including the Central England Temperature zone.  July 2016 hasn't been particularly wet in many parts of the east and south, but the frequency of rain (rather than the quantity) and shortage of sunshine fuels the general perception of a poor summer month.  I remember Philip Eden in Weather Log said the same of July 1998 in the Midlands, south-east and East Anglia, where the month was actually dry despite being unsettled, cool and fairly cloudy.

Edited July 27, 2016 by Thundery wintry showers

[markyo]

Looking forward to the cooler conditions thursday,got a tough day ahead and the drop in temp will be soooo welcome. Just hope August remains fresh and cloud free,nice breeze,low humidity.....yeah bout as much chance as snow as christmas!

[B87]

5 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

June's maximum temperatures had a NW-SE split, with the south-east and some North Sea coasts having slightly below average maxima (more than offset by high minima) but in most of the west, the positive anomaly was comparably high by day and night in many areas.  This was reflected by the sunshine figures: an extremely dull June in the south-east (where it was also wet) but only slightly below average sunshine for much of Scotland and northern England.

I expected July to be cloudy and westerly-dominated, but didn't expect the brief heatwave last week which has lifted the month's mean temperature above the long-term normal in most areas, including the Central England Temperature zone.  July 2016 hasn't been particularly wet in many parts of the east and south, but the frequency of rain (rather than the quantity) and shortage of sunshine fuels the general perception of a poor summer month.  I remember Philip Eden in Weather Log said the same of July 1998 in the Midlands, south-east and East Anglia, where the month was actually dry despite being unsettled, cool and fairly cloudy.

That description reminds me of July 2010 here; it was warm and dry with an average high of 25.0c and 18.0mm rain, but it was an extremely cloudy month, with only 161.8 hrs of sun.  I hear that outside the SE, it was a complete disaster?

[March]

14 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

June's maximum temperatures had a NW-SE split, with the south-east and some North Sea coasts having slightly below average maxima (more than offset by high minima) but in most of the west, the positive anomaly was comparably high by day and night in many areas.  This was reflected by the sunshine figures: an extremely dull June in the south-east (where it was also wet) but only slightly below average sunshine for much of Scotland and northern England.

I expected July to be cloudy and westerly-dominated, but didn't expect the brief heatwave last week which has lifted the month's mean temperature above the long-term normal in most areas, including the Central England Temperature zone.  July 2016 hasn't been particularly wet in many parts of the east and south, but the frequency of rain (rather than the quantity) and shortage of sunshine fuels the general perception of a poor summer month.  I remember Philip Eden in Weather Log said the same of July 1998 in the Midlands, south-east and East Anglia, where the month was actually dry despite being unsettled, cool and fairly cloudy.

This myth is getting out of hand. Most of the South East's maximums were well within the average range for June, and there were as many areas with slightly above average Maximums as slightly below, including North Sea coasts. The frequency of rain in July has been just as low as the totals. Only 4 days have exceeded 1mm here and it certainly has been noticeably dry. It's felt like a normal summer month, not poor at all. 

Edited July 27, 2016 by March

[B87]

16 minutes ago, March said:

This myth is getting out of hand. Most of the South East's maximums were well within the average range for June, and there were as many areas with slightly above average Maximums as slightly below, including North Sea coasts. The frequency of rain in July has been just as low as the totals. Only 4 days have exceeded 1mm here and it certainly has been noticeably dry. It's felt like a normal summer month, not poor at all. 

Though June here only had 49% of the average sunshine, and was the dullest on record, smashing the previous record set in 2012 by a long way!

I posted this on another forum, it's the average high and sun hours for each August since 2000, showing the change from average months to awful months in 2006.

2000: 23.2c / 211.4 hrs
2001: 23.5c / 210.9 hrs
2002: 23.3c / 190.4 hrs
2003: 26.4c / 255.3 hrs
2004: 23.8c / 213.3 hrs
2005: 23.2c / 250.4 hrs
2006: 22.2c / 140.2 hrs
2007: 21.5c / 192.6 hrs
2008: 21.5c / 104.3 hrs
2009: 23.9c / 167.6 hrs
2010: 21.6c / 110.9 hrs
2011: 21.8c / 144.1 hrs
2012: 23.5c / 182.6 hrs
2013: 24.3c / 198.7 hrs
2014: 21.7c / 183.6 hrs
2015: 22.2c / 134.1 hrs

All of the Augusts between 2000-2005 were what you would expect (except 2003), but from 2006 onwards it's been very difficult to get anything resembling normal.  2009 and 2012 had alright temps but were very cloudy, the only decent one there was in 2013, with highs about 1c above normal yet still cloudier than it should be.

Edited July 27, 2016 by B87