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Paul

Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

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With some rather warm uppers i would expect higher temperatures than what the GFS is currently showing for Saturday. Turning milder, possibly pleasantly warm later this week before cooler air moves in from the west for Sunday.

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Rtavn12617.gif

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I have some good things to say about the Gfs 12z op run, especially through low res (post T+192 hours) when high pressure gradually takes a firm grip of our weather, at least across the southern half of the uk with plenty of warm sunshine. In the meantime, the next few days look like sunshine and scattered showers, still quite breezy tomorrow but nothing like today further south and then lighter winds for the second half of the week, some of the showers are likely to be heavy with hail and thunder and cold enough to turn wintry on hills and with chilly nights so a risk of ground frosts, maybe even slight air frosts in rural areas for a time but then later this week a ridge of high pressure settles things down across the south / southeast of the uk whereas the NW of Britain eventually becomes more unsettled again with rain spilling in off the Atlantic. Next weekend looks largely fine across most of southern Britain on this run and becoming pleasantly milder, especially saturday with temps into the low to mid teens celsius but cooler air arriving from the west during sunday although still mild in the south..then further ahead things improve further as time goes on, as the charts below show.:)

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ukprec.png

ukmaxtemp.png

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h500slp (3).png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

h500slp (4).png

h500slp (5).png

ukmaxtemp (2).png

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hgt300.png

Edited by Frosty.

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The GEFS 6-10 this evening has some suggestion of height rises to the east and ridging mid Atlantic with a cut off low just west of Iberia. Although this tends to give a general westerly flow with low pressure tending to the SW/S this could suffer some interruptions to a more southerly quadrant. So generally dry with the more unsettled weather to the south and west with temps possibly a little above average. I suspect the ecm will not agree with this.

In the 10-15 period it reintroduces the trough to the NW but that's best left until the earlier period is sorted.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

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GFS pushes the Atlantic away by T144, with very little rain around. ECM gets it in much more with wet weather, particularly in the west

gfs-0-144.png?12

ECM1-144.GIF?28-0

Then, seeming agreement to push the Azores High towards us, but in proportion to the T144 charts

gfs-0-192.png?12

ECM1-216.GIF?28-0

So looking warmer and settled for the south by the middle of next week - but the north will be hoping the GFS is correct in order to join in.

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Good evening folks! A cold start to Spring continues as we head into April. Plenty of convective energy for some big downpours across the nation, and gfs and ecm taps into plenty cold at the day ten period! Ok , Winter is behind us , but with these synoptics  ,Spring jumps out of the box and delivers the Uks most exciting weather , expect just about any kinds of weather in the days ahead.........:)

spring coldx.png

spring coldx.png

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Guest

BRIEF REPORT - MARCH 28TH

This post is just to update those of you who have been following Judah Cohen’s weekly AO reports. I will not provide my usual updates on the AO ensemble indices, the MJO ensembles or my Arctic source temperatures this week. If Judah is right, the AO may trend sharply negative in early April with some colder impacts for northern Eurasia (probably including the UK) for the second half of April. This will obviously not produce any prolonged wintry weather at this time of year but possibly one or two late Arctic outbreaks. I’m sure that very few visitors to this site, including the Winter coldies, will want to see this further delay to significant Spring warmth.

I will produce one more report next week to coincide with Judah’s next report. This will be to see if his predictions will finally materialise and should be very close to the possible changes he expects. I will also include a final update to all my ensemble charts and Arctic source indicators. By then, we should have the latest “Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis” for March (due around April 2nd). They have just produced a general update today:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

This highlights the record low overall Arctic ice extent but does not break down the area changes for March. I noted the recent much colder conditions in the Svalbard area (in my last few reports) and in the last 10 days the polar ice sheet has finally extended to most of Svalbard. Although the east Baring Sea remains pretty ice free, the spread to Svalbard is a significant very recent change compared to the whole of the winter (and much of the previous two winters as well). It would probably make any high Arctic northerly outbreak colder than usual (for this time of year). Although the maximum ice extent was achieved on March 24th (at record low levels), there could still be a very late final recovery.

Dr Judah Cohen’s Latest Arctic Oscillation Report:

Judah Cohen has just updated his weekly AO report. Here is the link:

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

I now copy his “Summary” and “Impacts” directly from his report below (but you will need to use the link above if you wish to view all his charts and diagrams):

….”Summary

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently positive and is predicted to remain neural/positive though the end of next week. 

The neutral to positive AO is reflective of mostly negative pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the Arctic while pressure/geopotential height anomalies remain positive across the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic sector.

The AO is predicted to turn negative towards the end of week two in response to the slow descent of the negative AO from the stratosphere into the troposphere and building pressure/geopotential heights across the Arctic.

With the AO staying close to neutral temperature anomalies are mixed across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) continents.

However early next week temperatures will turn sharply colder over eastern North America as a western ridge and eastern trough pattern highly amplifies in part due to the ongoing “dripping” of the circulation response to the stratospheric polar vortex (PV) split earlier this month.

If the AO does turn sharply negative as predicted in the most recent model runs then below normal temperatures should become more widespread across Northern Eurasia and Eastern North America for the second half of April.

Impacts

I remain of the opinion that the large-scale NH extratropical circulation can be understood as responding to the mature phase of a troposphere-stratosphere-troposphere (T-S-T) coupling event.  The circulation anomalies associated with the large PV disruption that occurred earlier this month continue to “drip” from the stratosphere to the troposphere.  The first drip or downward descent occurred during the third week of March.  Another descent is predicted for the first week of April.  That descent will contribute to amplifying the western ridge eastern trough pattern across North America with strongly positive geopotential height anomalies centered along the west coast of North America and negative geopotential height anomalies across eastern North America.  This will result in a spring Arctic outbreak across eastern Canada and the Northeastern United States (US).  However the models are now predicting that the main descent of the circulation anomalies from the stratosphere to the troposphere will hold off until at least mid-April.  If the latest model forecast is correct then the tropospheric AO should turn decidedly negative and below normal temperatures should become more widespread across eastern North America but especially northern Eurasia”….

 

My Brief Comments on Judah Cohen’s Latest Update:

Judah Cohen has also included notes on his expectations for the next 30 days (refer to the full report for that). He says that there has been a gradual or staged propogation of the SSW through the troposphere. One of these was evident around March 21st (his original date for surface impacts) but the next stage will be delayed until early April. He still feels that the extent of the colder conditions will be dictated by the HLB and just how negative the AO will turn by later next week. Following the current northern hemisphere general warm up, Judah still expects this to be brief and then reversed. He then predicts colder conditions to persist for much of April.

So, I shall continue to look for any signs of Judah’s predictions in the main models (like today's GEM 12z days 7 to 10, T+168 to T+240 charts and the JMA for this period too). We may just achieve a brief warm spell around next weekend before things get pretty cold after that. Nothing unusual for Spring unless the colder conditions last for several weeks as Judah Cohen predicts!

 

Next Update:

Probably around Monday/Tuesday April 4th/5th.

 

Edited by Guest

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A quick look at the means from the latest EC32 update.

The anomaly for Weds 6th is not dissimilar to yesterdays EPS for the seventh

ecm_eps_z500a_nh_11.png

with the trough from NE Canada running SE to the NW of the UK with ridging over Scandinavia, This would tend towards an unsettled Pm NW/W flow with temps dipping below average from being slightly above previously.

During the period to the 14th April the amplification upstream gives way to a much flatter regime and the cold trough dissipates but the trough in the eastern Atlantic remains the dominate feature orientated N/S over the UK with ridging over Scandinavia. This leaves the UK under the influence of low pressure for the period portending a quite unsettled period, showers, brighter intervals, in fact the whole gamut of a standard April. Temps in general a little below average.

After that until the 24th there is no strong signal from the means except the trough disappears and HP becomes more influential within a slack zonal flow. Thus a much quieter spell of weather although temps remaining around average.

I certainly wouldn't like to read too much into this but for what it's worth the first couple of weeks of May continues with a zonal flow with LP to the NW and the Azores HP pushing up from the SW with temps remaining around average. But really that's best left for another day.

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY MAR 29TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A showery SW flow will be maintained across the UK, brisk in the South with a thundery trough moving NE across the South later today.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will be quite low given the time of year at around 2000-3000ft for most, low enough to see wintry precipitation in the form of showers affect the hills of the UK above around 2000ft.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with rain or showers at times but some drier spells too.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is moving in an Easterly direction across Northern France but later in the week it troughs South as low pressure develops over Spain with a ridge across Southern England. The flow then settles to the NW in a NE'ly direction for a time before many options look likely in Week 2 with the flow ebbing and flowing North and South across the Atlantic and Europe later.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a showery few days to come but with the trend towards drier conditions after in the week as winds fall slack and pressure rises steadily from the SW. A Low pressure trough feeds down from the NW later in the week, weakening as it does and stalling across Central Britain. Through next week it looks like after a dry spell with some sunshine more cool and unsettled conditions spread down from the NW with rain at times and then right at the end of the run slack pressure sets up again with a lot of dry and bright weather for most.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is similar to that of the Operational Run through the first week but then a drift away from the Operational through Week 2 as deep Low pressure eventually develops to the North of the UK with a strong mobile pattern of Westerly winds with gales, rain and showers return to all areas again as we move deeper into April.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show an 85% chance of Low pressure lying over or close to the UK with rain at times for all in cyclonic winds should it verify. The remaining 15% show High pressure to the SW and Westerly winds across the UK with Atlantic troughs likely to just affect the North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a brief drier and brighter interlude towards the end of the week with a ridge of High pressure from the SW responsible. However, a trough to the NW will move SE and stall across Central UK over the weekend while pressure falls gently everywhere resulting in more showery and unsettled weather again for many areas to end the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a weakening showery airflow across the UK through the rest of this week as pressure builds from the SW. However, it becomes squeezed by a trough moving down from the NW and Low pressure across Europe. The trough is shown to stall across the Central UK with warmer air wafting North across Southern districts for a time at the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM shows a changeable pattern across the UK in the coming 10 days as the current showery flow weakens in the coming days with a better end of the week for most as a weak ridge pushes across from the SW. Pressure then falls, partly responsible as a trough to the NW weakens and stalls across the Central parts of the UK with Low pressure becoming dominant from Europe and eventually lying across the UK with a very showery end to the period in temperatures no better than average levels.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows Low pressure sliding SE just to the West of the UK over the weekend with some rain at times, mostly in the West but some for all possible in fairly slack conditions by this time next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning shows a ridge of High pressure at the end of the week stretching up from the SW across England but instantly pushing it away SE over the weekend with SW winds and troughs affecting Britain with rain at times for the weekend and start to next week. Then after several days pressure builds again from the SW and this time it's fine weather becomes maintained across the South with troughs affecting the NW of the UK with further rain at times likely late in the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows High pressure to the SW and Low pressure to the North with Westerly winds over the UK with rain at times likely for all, as usual in these setups heaviest in the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A changeable period of weather for all is the main theme from the models this morning

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.8 pts to UKMO at 88.8 pts and GFS at 85.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.9 pts to 58.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 42.3 pts to 40.6 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  Well after a very volatile Easter weekend with my own experiences very much driven by Storm Katie with large hail, thunderstorms, storm force winds and heavy rain we are looking thankfully at a rather quieter interlude of weather as we move through the rest of this week. Having said that the showery airflow across the UK will weaken only slowly with several more days of heavy showers and sunny spells before drier weather develops thanks to a ridge of High pressure moving up from the SW at the end of the week. The problem is that a trough of Low pressure will be moving down from the NW and pushing the ridge away SE and allowing a SW flow to develop with rain at first restricted to areas around the vicinity of the trough becoming more widespread later as pressure gently falls across the UK. Thereafter, the pattern becomes much less clear with a lot of output suggesting a return to unsettled and showery conditions across the UK as Low pressure is shown in various guises between the models to lie close by backed by ensemble data. It seem the previous anticipations of High pressure building to the North and NE of the UK has become less likely over recent runs which means that with time it maybe that the most rain falls across the North and West with time rather than the South and West. Temperature wise looks somewhat indifferent today and while there maybe some mild air floating about there is also some colder charts shown too with the rest keeping things generally close to average. So in summary while the next week of weather looks fairly reliably stated in this morning's output details are far less clear as we look through the second week although thankfully there looks no repeat of any stormy weather in the South that we experienced down here over Easter Sunday Night. Unfortunately there are equally few signs of anything particularly settled and Springlike shown as yet either.

Next Update Wednesday March 30th 2016 from 09:00

Edited by Gibby

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There is a period when the GEFs slips the upper trough to the SW leading to the flow from the southerly quadrant and some quite warm temps. The ecm is not quite so bold leading to more westerly streamlines, the weather more unsettled particularly in the north, with much cooler temps. Fine lines and narrow margins spring to mind.

gefs_z500a_5d_eur_39.pnggefs_t2ma_5d_eur_39.pngecm_eps_z500a_5d_natl_10.png

Edited by knocker

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The Gfs 12z op run shows temperatures rising later this week with the weekend and first half of next week becoming rather warm for the time of year with temps eventually into the low to mid 60's F across the south of the uk. With the higher temperatures also comes higher pressure but not completely dry as early Sunday shows a spell of heavy rain with a risk of thunder spreading northwards but thereafter it becomes largely fine and warm under a ridge of high pressure from the azores. Later next week shows a polar maritime incursion with sunshine and showers, the showers falling as snow on northern hills and cold enough for slight overnight frosts but as I said, this run shows a considerable warm up before that, even the met office update mentions a warmer spell by the end of this week and early next week, at least for the south / southeast.:)

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ukmaxtemp (3).png

h500slp (2).png

ukmaxtemp (4).png

h850t850eu (1).png

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ukmaxtemp (5).png

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The GEFS anomalies this morning are looking at a brief warm spell with ridging to the east and the trough down to the SW. Ergo warm flow from the southerly quadrant so some pleasant weather in the south and east but perhaps not quite so in the NW. It is but short lived with an old friend the Canadian vortex once more exerting it's influence with a trough streaming SE over the UK into Europe thus the return of more unsettled weather with temps around average.

gefs_z500a_5d_eur_31.pnggefs_t2ma_5d_eur_31.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_53.png

Edited by knocker

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The Gfs 00z op run shows a real purple patch of fine and unseasonably warm weather, especially across the southern half of the uk with temps soaring into the high teens and even into the low 20's celsius further south for a time...BANK:D

ukmaxtemp (3).png

ukprec (2).png

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h500slp (1).png

ukmaxtemp (4).png

h500slp (2).png

ukmaxtemp (5).png

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY MAR 30TH 2016.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening Westerly flow will lie across the UK today with a ridge of High pressure developing NE from the SW across the UK tomorrow with the ridge then sliding SE on Friday as a strengthening SW flow ahead of a cold front moves SE late in the day

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain quite low given the time of year at around 2000-3000ft for most, low enough to see wintry precipitation in the form of showers affect the hills of the UK above around 2000ft though there will be less of them than recently.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Changeable with rain or showers at times but some drier spells too.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream will develop a NE flow across the UK later in the weekend before it dips South to the West of the UK while weakening through the early days of next week. The flow then becomes cut off to the South while the flow to the North remains stronger while still moving NE to the NW of us, Later in the run the flow moves South and travels East to the South of the UK with unsettled conditions returning to all of the UK under Low pressure. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the current situation of gently rising pressure in a weakening showery Westerly flow replaced by a ridge of High pressure moving across the UK towards the end of the working week. Over the weekend a cold front will move SE with some rain across the North and West with a few showery days then expected under warmer Southerly winds for a day or so. Then next week High pressure to the SW becomes instrumental with NW winds and cooler air with some rain from troughs moving SE down over the North and East at times. Then towards the end of the run the High is shown to recede with a stronger Westerly flow for all with rain at times for all and temperatures close to average.

GFS CONTROL RUN The only difference in the theme of the Control Run from the Operational offering today is the timing of the day to day events in the otherwise common theme described above.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show complete support for each other in that Low pressure is likely to be dominant, most likely centred towards the NW of the UK with winds from a west or NW flow. At worst 30% of members suggest Low pressure centred across the heart of the UK with a cocktail of rain and April showers very much the likely scenario in average temperatures at best.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a cold front moving SE at the start of the weekend stalling as Low pressure slips SE close to the SW. Rain in the North and West will be followed by a couple of warmer and showery days especially in the west and SW before High pressure builds towards the North by the middle of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a weakening showery airflow across the UK as a developing ridge of High pressure moves across the UK later this week. Following on the trough from the NW is shown to stall with slack pressure gradients likely for most and some showers towards the West. The last chart the 120hr chart will likely be modified tonight as the Low pressure complex it shows over the UK is looking less likely from more recent updates.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM looks less likely than some other output in developing much in the way of High pressure and drier weather next week. Instead it shows a complex showery situation developing next week as Low pressure meanders across the UK reinforced later by developments from the Northwest leaving the end of the run with Low pressure having moves SE across us and leaving a cold and showery end of the period in it's wake.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a weaker version of the GEM scenario with the showery period next week beginning to become reinforced from the NW too by this time next week therefore unlikely to support any long lasting settled period developing soon.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM has never really bought into the dry spell next week and this morning proves no exception with Low pressure regaining  control early next week with heavy showers and rain at times in lower temperatures looking likely after a warmer weekend. With the UK lying under a weakness in pressure with High pressure to the NE and SW further Low pressure is likely to dominate later in the run with further showers and rain at times in sometimes cool conditions for early April.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows an elongated Low pressure zone lying SE from Southern Greenland through the UK to NW Europe likely at the Day 10 time point indicating unsettled and showery conditions the most likely weather in 10 days in temperatures unspectacular for early April.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A changeable period of weather for all is the main theme from the models again this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.8 pts to UKMO at 88.9 pts and GFS at 85.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.5 pts to 59.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 43.1 pts to 41.0 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  I'm afraid I feel very underwhelmed and uninspired by this morning's output and I feel that feeling will be felt by many as the charts refuse to indicate any sustained period of dry and settled weather over the next few weeks. Having said that there will be some reasonable conditions around especially over the end of this week before a cold front throws a spanner in the works for the weekend as it stalls across Central areas along with it's rainfall. There will be clearer air to the NW of it and to the SE and with air moving North across the South it could become rather warmer for a time although showers will be a threat across SW regions at times. Then next week the majority of output suggests that lower pressure to the SW could affect more of the UK especially the South and it's this Low that acts as a pivotal point of the differences in model output this morning. UKMO at day 6 has this feature well to the South by then with High pressure ridging strongly across the North. However, most of the rest of the models including many members from the ensemble data indicate this Low as a catalyst to open the door to the NW in feeding more Low pressure down across the UK and return unsettled and at least showery conditions to the UK and more importantly dropping temperatures back to average or a little below which if it occurs is shown to be maintained for the rest of the period covered by the models this morning. So while I would love to be able to report a spell of fine and warm Spring weather developing across the UK through the start of April a whiff of warmth at the weekend looks pretty isolated in nature in an otherwise pretty benign set of weather charts hinging around Low pressure near to the UK with April showers the most likely outcome in temperatures close to average or a little below at times at best.

Next Update Thursday March 31st 2016 from 09:00

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GFS and ECMWF diverge t+120/144 onwards with regards the amplifying upper level trough digging S/SE into SW Europe later this weekend. GFS is quick to disrupt the trough to form a cut-off low over Iberia/Morocco next week, which allows the Azores high to ridge in across the UK. Whilst ECM keeps the trough intact for longer while drifting further east into Europe, keeping the UK under a much more unsettled and cyclonic regime.

comparison_144.JPGcomparison_168.JPG

Trouble is, the 00z GEFS 500mb mean/anomaly supports the 00z GFS operational, whilst the 00z EPS mean/anomaly supports the 00z EC deterministic. So none the wiser to which will be on the money! Though the GEFS mean/anomaly does return more cyclonic pattern from the NW day10 onwards.

 

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The NOAA 6-10 and the ecm are on the same page with the trough extending from N. Canada SE through the UK bringing unsettled weather , perhaps more to the west and north depending how far the Azores HP pushes NE. The NOAA 8-14 and the EPS 10-15 are in pretty fair agreement with the upper low in the vacinity of Ireland. Not good but maybe some typical April weather. The EPS does make rather more of the ridging in the western Atlantic thus the flow a tad more meridional

610day.03.gifecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.png814day.03.gif

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As some of you know, I like to accentuate the positives and the Gfs 6z op run shows a decent window of largely fine and very pleasantly warm weather, hopefully this will verify as I like warm, sunny weather.:)

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Well, allow me to accentuate the more negative.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

The Ensemble members at T+240 have a majority showing cool and unsettled conditions with LP close to or just north of the British Isles. Nothing very spring like there. The HLB option has now gone (just the odd Member) but there's equally little support for anyting settled so it does seem that after a brief transient warmer spell for some over the weekend the Atlantic rolls back and sets in for a spell with increasing rain, wind and cooler temperatures.

Not to sound too negative and in all fairness that will pass and the possibility of renewed height rises from the SW remains a strong player for the last third for April.

 

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The GFS 12z is looking good from Tomorrow on into the middle of next week with rising temperatures (which the bbc forecast has just mentioned) and more in the way of dry and sunny conditions. Scattered, possible heavy showers are a possibility on any day but it will all contribute towards a very Springlike mix of weather. And temperatures look like rising into the mid teens widely for the first time this year. Plus the UKMO is pretty much in agreement.

Rtavn10217.gif

....patiently awaits the ECM take on things.

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Nice warm continental SEly air flow develops on the Ukmo 12z with temps rising well into the 60's F which would be very good for early April and the Gfs 12z doesn't disappoint either with a good deal of largely fine and very mild / rather warm weather from the weekend until later next week, even a risk of thundery showers spreading up from the continent Sunday night into Monday but a lot of fine weather. Hopefully we will see some spring warmth, the signs are certainly promising.:)

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Good Evening All. Apart from some milder interludes over the next ten days the weather stays predominantly unsettled and with a good few colder shots , resulting in some lovely April showers!:):yahoo::D

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1 hour ago, Milhouse said:

 

 

....patiently awaits the ECM take on things.

LOL it wasn't worth the wait, another poor looking Ecm 12z which is yet again not interested in the fine warm weather indicated by the ukmo and gfs 12z. However, the ecm has been coming second best to the gfs quite often through the winter and spring so far so there is still reason to be hopeful for some welcome spring warmth on the way.

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6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

LOL it wasn't worth the wait, another poor looking Ecm 12z which is yet again not interested in the fine warm weather indicated by the ukmo and gfs 12z. However, the ecm has been coming second best to the gfs quite often through the winter and spring so far so there is still reason to be hopeful for some welcome spring warmth on the way.

Its clearly sticking to its guns and refusing to entertain any idea of a more high pressure influenced scenario. Quite ramarkable that that there is so much divergence at such a short timescale.

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2 minutes ago, Milhouse said:

Its clearly sticking to its guns and refusing to entertain any idea of a more high pressure influenced scenario. Quite ramarkable that that there is so much divergence at such a short timescale.

Agreed, I'm hoping the ecm is wrong about this yet again! I really would love some early spring warmth and settled weather and I'm sure I'm not alone in that.:)

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48 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

LOL it wasn't worth the wait, another poor looking Ecm 12z which is yet again not interested in the fine warm weather indicated by the ukmo and gfs 12z. However, the ecm has been coming second best to the gfs quite often through the winter and spring so far so there is still reason to be hopeful for some welcome spring warmth on the way.

I think if we look at both T+240 OP outputs they are not that different, and not warm or settled either.

They do fit reasonably well with the 500mb anomaly charts outputs as well, including that from NAEFS. Only GFS has any suggestion of the upper ridging from the Azores area being more dominant than a flow from north of west. Certainly a very long track but most suggest originating from fairly well north over North America, see examples below

 http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&map=1&runpara=

So out to 10 days, possibly longer, fairly changeable or unsettled rather than settled over much of the period.

It may well be that on a day to day basis there is/are occasional days with warmth into the SE corner but not so for the NW corner. Until the anomaly charts consistently show across all outputs upper ridging from the SW being dominant I think it best not to expect too much just yet.

 

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1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Good Evening All. Apart from some milder interludes over the next ten days the weather stays predominantly unsettled and with a good few colder shots , resulting in some lovely April showers!:):yahoo::D

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Yes very pleasing charts ANYWEATHER, i really enjoy a cool fresh feel, today was lovely in the sun, seems the models are confused over the T+72 hrs to T+96 hrs timeframe with warm SE'lys to cooler SW'lys, its interesting to see ECM OP runs never showing this warmer outlook for this weekend, that continues with tonights ECM 12Z.

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