Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[jvenge]

2 minutes ago, bryan629 said:

I really hope Joes not been reading the express to come up with that statement 

Models definately not showing a winters worth of snow at the moment .... 

Europe is a fairly big place as well....who knows where he is talking about.

For me it is looking unusually warm for the next few weeks on just about any model. Who wants cold and snow in March anyway?

[Eskimo]

Can't seem to post charts but the GFS 12z shows a far greater rash of showers pushing off the North Sea. Also low-res showed an area of snow pushing up from the southeast and affecting southeastern areas of England. 

[Cloud 10]

16 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Europe is a fairly big place as well....who knows where he is talking about.

For me it is looking unusually warm for the next few weeks on just about any model. Who wants cold and snow in March anyway?

 

About 99.9% of people on this thread.

[Eskimo]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes, now that I guess we are getting closer to the event, you can clearly see the GFS is picking up on shower activity from the North Sea. 

As an example

No example, I also can't post charts 

link http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=96&mode=2

 

 

Are you getting the same problem with regards to copy and pasting?

[karlos1983]

certainly looking less blocky on the UKMO after the weekend. Spring might not be that far away afterall 

[bobbydog]

19 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes, now that I guess we are getting closer to the event, you can clearly see the GFS is picking up on shower activity from the North Sea. 

As an example

No example, I also can't post charts 

link http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=96&mode=2

 

 

works for me...

[phil nw.]

Quite a stiff easterly on Saturday down south.

Will feel raw in the cold wind.GFS does show some showers blowing in of a wintry mix but they don't appear widespread or heavy and with 2mtr.temps showing 4-6C nothing to get too excited about.

 

Edited February 23, 2016 by phil nw.

[igloo]

looks cold to monday then turning milder again with the atlantic taking control once again. far cry from a few days ago with a greenland HP or a scandi HP being shown some places this season will not get a single flake lets hope for a repeat of a march 2011 which had temps in the 70s here and forget this season 

[Daniel*]

JMA is good out to 144 EDIT: Ignore 12z from yesterday  

UKMO lacklustre 

Edited February 23, 2016 by Daniel*

[phil nw.]

It looks like this GFS run follows the earlier ens with temperatures dropping off again from the north west after a brief warm up from a temporary Azores ridge.

00z ens   

nothing overly cold but certainly continuing the trend for a below average start to Spring.

[terrier]

13 minutes ago, igloo said:

looks cold to monday then turning milder again with the atlantic taking control once again. far cry from a few days ago with a greenland HP or a scandi HP being shown some places this season will not get a single flake lets hope for a repeat of a march 2011 which had temps in the 70s here and forget this season 

Yes but it doesn't really take control its a very brief ridge. Then we are all back into colder conditions once again. 

[Swave Snow]

2 hours ago, Paul said:

Ok, well I'm still not convinced of it as it doesn't look likely at all, but if you're happy it was snow then who am I to argue as I wasn't there! Guess we ought to get back to the models. 

I was in Hendon NW London and it hailed briefly after a few little snowflakes , feeling like being in the alps in spring when its sunny and warm on you, then that cold feeling the minute there is cloud cover. the hail was around 2.35pm

[andymusic]

europe getting a good pasting out in FI

[phil nw.]

We can see as we go through the frames that the Canadian vortex fragment is the killer for getting deeper cold here.The PV is being split with ridging upstream but it is always under pressure from the jet off the E.Seaboard. 

This late in the season the ideal setup for us for deeper cold is more of the split pv being over the Scandi/Russian side of the pole which would allow much better heights towards Greenland and direct Northerlies.

I am afraid these less cold north westerly shots just wont cut it if looking for lowland snowfall now. 

[winterof79]

5 minutes ago, terrier said:

Yes but it doesn't really take control its a very brief ridge. Then we are all back into colder conditions once again. 

Precisely.Cold until after the weekend.Then we are into a cold N/Westerly flow

Quickly followed by a cold Easterly flow from a cold source

 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

europe getting a good pasting out in FI

So joe B is right after all!

surely we could work out that a cold euro trough would lead to a forecast of snow over the continent early March? 

Remembering how how difficult it is to get widespread snowfall over the southern half of the UK in DJF, no surprise to see little promised for us over the next fortnight. 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

6 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Precisely.Cold until after the weekend.Then we are into a cold N/Westerly flow

Quickly followed by a cold Easterly flow from a cold source

 

But why even get caught up in anything past t144 . I understand that we look for trends but how many charts at even t144 come to fruition? It's a developing situation as ever and with the mjo lag and what looks to be another strat warming I'm sure the mods will change. 

[winterof79]

8 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

We can see as we go through the frames that the Canadian vortex fragment is the killer for getting deeper cold here.The PV is being split with ridging upstream but it is always under pressure from the jet off the E.Seaboard. 

This late in the season the ideal setup for us for deeper cold is more of the split pv being over the Scandi/Russian side of the pole which would allow much better heights towards Greenland and direct Northerlies.

I am afraid these less cold north westerly shots just wont cut it if looking for lowland snowfall now. 

I see your point but maybe we can squeeze a little more time if this propagates quickly enough

Yes I know it is late in the season but I would not rule a cold shot out after that.

[SLEETY]

getting colder and colder as we head into march then ,typical,always knew we would have a cold spring after the mildest winter ever 

 

[nick sussex]

Some nice synoptics on show but its a struggle to get some deep enough cold in. A month earlier and this wouldn't be such an issue but we really need some proper blocking to transport the coldest air out of the Arctic.

In terms of the MJO every model bar the UKMO takes that into phase 8 at varying amplitudes. The UKMO keeps this in phase 7.

At this time of year below average doesn't cut it, we need well below average! Its a bit frustrating because its a bit like biting into one of those nice looking chocolates and finding out they"ve got one of those horrible liqueur centres! The synoptics look good at face value but are struggling to deliver.

[Methuselah]

But March is a unique month, IMO: it's usually either an extension of winter (1979, 2013) or a prelude to summer(1976, 2012)...So I have no doubt that, if the model-suggested synoptics come right, we'll be quite likely to have cold and snow??

[IPredictASnowStorm]

Still showing it lol 

[Neilsouth]

5 minutes ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:

Still showing it lol 

 

Oh so it's the Sunday AFTER now is it? Next it will be April, we've already moved from Feb

[winterof79]

Thing is guys, never say never as it has made fools out of the best of us.

Here are a couple of cup half full charts. Then read the meteociel archive charts in conjunction with the link below

March2001

  1 foot N England and Scotland

March 1986

 Blizzard England

March 1987

  19th March 4" Southern and S/West England

Here you go folks fill your boots....You may be surprised

http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html

 

 

 

 

[Banbury]

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

certainly looking less blocky on the UKMO after the weekend. Spring might not be that far away afterall 

There is a while to go yet I'd imagine